Best Strikeout Props and Predictions Today: Thursday, June 20

John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports
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If you want pitcher bets, strikeout props are the way to go. With lots of action on Thursday, June 20, check out any of our MLB picks using any of the best sportsbooks.

Best strikeout props and predictions today: June 20

Luis Castillo UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 at FanDuel)

I saw the line on this prop, and I nearly jumped for joy at the idea of a plus-money Castillo over. After all, the right-hander has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball. But, beware, the UNDER is chalked for a reason, revealing that this total is more complicated than it may seem.

Castillo is a decent strikeout guy (9.3 K/9), but the Guardians are one of the hardest clubs in baseball to strike out. Cleveland strikes out just 19.3% of the time, the fifth-best mark in baseball, and their total strikeouts (515) are the second-fewest in the majors. That propensity for contact manifests in strikeout totals, almost more than anything else.

Eight of the last 10 starters have gone UNDER their strikeout totals versus the Guardians, including notable arms like Bryan Woo and Jose Berrios, who each struck out just a single hitter. Castillo has seen multiple games UNDER 4.5 Ks, and we must anticipate Cleveland’s pesky bats delivering another UNDER Thursday.

Seth Lugo OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+130 at FanDuel)

Lugo is an interesting cat. The soft-throwing veteran raced out to an excellent start and buoyed Kansas City up the standings. There are a few holes in the ship now, but that hasn’t stopped him from being consistent.

The righty hasn’t hit a strikeout OVER in five straight starts. Bad, right? Well, he’s still been a good pitcher during that span, tossing at least six innings every time out, maintaining a 3.66 ERA, and holding opponents to a .663 OPS. That tells me he’s still firing.

And now Lugo faces the A’s lineup, a batting order that strikes out more than any other club in baseball (26.2%) not named the Mariners. It’s a bit of a risk here, but at +130, we can gladly back an underrated pitcher against a team that’s shown no ability to lay off bad pitches.

Luis Gil UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140 at FanDuel)

The sportsbooks have this one right. Despite Gil’s immense upside and Rookie of the Year buzz, he’s still been unable to shake some of his old habits. For example, Gil is still walking 4.4 batters per nine, which makes his MLB-leading 4.4 H/9 less impactful.

We’re here for strikeouts, though, and Gil has delivered three straight UNDERs. In fact, on the season, the Dominican has seen his strikeouts go UNDER 6.5 in 66% of starts and seven of his last 10. On Thursday, he faces Baltimore, a club Gil punched out just five batters against on May 1. The O’s have been stingy lately, too, striking out 21.6% of the time this year, which is 13th in MLB. Not a fantastic number, but certainly strong enough to continue Gil’s UNDER trend.

Shop around for value on this prop, but I’m confident in the Gil UNDER.

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