Poisson Distribution Betting - Calculation of Outcome Probabilities in Sports Betting

What is the Poisson Distribution?

Poisson distribution is a betting system that you can use to predict the score of a sporting event. It is mostly popular among expert bettors who understand specific sports well. The betting strategy uses past statistics and other data to determine the number of goals likely to be scored in a match.

What Can Be Calculated Using the Poisson Distribution

The main advantage of Poisson distribution is that you can use the information to calculate the most likely scoreline of an event. The betting system also converts the estimated probabilities into betting odds. Once you understand the Poisson distribution system, you will not have any problems using mean average goals to determine the possible future scores.

Example of Calculating Outcome Probabilities and Converting Probabilities to Odds

Poisson Distribution is one of the best betting systems you can use to convert probabilities to odds.

For example, if you wish to bet on the 1X2 market of the Manchester United v Arsenal fixture and are interested in the Bet Value, you first need to gather their past statistics. After that, use your findings to calculate the probabilities of a Win, Draw, or Loss. Finally, use the formula odds = 1/probability to develop your odds. It is the same way all bookies come up with betting odds.

For Which Sports Bets Does the Poisson Distribution Help

Poisson distribution works with any sport with independent events which occur a particular number of times within a specific period. In that case, it is suitable for placing sports and basketball bets. However, it is widely used by many expert bettors to predict future results of football events.

What Is the Use of Calculating Outcome Probabilities for Your Bets

The main importance of calculating outcome probabilities is predicting future events' outcomes. That, in turn, allows you to make informed decisions when placing bets. In using Poisson Distribution to calculate a particular match's outcome probability, you also discover valuable information that can help you predict away team and home team results using goals scored in previous events.

Important Basics of The Poisson Distribution - Representation of Expected Probabilities in Odds

The intention of betting systems is to increase your chances of making winning bets. For instance, Poisson distribution can help you figure out the scoreline of a football match using the number of goals made in previous events. But then, these betting systems are not always correct, so you need to learn the following basics of the Poisson Distribution for a better outcome.

Appropriate Betting Markets to Calculate the Poisson Distribution

Most betting systems only apply to a handful of markets, but that is not the case with Poisson Distribution. The betting system allows you to predict various betting markets, including those described below:

Over/Under Markets

Over/Under is a common market in football betting that allows you to predict a particular variable rather than the correct score. In most cases, Over/Under or O/U allows you to determine whether the total score of both teams will be over/under a certain number.

You can easily determine team scoring with the calculations made using Poisson Distribution. This will, in turn, make it easy to predict O/U markets.

Exact Result

The exact Result or Correct Score is another betting prediction you can make thanks to the Poisson Distribution betting system. With statistics on the average number of goals and league average scores for each team, you can use Poisson Distribution to determine the teams' number of goals likely to be scored. This information can help you place the Exact Score bet.

1X2 bets

Home Win, Draw, or Away Win, as 1X2 implies, is yet another bet you can place courtesy of the Poisson Distribution strategy. After all, the betting system does not give you the average team scores but the correct scores expected from a team. So you need to compare the goals to determine which team will win or whether the match will end in a draw.

Double Chance

Double Chance is a unique wager allowing you to bet on a team's Win or Draw markets. With the expected goals of each team at your fingertips, you can easily place a Double Chance bet and win. That is one of the main reasons the Poisson distribution system is fantastic.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Both Teams to Score or BTTS is yet another market determined by the number of expected goals. You can easily predict whether both teams will score during an event. All you need to do is check the score derived using the Poisson distribution system and decide whether BTTS will be TRUE or FALSE.

Limitations of Poisson Distribution in Betting

The Poisson distribution strategy is beneficial. However, you must also note that the betting system has multiple limitations. For instance, Poisson Distribution is based on statistics, meaning the more data you gather, the more accurate the outcome. This can, in turn, be challenging, especially when it comes to insignificant matches. Also, you should know that the teams do not maintain players more often due to off-season transfers. This can affect the Poisson Distribution calculation over time.

Conclusion - Finding More Value Bets with The Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution is one of the best betting systems that use actual data to predict upcoming events. However, before considering the betting system, you should be ready to conduct numerous analyses and research.

The good news is that all that effort will pay off since Poisson distribution results can help you make 1X2, Both Teams to Score, and Double Chance Bets. However, as stated in this reading, you should know that the betting system does not account for specific aspects, making it less reliable. But generally, it is worth considering, especially if you are an expert bettor.

Poisson Distribution Betting FAQ