--- description: Check our latest predictions and sleepers when it comes to the MLB Home Run Leader odds board featuring Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Schwarber. title: 2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds | Who Can Catch Schwarber? image: https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/betting/2025/11/USATSI_27263317_168400032_lowres.jpg --- As the regular season unfolds, the MLB home run leader odds will once again be one of baseball’s most captivating betting markets. Power hitters across the league, such as Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani, are chasing not just personal milestones, but a statistical crown that proves they are the best slugger in the world. > Eight of the last 12 MLB home run leaders have come from the American League... Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh led the [MLB](https://oddspedia.com/ca/baseball/usa/mlb) in regular season home runs with 60 last season. Will it take another herculean effort to dethrone Judge? ##### Related: [“The Map of Champions”: Finding The Winningest Places In The USA](https://oddspedia.com/insights/features/the-map-of-champions) Here’s an updated look at the 2026 MLB home run leader odds. _Want to play against the experts? Make your [MLB picks](https://oddspedia.com/ca/baseball/usa/mlb/picks) alongside us all year long._ ## ⚾ 2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds | Player | Current Odds | Implied Probability | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ------------------- | | ![Philadelphia Phillies](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/638.png) Kyle Schwarber | \-190 | 65.52% | | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/616.png) Yordan Alvarez | +450 | 18.18% | | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/613.png) Matt Olson | +550 | 15.38% | | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/647.png) Pete Crow-Armstrong | +600 | 14.29% | | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/662.png) Junior Caminero | +800 | 11.11% | | ![Colorado Rockies](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/639.png) Hunter Goodman | +1600 | 5.88% | | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/660.png) Ben Rice | +4000 | 2.44% | | ![Baltimore Orioles](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/622.png) Pete Alonso | +15000 | 0.66% | | ![Los Angeles Dodgers](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/617.png) Shohei Ohtani | +20000 | 0.50% | _Home run leader odds courtesy of [bet365](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/bet365/) – accurate as of September 1_ * [![bet365](/placeholder.svg)](/bookmakers/bet365/bonus "bet365 Bonus") 4.9 Bis zu 100€ in Wett-Credits ODDSPEDIA Claim bonus 18+ | Erlaubt (Whitelist) | Suchtrisiken | Hilfe unter http://buwei.de Nur für neue Kunden. Melden Sie sich an, zahlen Sie €5 oder mehr auf Ihr bet365-Konto ein und wir geben Ihnen die entsprechende qualifizierende Einzahlung in Wett-Credits, wenn Sie qualifizierende Wetten im gleichen Wert platzieren und diese abgerechnet werden. Mindestquoten, Wett- und Zahlungsmethoden-Ausnahmen gelten. Gewinne schließen den Einsatz von Wett-Credits aus. Es gelten die AGB, Zeitlimits und Ausnahmen. Der Bonus-Code ODDSPEDIA kann während der Anmeldung benutzt werden, jedoch ändert dies den Angebotsbetrag in keinster Weise. Looking to bet on the MLB Home Run Leader Odds? Check out Oddspedia’s [bet calculator](https://oddspedia.com/insights/betting/bet-calculator) and [odds calculator](https://oddspedia.com/insights/betting/odds-calculator)! ## ⚾ MLB home run odds leaders ### ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/638.png) Kyle Schwarber | -190 odds to lead MLB in HRs Schwarber surpassed Munetaka Murakami, a favorite in the [NL Rookie of the Year odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/mlb-rookie-of-the-year-odds), in late May and enjoyed several months as the betting favorite in the MLB home run odds market. The Phillies slugger was passed by Yordan Alvarez in early August, but has since reclaimed the favorite position after a resurgence that has included four home runs in his last 10 games. Schwarber now has a league-leading 40 home runs and 82 RBI. The 33-year-old slugger has twice led the NL in home runs, including a career-best 56 last season. He’ll be tough for other contenders in the MLB most home runs market to catch if he stays healthy. ### ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/616.png) Yordan Alvarez | +450 odds to lead MLB in HRs The current betting favorite in the [Comeback Player of the Year odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/mlb-comeback-player-of-the-year-odds), Alvarez is surging up the MLB home run odds leaderboard. The Houston Astros slugger has been a consistent force all season and is even a strong contender in the [AL MVP odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/mlb-mvp-odds), with an outside shot at becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera in 2012\. He has 37 home runs, but has only hit one since August 15. Alvarez isn’t a flash in the pan. He has hit more than 30 home runs four seasons in a row from 2021-2024 before an injury-plagued season in 2025\. In addition to his power numbers, he leads the AL in RBI (94), on-base percentage (.432), and