---
description: See the latest Ashes first Test odds, along with free expert predictions and analysis ahead of the first Test on Friday.
title: The Ashes First Test Odds: Analysis, Insights and Predictions
image: https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/betting/2025/11/sipa_62965341.jpg
---

The wait is finally over. The Ashes first Test odds are out, and cricket’s biggest rivalry gets underway with a blockbuster match between England and Australia at Optus Stadium in Perth on Friday. As always, the first Test carries huge significance as it sets the tone for the series, and bettors can assess form, momentum and conditions.

At Oddspedia we are covering all bases when it come to [The Ashes odds](https://oddspedia.com/insights/cricket/the-ashes-odds), including series odds and individual Test odds, so how are The Ashes first Test odds shaping up? Let’s take a look…

## The Ashes first Test winner odds

We’ve scoured the [best cricket betting sites](https://oddspedia.com/bookmakers/cricket) to find you the best odds available for The Ashes first Test winner odds market:

| Result                                                                 | Best Odds    | Implied Probability |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ------------------- |
| ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/14/32257.png) Australia | 3/4 (1.75)   | 57.1%               |
| ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/14/32252.png) England   | 6/4 (2.50)   | 40.0%               |
| 🤝 Draw                                                                | 14/1 (15.00) | 6.7%                |

### ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/14/32257.png) Australia odds to win the first Ashes Test

| Best Odds  | Bookmaker                                             | Implied Probability |
| ---------- | ----------------------------------------------------- | ------------------- |
| 3/4 (1.75) | [888sport](https://oddspedia.com/bookmakers/888sport) | 57.1%               |

Australia come into The Ashes off the back of winning their last four Test series, and sit top of the World Test Championship table. They are the favourites here with Ashes first Test odds of 3/4, thanks to a combination of home conditions and historical dominance in Perth.

Optus Stadium is well known for its pace and bounce, which suits Australia’s fast bowling attack, and the Aussies have won four of their five Tests there, with the sole loss coming against India in 2024\. They also have an outstanding record when England visit Perth, winning 11 times and drawing 3 out of 15 Tests.

Australia have great strength in depth with Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon more than capable of troubling England’s batting line up on their own. Additionally, with the likes of Steve Smith, Travis Head, and Usman Khawaja in their batting ranks, the Aussies are always going to be tough to beat.

That said, the injuries to some of Australia’s key men could be the opening England need to start a tough series on the right foot.

It’s clear why the bookmakers have installed Australia as favourites, but they will be without two of their ‘big three’ seamers in Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood for the first Test, with uncapped Brendan Doggett coming in as Hazlewood’s replacement in the XI.

### ![](https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/teams/big/14/32252.png) England odds to win the first Ashes Test

| Best Odds  | Bookmaker                                               | Implied Probability |
| ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------- |
| 6/4 (2.50) | [Ladbrokes](https://oddspedia.com/bookmakers/betvictor) | 40.0%               |

England arrive in good form having won four and drawn one of their previous five Test series. They are the underdogs with Ashes first Test odds of 6/4, but considering Australia’s dominance in recent years bookmakers clearly feel that England’s “Bazball” approach, coupled with Australia’s injuries, gives them a real chance of flipping the history books here.

If they are to come away victorious, Jofra Archer and Gus Atkinson will need to adapt quickly to the Australian conditions and put pressure on the Australian batters in the first innings – historically a key factor in determining Ashes results.

At the other end, England’s batting order remains unpredictable due to their attacking nature, but with the likes of Joe Root, Harry Brook and Ben Duckett leading the charge they are capable of explosive scoring outputs.

However, we have also seen devastating batting collapses in the past, so they may have to tinker with their style to find the perfect balance.

If England’s fearless style can unsettle Australia, they could provide bettors with real value at their current odds of 6/4.

### Draw odds in the first Ashes Test

| Best Odds    | Bookmaker                                                     | Implied Probability |
| ------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------- |
| 14/1 (15.00) | [William Hill](https://oddspedia.com/bookmakers/william-hill) | 6.7%                |

The Ashes first Test odds for a draw sit at a longshot price of 14/1, mainly due to Perth’s reputation for producing results. The pitch generally quickens as the match goes on, which aids the bowlers and makes long fourth innings survival difficult, highlighted by the average fourth innings score of 183.

