--- description: The Oscar odds have shifted! Michael B. Jordan is the new 2/3 favourite after a huge 12/1 surge, while early leader Timothée Chalamet drifts to 5/3. title: 2026 Oscar Odds: Jordan Overtakes Chalamet and DiCaprio image: https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/betting/2026/02/2025-11-17T031722Z_786185231_RC22YHAIPZ87_RTRMADP_3_AWARDS-GOVERNORS.jpg --- As the 98th Academy Awards approach, the glamour of Hollywood is once again meeting the precision of the betting markets. With the ceremony set for **Sunday, 15 March 2026**, the **2026 Oscars odds** are already shifting as the awards season narrative takes shape. > "Final voting is underway! Secure the best 2026 Oscar odds on dominant favourites and surging spoilers..." This year’s race is a straight-up battle between huge hits and new favourites. Whether you’re backing a “sure thing” like One Battle After Another or hunting for a valuable underdog bet, this guide breaks down the current Oscars odds. To get the best returns, we recommend comparing prices across [top bookmakers](https://oddspedia.com/bookmakers) like bet365, William Hill, and Paddy Power to secure the best value bets. ## 📅 Key Dates for the 98th Academy Awards The 2026 Oscar race has entered its final stretch. Keep these dates in mind as the markets often fluctuate wildly following the recent nomination announcement: * **12–16th January 2026**: Official Nominations Voting ✔️ * **22nd January 2026**: Oscars Nominations Announcement ✔️ * **26th February 2026**: Final Voting Begins ✔️ * **15th March 2026**: The 98th Oscars Ceremony (Hosted by Conan O’Brien) ## 🏆 2026 Oscars Odds: Main Category Overview The table below highlights the current frontrunners, along with their [Oscars odds](https://oddspedia.com/awards/world-awards/oscars) from leading bookmakers. | Category | Favourite | Current Odds | Implied Probability | | ----------------------- | ------------------------ | ------------ | ------------------- | | Best Picture | One Battle After Another | 1/4 | 80.0% | | Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson | 1/19 | 95.0% | | Best Actor | Michael B. Jordan | 2/3 | 60.0% | | Best Actress | Jessie Buckley | 0/1 | 100% | | Best Supporting Actor | Sean Penn | 3/4 | 80.0% | | Best Supporting Actress | Amy Madigan | 1/1 | 50.0% | ## 🎯 Finding Value in the Odds When assessing the 2026 Oscars odds, the smartest approach is often to look beyond the “chalk” (the heavy favourite) and focus on films with a compelling awards-season narrative. ### The Best Picture Duel While One Battle After Another may be the technical showpiece of the year, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners at 11/4 looks like outstanding value. The Academy has long favoured films that marry critical acclaim with box-office success, and if Sinners performs strongly at the SAG Awards in February, those odds are likely to shorten sharply. ### Chasing the Best Director Frontrunner Paul Thomas Anderson is the betting favourite at 1/19, largely because he’s widely regarded as one of the greatest living directors yet to win an Oscar. However, for those looking for a value pick, Ryan Coogler (Sinners) at 10/1 ~~(14/1)~~ or Chloe Zhao priced at 33/1 ~~(16/1)~~ is a compelling option. ### Best Actor: A Two-Horse Race ![](/placeholder.svg) © REUTERS / Mario Anzuoni The Best Actor race has been completely upended just days before the ceremony. Michael B. Jordan has staged a late-season surge, skyrocketing from a 12/1 longshot to the new 2/3 favourite. This shift has pushed the previous frontrunners back significantly. Timothée Chalamet has drifted from 1/5 to 5/3, while Leonardo DiCaprio has fallen from 6/1 to 14/1\. While DiCaprio still benefits from being in the Best Picture favourite, the momentum has shifted drastically toward Jordan’s powerhouse performance in Sinners. ## 🏆 2026 Oscars Odds: The “Big Four” Categories The tables below outline the top five favourites across the four major categories. These 2026 Oscars odds are a composite of early January prices and the latest market moves from leading UK bookmakers. ### Best Picture Odds Oscars 2026 Check out [Oscars Best Picture odds](https://oddspedia.com/awards/world-awards/oscars/best-picture) of the five top favourite movies. One Battle After Another remains the heavy favourite, but the “popular” momentum of Sinners is starting to close the gap. | Film | Current Odds | Implied Probability | | ------------------------ | ------------ | ------------------- | | One Battle After Another | 1/4 | 80.0% | | Sinners | 11/4 | 26.7% | | Hamnet | 20/1 | 4.8% | | Marty Supreme | 50/1 | 2.0% | | Sentimental Value | 100/1 | 1.0% | ### Best Picture Live Odds [](https://oddspedia.com) ### Best Director Paul Thomas Anderson is widely considered to be overdue a win, making him a very short-priced favourite. | Director | Film | Current Odds | Implied Probability | | -------------------- | ------------------------ | ------------ | ------------------- | | Paul Thomas Anderson | One Battle After Another | 1/19 | 95% | | Ryan Coogler | Sinners | 14/1 | 6.7% | | Chloé Zhao | Hamnet | 16/1 | 5.9% | | Josh Safdie | Marty Surpreme | 40/1 | 2.4% | | Joachim Trier | Sentimental Value | 50/1 | 2% | ### Best Actor ![](/placeholder.svg) Photo By Sthanlee B. Mirador / Sipa USA This is the tightest race of the night, but the market has shifted dramatically. While Timothée Chalamet held the early lead, Michael B. Jordan has surged from a 12/1 longshot to the new 2/3 favourite following his massive SAG win. Chalamet has drifted to 5/3, and despite Leonardo DiCaprio leading the Best Picture frontrunner, his odds have tumbled to 14/1\. Check out the latest [Best Actor market](https://oddspedia.com/awards/world-awards/oscars/best-actor) movers and find where the value lies. | Actor | Film | Current Odds | Implied Probability | | ----------------- | ------------------------ | ------------ | ------------------- | | Michael B. Jordan | Sinners | 2/3 | 60.0% | | Timothée Chalamet | Marty Supreme | 5/3 | 37.5% | | Leonardo DiCaprio | One Battle After Another | 14/1 | 6.7% | | Wagner Moura | The Secret Agent | 25/1 | 3.8% | | Ethan Hawke | Blue Moon | 25/1 | 3.8% | ### Oscars Live Odds Best Actor [](https://oddspedia.com) ### Best Actress Jessie Buckley is currently the most likely winner on the board, holding the shortest Oscars odds across all acting categories. | Actress | Film | Current Odds | Implied Probability | | -------------- | -------------------------- | ------------ | ------------------- | | Jessie Buckley | Hamnet | 0/1 | 100% | | Rose Byrne | If I Had Legs I’d Kick You | 18/1 | 5.3% | | Emma Stone | Bugonia | 25/1 | 3.8% | | Renate Reinsve | Sentimental Value | 33/1 | 2.9% | | Kate Hudson | Song Sung Blue | 33/1 | 2.9% | ### Oscars Live Odds: Best Actress [](https://oddspedia.com) ## 💎 Our Top Value Longshots for 2026 The nominations are in, and the smart money is moving. Here are the contenders currently offering the best ROI as the 98th Oscar race heats up. | **Contender** | **Category** | **Current Odds** | **Implied Prob.** | **Why It’s a Smart Play?** | | ------------------------------- | ------------- | ---------------- | ----------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | Best Actor | 25/1 | 3.8% | A Golden Globe winner who just made history as the first Brazilian man nominated in this category. Momentum is huge. ✔️ | | Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) | Best Director | 33/1 | 2.9% | The only woman nominated in the category this year. As a previous winner, she has the “Academy favourite” status to pull an upset. ✔️ | | Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | Best Actress | 33/1 | 2.9% | A classic comeback story. Her musical performance as a real-life underdog is a proven formula for late-season surges. ✔️ | * [![bet365](/placeholder.svg)](/bookmakers/bet365/bonus "bet365 Bonus") 4.9 Bis zu 100€ in Wett-Credits ODDSPEDIA Claim bonus 18+ | Erlaubt (Whitelist) | Suchtrisiken | Hilfe unter http://buwei.de Nur für neue Kunden. Melden Sie sich an, zahlen Sie €5 oder mehr auf Ihr bet365-Konto ein und wir geben Ihnen die entsprechende qualifizierende Einzahlung in Wett-Credits, wenn Sie qualifizierende Wetten im gleichen Wert platzieren und diese abgerechnet werden. Mindestquoten, Wett- und Zahlungsmethoden-Ausnahmen gelten. Gewinne schließen den Einsatz von Wett-Credits aus. Es gelten die AGB, Zeitlimits und Ausnahmen. Der Bonus-Code ODDSPEDIA kann während der Anmeldung benutzt werden, jedoch ändert dies den Angebotsbetrag in keinster Weise. ## How to Bet on the Oscars 2026 Betting on the Academy Awards is slightly different from sports betting. Here is what you need to know. ### Is it legal? Yes, in the UK, betting on entertainment “specials” is fully legal and regulated by the UK Gambling Commission. ### Where to bet? Most major UK sportsbooks like [William Hill](https://oddspedia.com/bookmakers/william-hill), Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, and bet365 have dedicated “[Novelty](https://oddspedia.com/novelty)” or “TV & Specials” sections where Oscars markets are listed. ### Betting Types Most wagers are “Outright Winner” bets. You can also place “Accumulators” (Accas) where you combine multiple categories (e.g., Best Picture odds, Best Director odds, [Best Actress odds](https://oddspedia.com/awards/world-awards/oscars/best-actress)) for a much higher payout. ## 2026 Oscars Odds FAQs ### When are the 2026 Oscars? The ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, 15th March 2026\. It will take place at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood. ### Who is the current favourite to win Best Picture? One Battle After Another is the heavy favourite. Following a sweep at the Critics’ Choice Awards, it currently sits at 1/4 (80.0% probability) with most UK bookmakers. ### Is Paul Thomas Anderson a lock for Best Director? He is the top favourite priced at 1/19\. The narrative that he is “overdue” (having never won despite numerous nominations) is his strongest asset. However, keep an eye on Chloe Zhao (Hamnet), whose status as a previous winner and her film’s high critical marks make her the most likely spoiler if voters decide to split the Best Picture and Best Director prices. ### Is Timothée Chalamet going to win the Best Actor Oscar? Timothée Chalamet, once the 1/5 lock, has seen his lead vanish as Michael B. Jordan staged a stunning late-season surge from 12/1 to the new 2/3 favourite. With Chalamet drifting to 5/3, the Oscars 2026 Best Actor race has transformed from a coronation into a two-man battle. ### Who is the favourite for Best Actress? Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is the strongest favourite of the night. Most bookmakers consider her almost unbeatable at this stage. Related Tags: * [#Film & TV ](/insights/tags/film-tv) * [#Novelty Bets ](/insights/tags/novelty-bets) * [#Special Bets ](/insights/tags/special-bets) Don't forget to share with friends * [![Facebook Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://www.facebook.com/oddspediaglobal) * [![X Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://x.com/oddspedia) * [![Instagram Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://www.instagram.com/oddspediaglobal) * [![Telegram Icon](/placeholder.svg)](https://t.me/oddspedia) ![Jan Veit](/placeholder.svg) Jan Veit ![Jan Veit](/placeholder.svg) Sports Betting Expert * [![](/placeholder.svg)](https://www.linkedin.com/in/jan-veit-0a06a134/) Jan is a sports fanatic who successfully turned his hobby into a profession. With over 17+ years in the iGaming industry, his journey began with a deep curiosity for betting markets and has evolved into a career defined by strategic leadership. 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You can manage your preferences and find out more by clicking the ‘Customise’ button below. Customise Accept All ) ( ( ( ( ( ( ( /( )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) )\ ) ( )\()) (()/( (()/( (()/( (()/( ( (()/( (()/( )\ ((_)\ /(_)) /(_)) /(_)) /(_)) )\ /(_)) /(_)) ((((_)( ((_) (_))_ (_))_ (_)) (_)) ((_) (_))_ (_)) )\ _ )\ / _ \ | \ | \ / __| | _ \ | __| | \ |_ _| (_)_\(_) | (_) | | |) | | |) | \__ \ | _/ | _| | |) | | | / _ \ \___/ |___/ |___/ |___/ |_| |___| |___/ |___| /_/ \_\ ```json {"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights","name":"Insights"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/features","name":"Oddspedia Features"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/features/oscar-odds","name":"2026 Oscars Odds: Michael B. Jordan Dethrones Chalamet as Favourite"}}]} {"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","url":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/features/oscar-odds","dateCreated":"2026-03-13T14:11:41+00:00","datePublished":"2026-03-13T14:11:41+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-15T13:43:19+00:00","articleSection":"Oddspedia Features","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","name":"2026 Oscars Odds: Michael B. Jordan Dethrones Chalamet as Favourite","@id":"https://oddspedia.com/insights/features/oscar-odds"},"headline":"2026 Oscars Odds: Michael B. Jordan Dethrones Chalamet as Favourite","description":"The Oscar odds have shifted! Michael B. Jordan is the new 2/3 favourite after a huge 12/1 surge, while early leader Timothée Chalamet drifts to 5/3.","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/betting/2026/02/2025-11-17T031722Z_786185231_RC22YHAIPZ87_RTRMADP_3_AWARDS-GOVERNORS.jpg","width":1000,"height":565}],"author":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Person","name":"Jan Veit","gender":"Male","url":"https://oddspedia.com/experts/jan-veit","jobTitle":"Sports Betting Expert","image":"https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/betting/2021/12/jan-1.jpg","affiliation":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Oddspedia"},"description":"<p>Jan is a sports fanatic who successfully turned his hobby into a profession. With over 17+ years in the iGaming industry, his journey began with a deep curiosity for betting markets and has evolved into a career defined by strategic leadership. He doesn’t just watch sports for entertainment, he watches to analyse. From his favourite club, Hannover 96, to the tennis court, he’s always looking past the scoreboard to find the reasoning behind betting lines.</p>\n","memberOf":[{"@type":"Organization","name":"Oddspedia","brand":"Oddspedia","sameAs":["https://x.com/oddspedia","https://www.linkedin.com/company/oddspedia","https://www.facebook.com/oddspediaglobal","https://www.instagram.com/oddspediaglobal","https://www.youtube.com/oddspedia/videos","https://t.me/oddspedia","https://discord.gg/Thp44bSCxN"]}],"sameAs":["https://www.linkedin.com/in/jan-veit-0a06a134/"]},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Oddspedia","sameAs":["https://oddspedia.com","https://www.facebook.com/oddspediaglobal","https://www.instagram.com/oddspediaglobal","https://x.com/oddspedia","https://www.youtube.com/oddspedia/videos"],"logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://cdn.oddspedia.com/images/static/brand-logos/logo-light.svg","width":164,"height":18}},"inLanguage":"en"} ```