slugging (.605). ## ⚾ MLB home run odds sleeper pick ### ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/647.png) Pete Crow-Armstrong | +600 odds to lead MLB in HRs Pete Crow-Armstrong is surging up the MLB most home run odds board after an impressive power stretch. The Cubs star has a career-best 38 home runs on the season and has gone deep 12 times since August 16, putting him firmly in the conversation to lead MLB in homers. His recent power surge has also fueled a dramatic rise in the [MLB MVP odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/mlb-mvp-odds), where Crow-Armstrong has overtaken Shohei Ohtani as the favorite in the NL. PCA’s combination of power, speed and elite defense has made him one of baseball’s biggest breakout stars in 2026\. With his home run pace accelerating at the perfect time, Crow-Armstrong could be an intriguing long-shot target to finish atop the MLB home run leaderboard. ## 📖 How to read MLB Home Run Leader odds Reading MLB Home Run Leader odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200\. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet. For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. ## 🤔 Who decides who is the MLB Home Run Leader? The MLB Home Run Leader is the player who finishes the regular season with the most home runs. Contrary to other MLB individual award futures, there is no voting system to determine the winner. ## 💰 How to bet on the MLB Home Run Leader odds Placing a futures bet on the MLB Home Run Leader odds is a five-step process that focuses on finding the best value. #### 1\. Choose a Bookmaker and Compare Odds Start by comparing Home Run Leader odds across multiple legal sportsbooks (e.g., [bet365](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/bet365), [Stake](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/stake-com)). Odds for longshot candidates can vary significantly (+2000 vs. +2500), directly impacting your potential return. Selecting the best price ensures maximum value for your bet. #### 2\. Sign Up and Deposit Funds Complete the online registration with the chosen bookmaker, providing necessary personal details for identity verification. When depositing funds, consider any available **welcome bonuses**, as these offers can effectively reduce the risk on your initial portfolio investment. #### 3\. Locate the Futures Market Once logged in, navigate the bookmaker’s menu to find the market. The path is typically: **MLB → Futures → Regular Season Stat Leaders → Home Run Leader**. #### 4\. Select Your Bets and Enter Stakes Identify your 3-4 preferred longshot players and click on their odds to add them to your **bet slip**. For each selection, enter the same wagering amount (stake) to create your diversified portfolio. It is crucial to place these as individual **straight bets**, not a parlay. #### 5\. Review and Place the Bet Before finalizing, review the bet slip to confirm the players, the locked-in odds, and the total amount risked. Once satisfied, submit the bets to secure your longshot odds for the entire MLB season. * [![Bwin](/placeholder.svg)](/bookmakers/bwin/bonus "Bwin Bonus") 5 100% Bonus bis zu 100€ Offer applies automatically Claim bonus Teilnahme nur für Neukunden. Einzahlungs- und Bonusbetrag 3x in 90 Tagen einsetzen. 18+ AGBs gelten. ## 💸 Key Betting Strategies for MLB Home Run Leader Odds The following three strategies focus on maximizing value, managing risk and exploiting market inefficiencies across the MLB Season. #### 1\. The Preseason Portfolio (Maximizing Odds) The core of this strategy is maximizing initial value by placing multiple, small, diversified bets immediately **after the odds are released**. Your focus should be on **3 to 4 longshot players** who are in situations offering **high-volume opportunities** (e.g., a lock as a 3 or 4 hitter heading into Spring Training). By selecting odds of +2000 or higher, you are constructing a portfolio that diversifies risk. If any one of your selections breaks out, the return on the small, pooled stake is massive. * **Example**: Placing $10 on four different players —Player A (+2500), B (+4000), C (+2000), and D (+3000) results in a total risk of $40. #### 2\. Dynamic In-Season Monitoring and Adjustment (Identifying Breakouts) The second stage involves rigorous monitoring of your longshots during the first half of the season (April-June) to identify an odds-shortening breakout. You are tracking a sustained run of excellent production (e.g., a **slugger** hitting 30+ home runs in the first half of the season). This breakout performance will dramatically shift the market and prepare you for the third strategic step. **Volume and consistency** are the only metrics that matter here, as they validate the initial preseason bet. * **Example**: Your $10 bet on Player B at +4000 sees their odds plummet to +300 after a dominant stretch where they are top three in home runs, confirming their status as an award contender. #### 3\. The Calculated Mid-Season Hedge (Guaranteeing Profit) This final, crucial strategy is pure **risk management** designed to lock in a guaranteed net profit. If your initial longshot has become a top favorite, you identify their closest rival and calculate the precise stake needed to place a bet on that rival. This is the **“hedge bet.”