Another factor to consider is the weather conditions – disruptions are rare compared with other Australian cricket grounds, reducing the likelihood of a draw even further.

A draw only becomes a possibility if both teams post large first innings scores or the pitch becomes flat, and therefore should only be backed as a low-stake speculative wager.

## The Ashes first Test predictions: Is there value on offer?

I may be biased, but I do genuinely believe that England have a great chance of winning here. Admittedly history isn’t on their side, but the key injuries to Cummins and Hazlewood give them the slight edge, and in my opinion their odds of 6/4 provide good value.

## The Ashes first Test odds: Secondary markets

### Top home bowler: Nathan Lyon (10/3 with Skybet)

At Optus Stadium, Nathan Lyon is the top wicket-taker with 27 wickets at an average of 18.00\. This includes two five-wicket hauls, and it is statistically the venue where he has performed the best in Australia. Although the pitch favours pace and bounce, cracks can appear as the match goes on, and I think 10/3 represents good value in The Ashes first Test odds.

### Team to score 400+ in an innings

The average first-innings score for the team batting first at Optus Stadium is 456\. Obviously, we won’t know who’s batting first until the first day of the Test, but both of these teams are more than capable of posting big scores. I’ll be keeping an eye on the toss on day one and having a wager on the team batting first to score over 400.

### Top England run scorer in 1st innings: Harry Brook (7/2 with Paddy Power)

Key to England’s chances is new vice-captain Harry Brook. He is second only to Joe Root in the Test batting rankings, and on his day is capable of racking up big scores quickly. I think this Ashes first Test odds market provides great value for bettors.

## The Ashes first Test odds FAQs

### Who is favourite in The Ashes first Test odds?

Australia are currently the 3/4 favourites, thanks in no small part to their historical dominance on home soil against England. They have only lost once in Perth to England, and the conditions favour their strong pace attack. England are the underdogs with Ashes first Test odds of 6/4, but their fearless, attacking approach means they will fancy their chances of causing an upset.

### Is a draw likely in The Ashes first Test?

In short, no, and The Ashes first Test odds of 14/1 for a draw reflect the unlikelihood of the first Test ending in a stalemate. Historically, draws in Test matches played in Australia are rare, and in particular Ashes Tests played in Perth have been drawn just once. A draw should only be backed as a low stake speculative bet.

### What can you bet on in The Ashes?

There are plenty of interesting markets to bet on during The Ashes, covering both the series as a whole or individual Test matches. For each Test you can back a range of player markets, for example Top Batsman or Player of the Match, or when the first wicket will fall. When a Test is in-play, you can bet on players to score over/under a certain amount of runs, take over/under a certain amount of wickets, or even the result of each ball.

### Where is the first Ashes Test?

The first Ashes Test is being held at Optus Stadium in Perth. Optus Stadium is a 60,000 seat, multi-purpose stadium that was built in 2018, costing $1.6b. The roof covers 85% of the stadium and incorporates LED lighting to display the home team’s colours.

### Will the winner of the first Test win The Ashes?

Winning the first Test of The Ashes is clearly a significant advantage for going on to win the series, but that doesn’t mean it’s a guarantee. There have been plenty of notable comebacks in the past, including the 2005 Ashes where England won 2-1 after losing the first Test. Historically, the team who has won the first Ashes Test has gone on to win the series about half of the time, but it has only happened four times in the post-war era.

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Stuart initially planned a career in the corporate world, but while studying Accounting and Finance at university, he quickly realised he could use his understanding of numbers and powers with Microsoft Excel to make money from betting.

What started as a side project of claiming all the sports betting bonuses he could developed into a lucrative career where Stuart earned his living from betting on sports. He then started sharing his expertise with others, joining syndicates to help develop models and get an edge over the bookmaker.

Stuart started working for Oddspedia so he could share some of this knowledge with the community. He now uses his extensive experience of betting across different sites and maximising the value of bonuses and promotions to help other bettors looking to do the same.

[Learn more about me ](/experts/stuart-brown "Stuart Brown")

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