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Betting on the next Labour leader is choosing who will be appointed as head of the Party. Browse the latest odds for who will stand as the next leader, whether in opposition or at the next General Election. Like other political bets and novelty betting categories, betting on Labour leadership candidates has gained traction and popularity, especially when big elections get underway. Learn all about leadership betting in the guide below.
Political Betting and odds work by representing the probability of an outcome, just like sports betting. If your chosen wager wins, you will receive your stake multiplied by these odds agreed on when betting. The lower the odds, the greater the chance the candidate will be elected as leader and the lower the payout. Given how volatile politics is with plenty of surprises over the last decade, this leaves room for outside candidates with greater odds and a chance to land a significant payout.
You can choose the odds format that suits you best when placing a wager, including fractional, Moneyline or decimal odds. There is no difference in payouts across these, only in how you read and understand them. Odds for leadership candidates will change over time, leaving room for future predictions and later-stage bets. As the leadership contest tightens, so too do the Labour leader betting odds.
Odds for the next Labour Party leader include all candidates or potential candidates for the job, including the incumbent leader and those that have expressed an interest. The leader of the Labour Party usually occupies either a leader of the Opposition position or prime minister of the United Kingdom, depending on who is in power. As such, odds for the Party leader will also include wagers for the two roles. Wagers often only cover the next permanent Labour leader and not interim leaders like deputies that assume the role temporarily following a resignation.
Political betting is not as straightforward as sports betting. While it does cover just one outcome - who you think will be elected - it is not based on performance on the pitch but on a mix of public and political opinion. The leadership of the Labour Party is chosen by its members and not the entire British public. When making your wager, look at savvy political commentary from within the Party itself, its members and current MPs, as well as newspapers generally associated with Labour. Keep abreast of this political climate and read through Oddspedia's recommendations to make a sound decision.
While the most common bet is on the outcome of the election, you can also bet on potential Labour leader candidates before a leadership race begins. Specials may include combining which party will win a general election with the leader who will become Prime Minister, or who will be elected both leader and deputy. More promotions are offered during a contest or upcoming election.
While political betting markets can be diverse, they are very specific. You are not able to choose from scores, averages or performance but an exact data prediction of who will be elected. It is up to the betting site to offer specials and markets that deviate from this, like runner-up categories or percentage of the votes.
A leadership contest is triggered either when the incumbent resigns or dies, or when challenged by another MP. To challenge for leadership, the challenger must have support from 20% of Labour MPs. A leader can resign based on poor electoral performance, a vote of no confidence or other reasons. Leadership changes to maintain the support of its party members, affiliated supporters (trade unions) and the voting public. Simply put, party leaders change so that the party itself remains electable.
To become a party leader, you must win a leadership contest. When in opposition, this usually takes place during the annual party conference. The exact timings are detailed within the Party's rule book. The process of leadership includes a selection of challengers, who need at least 20% of MPs' support plus constituency and affiliate support. Party members and affiliates then vote on who will become the next leader. Voting is decided by an alternative system where if one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, they win. If there is no obvious leadership winner, then the candidate with the least votes has their votes redistributed to the voter's second preference. This process will repeat until a leader is elected.
No. There is no term limit for Labour leadership, although lengthy terms are now uncommon. A previous leader can also be re-elected in the future. Clement Attlee is the longest-serving Labour leader, heading the party for 20 years.
The Labour leader is responsible for managing the party and its relationship with the public in the role of spokesperson. They set out mandates and make manifesto pledges. If they are the leader of the Opposition, they must scrutinise the actions of the current Cabinet and offer alternative policies. If they are Prime Minister, they advise the UK sovereign, chair the Cabinet and select ministers
There is no limit on the number of times someone can serve as party leader, although it is rare for leaders to return. Only Arthur Henderson and Ramsay MacDonald have ever returned to the position.
No, there are three categories of eligibility to vote in a Labour leadership contest. To vote, you must be a party member, affiliated supporter or registered supporter.
Yes, Labour leaders must be sitting MPs before they are elected. There is a chance that a leader loses their seat when in power, but it is yet to happen.