** The goal is to ensure that regardless of which of the two top candidates ultimately wins the award, you walk away with a guaranteed, significant return on your small initial investment, effectively taking risk off the table late in the season. * **Example**: With Player B at +300, and their rival, Player E, at +500, you calculate an $80 stake on Player E. This maneuver guarantees a net profit of at least $320 (if B wins) or $390 (if E wins), securing a massive return on your initial $40 risk. ## 📈 MLB Home Run Leader Betting Trends When wagering on the MLB Home Run Leader odds or any other MLB individual award futures, it is always wise to research betting trends that have been established over the years. Here is a look at some key trends to consider before placing this season’s bets. * Eight of the last 12 MLB home run leaders have come from the American League. * No hitter has defended his title as MLB home run king since 2011\. The last repeat home run champion was Toronto’s Jose Bautista back in 2010 and 2011. * The HR champ has belted at least 40 bombs in each of the last 42 full seasons (and 46 of the last 47). * Not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, six of the last eight home run champs finished with more than 50 bombs (and all eight had at least 48 home runs). * Of the last 25 players to finish first (or tied for first) in home runs, 22 played first base, third base, corner outfield, or were designated hitters ## Our best MLB betting sites To make sure you get the most value on your [MLB odds](https://oddspedia.com/ca/baseball/usa/mlb/odds), go to the best [MLB betting sites](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks) prior to placing your wagers throughout the regular season. | Sportsbook bonus | Sportsbook promo code | Sportsbook review | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- | | [Stake Promo Code](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/stake-com/bonus) | ODDSMAX | [Stake Review](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/stake-com) | | [bet365 Bonus Code](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/bet365/bonus) | ODDSPEDIA | [bet365 Review](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/bet365) | | [Betway Promo Code](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/betway/bonus) | N/A | [Betway Review](https://oddspedia.com/ca/sportsbooks/betway) | ## Looking for MLB insights? If you’re looking for expert insight on the MLB, take a look at some of our other articles: * [World Series Odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/world-series-odds) * [MLB Prop Bets](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/mlb-prop-bets) * [MLB Manager of the Year Odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/manager-of-the-year-odds) * [MLB Reliever of the Year Odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/mlb-reliever-of-the-year-odds) ## 🏆 Previous MLB Home Run Leaders | Year | HR Leader | | ---- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 2025 | ![Seattle Mariners](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/652.png) Cal Raleigh | | 2024 | ![New York Yankees](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/660.png) Aaron Judge | | 2023 | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/613.png) Matt Olson | | 2022 | ![New York Yankees](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/660.png) Aaron Judge | | 2021 | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/615.png) Salvador Perez ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/661.png) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | | 2020 | ![New York Yankees](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/660.png) Luke Voit | | 2019 | ![New York Mets](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/634.png) Pete Alonso | | 2018 | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/636.png) Khris Davis | | 2017 | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/666.png) Giancarlo Stanton | | 2016 | ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/7/622.png) Mark Trumbo | ## ❓ MLB Home Run Leader Odds FAQs ### Who was home run leader in 2025? The 2025 MLB home run leader was Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. He hit 60 homers in 159 games, leading baseball in the category for the first time in his career. ### When will the 2026 MLB home run leader be decided? The 2026 MLB home run leader won’t be decided until the end of the regular season. After every team plays 162 games, the player with the most home runs will be crowned the home run leader. In recent seasons, the home run race has been quite close in the final few weeks of the year. ### How is the MLB home run leader decided? After the regular season concludes, the player with the most home runs is crowned the MLB home run leader. Contrary to other MLB individual award futures, there is no voting system to determine the winner. Related Tags: * [#MLB ](/insights/tags/mlb) Don't forget to share with friends * [![Facebook Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://www.facebook.com/oddspediaglobal) * [![X Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://x.com/oddspedia) * [![Instagram Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://www.instagram.com/oddspediaglobal) * [![Telegram Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://t.me/oddspedia) ![Chris Roberts](/placeholder.svg) Chris Roberts ![Chris Roberts](/placeholder.svg) Sports Betting Expert Chris is an experienced content writer and editor who has worked in multiple industries, including sports betting. A lifelong sports fan, he has been interested in data and odds, player props, and the world of sports gambling since his uncle had him assisting with parlays through ALC’s Proline. Prior to pursuing a work-from-home role as a freelancer, Chris was a newspaper editor who managed community newsrooms in Central Alberta. He also spent two years as sports editor at the Lloydminster Source, covering Junior A hockey, baseball, football, and other sports on both sides of the Alberta and Saskatchewan border. When he isn’t trying to find an edge in his favourite sports betting markets, he can be found on the golf course or in front of the TV cheering on his beloved Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Raptors, and Toronto Blue Jays. [Learn more about me ](/experts/chris-roberts "Chris Roberts") ### Related Articles [![Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds: Mets Now Favored to Land 2-Time Cy Young Winner](/placeholder.svg) ](/insights/baseball/tarik-skubal-next-team-odds) [Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds: Mets Now Favored to Land 2-Time Cy Young Winner ](/insights/baseball/tarik-skubal-next-team-odds) Explore Tarik Skubal next team odds and predictions as the Dodgers and Mets lead the race for MLB's top free agent. 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You can manage your preferences and find out more by clicking the ‘Customise’ button below. Customise Accept All ) ( ( ( ( ( ( ( /( )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) ( )\()) (()/( (()/( (()/( (()/( ( (()/( (()/( )\ ((_)\ /(_)) /(_)) /(_)) /(_)) )\ /(_)) /(_)) ((((_)( ((_) (_))_ (_))_ (_)) (_)) ((_) (_))_ (_)) )\ _ )\ / _ \ | \ | \ / __| | _ \ | __| | \ |_ _| (_)_\(_) | (_) | | |) | | |) | \__ \ | _/ | _| | |) | | | / _ \ \___/ |___/ |___/ |___/ |_| |___| |___/ |___| /_/ \_\ ```json {"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights","name":"Insights"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball","name":"Baseball"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/home-run-leader-odds","name":"2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Schwarber Once Again the Favorite"}}]} {"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","url":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/home-run-leader-odds","dateCreated":"2026-09-01T16:28:27+00:00","datePublished":"2026-09-01T16:28:27+00:00","dateModified":"2026-09-01T16:36:28+00:00","articleSection":"Baseball","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","name":"2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Schwarber Once Again the Favorite","@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/baseball/home-run-leader-odds"},"headline":"2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Schwarber Once Again the Favorite","description":"Check our latest predictions and sleepers when it comes to the MLB Home Run Leader odds board featuring Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Schwarber.","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/betting/2025/11/USATSI_27263317_168400032_lowres.jpg","width":1000,"height":565}],"author":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Person","name":"Chris Roberts","gender":"Male","url":"https://oddspedia.com/experts/chris-roberts","jobTitle":"Sports Betting Expert","image":"https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/betting/2026/04/2845-e1776347121960.png","affiliation":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Oddspedia"},"description":"<p>Chris is an experienced content writer and editor who has worked in multiple industries, including sports betting. A lifelong sports fan, he has been interested in data and odds, player props, and the world of sports gambling since his uncle had him assisting with parlays through ALC&#8217;s Proline.</p>\n<p>Prior to pursuing a work-from-home role as a freelancer, Chris was a newspaper editor who managed community newsrooms in Central Alberta. He also spent two years as sports editor at the Lloydminster Source, covering Junior A hockey, baseball, football, and other sports on both sides of the Alberta and Saskatchewan border.</p>\n<p>When he isn&#8217;t trying to find an edge in his favourite sports betting markets, he can be found on the golf course or in front of the TV cheering on his beloved Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Raptors, and Toronto Blue Jays.</p>\n","memberOf":[{"@type":"Organization","name":"Oddspedia","brand":"Oddspedia","sameAs":["https://x.com/oddspedia","https://www.linkedin.com/company/oddspedia","https://www.facebook.com/oddspediaglobal","https://www.instagram.com/oddspediaglobal","https://www.youtube.com/oddspedia/videos","https://t.me/oddspedia","https://discord.gg/Thp44bSCxN"]}],"sameAs":[]},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Oddspedia","sameAs":["https://oddspedia.com","https://www.facebook.com/oddspediaglobal","https://www.instagram.com/oddspediaglobal","https://x.com/oddspedia","https://www.youtube.com/oddspedia/videos"],"logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/static/brand-logos/logo-light.svg","width":164,"height":18}},"inLanguage":"en"} ```