The NCAA men’s basketball national championship game is set, which of course means two teams remain on the 2025 March Madness odds board.
Those teams — No. 1 seeds Florida and Houston — will square off Monday in San Antonio in what is the ultimate contrast-in-styles matchup.
The Gators, who knocked off the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed in the Final Four, are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation.
The Cougars, who staged a Final Four comeback for the ages to eliminate the previous national championship favorite, have the nation’s most stifling defense.
Throw in identical records, and it’s no surprise that oddsmakers have the 2025 national championship game as a virtual pick-em.
So which team will be cutting down the nets Monday night? Oddspedia offers its betting prediction below in the final comprehensive March Madness odds breakdown of the 2025 season.
Part of it has to do with a strong belief in two classic sports clichés: “Defensive wins championships” and “Good defense beats good offense.”
March Madness 2025 odds
Team
Opening odds
Current odds
Florida
+900
-120
Houston
+800
+100
March Madness betting odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook– accurate as of April 6
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March Madness odds: Picks and best bets
Houston (+100 at FanDuel)
More often than not, by the time the NCAA Tournament reaches its final crescendo, there’s a definitive favorite on the March Madness odds board.
This year is certainly an exception — and to understand why, all one has to do is review the season-long résumés of both finalists.
Florida is 35-4, followed up an SEC Tournament championship by winning the West Region as a No. 1 seed, and brings an 11-game winning streak into the national title game.
Houston is 35-4, won both the Big 12 regular season and tournament championships, claimed the Midwest Region as a No. 1 seed, and brings an 18-game winning streak into the national title game.
The Gators are No. 2 overall per analytics guru KenPom, ranking second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Cougars sit No. 3 overall in KenPom, ranking first in adjusted defensive efficiency and ninth on the offensive end.
Florida, which averages 85.4 points per game (third-best in the country), had to overcome big second-half deficits in each of its last two NCAA Tournament games. That includes Saturday’s 79-73 Final Four victory over league rival, SEC regular-season champ, and South Region No. 1 seed Auburn.
Houston, which yields an NCAA-low 58.3 points per game, barely escaped two of its last three Big Dance contests. That includes Saturday’s stunning 70-67 Final Four upset of ACC regular season and tournament champion Duke (which had been the March Madness favorite since before the NCAA Tournament tipped off).
So this indeed truly is a pick-em contest. So why side with Houston in the national championship game?
Part of it has to do with a strong belief in two classic sports clichés: “Defensive wins championships” and “Good defense beats good offense”.
Mostly, though, it’s because the Cougars have the team-of-destiny look. Never was that more apparent than in the Final Four, when they were dead and buried against a five-time NCAA champ that appeared well on its way to title No. 6.
Duke had a 14-point lead with slightly more than eight minutes remaining in the game; a nine-point lead with barely two minutes remaining; a seven-point lead with 74 seconds remaining; and a three-point lead with 35 seconds remaining.
Not only did Houston never flinch, it just continued to turn up its suffocating defense — notch by notch — and made one clutch shot after another until finally choking out the heavily favored Blue Devils. LJ Cryer, who’s one of the favorites on the March Madness MVP odds board, put the dagger in the hearts of Duke fans while making two free throws with three seconds left.
Now in the Final Four for the seventh time in school history, the Cougars have yet to win it all. That ends Monday night when they use that defense to smother yet another offensive-minded opponent — one that averaged 91.8 points per game in four NCAA Tournament wins … then ran into Houston.
March Madness favorites: Oddsmakers give Florida slight edge in the championship game
When the 2025 NCAA Tournament tipped off, 68 teams were featured on the March Madness odds board.
Among those squads, Florida was the consensus second choice behind clear-cut favorite Duke. Houston was fourth, trailing Duke, Florida, and Auburn.
Now — with both teams entering Monday’s national championship game following stirring come-from-behind victories in the Final Four — Florida is the slimmest of favorites to cut down the nets in San Antonio.
The Gators are a 1- to 1.5-point chalk and sport consensus moneyline odds of -115. The Cougars are -105 on the moneyline at most betting shops.
Here’s a breakdown of March Madness odds six prominent North American sportsbooks as of midday Sunday, April 6:
BetMGM: Florida -118/Houston -102
BetRivers: Florida -113/Houston -108
bet365: Florida -115/Houston -105
Caesars: Florida -115/Houston -105
DraftKings: Florida -115/Houston -105
FanDuel: Florida -115/Houston -105
Coming into the Big Dance, Florida carried a March Madness price ranging from +350 to +380, while Houston was anywhere from +625 to +700.
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Those who scanned the March Madness odds market prior to the start of the 2025 tournament and keyed in on No. 1 seeds are smiling wide these days.
In fact, it’s a strategy that’s been paying dividends for decades.
Coming into this year’s Big Dance, a No. 1 seed had won it all 25 times in 39 years since 1985 (when March Madness expanded to 64 teams). Now, with a top seed guaranteed to win the 2025 national championship, that number will grow to 26 times in 40 years — or exactly 65%.
This also will be the second straight year that a No. 1 seed will claim the championship, following UConn. The Huskies steamrolled through the 2023-24 NCAA Tournament with six double-digit victories on the way to their second consecutive title.
Not counting the 2019-20 season, when the NCAA Tournament was canceled because of the COVID-19 pandemic, this will be the seventh time in the last eight years that a top seed will win it all.
The only exception during this recent stretch of No. 1-seed dominance: UConn, which won the 2022-23 national title as a No. 4 seed.
Also, regardless of which teams survive to this year’s national championship game, it will be the fifth time in the last 10 tournaments — and second time in a row — that two No. 1 seeds will square off in the finals.
Another thing worth noting: UConn entered last year’s Big Dance as the +350 favorite to cut down the nets. The 2023-24 Huskies were the shortest pre-tournament favorite to win it all since Kentucky was +185 going into the 2011-12 tourney.
Six of the past seven champions had single-digit March Madness odds heading into the tournament. That will improve to seven of the last eight champions, because both of this year’s finalists — Florida and Houston — were priced below 10-to-1 when the 2025 Big Dance tipped off.
The lone exception during this eight-year stretch? Once again, UConn. The Huskies were +1600 (16-to-1) to win it all when the 2023 tourney tipped off.
Feel like heaving up a prayer by backing a March Madness longshot? It continues to be a foolish idea. Since 1989, only two national champions entered the NCAA Tournament with March Madness odds longer than +2000.
The same school won both championships. That school? You guessed it: UConn (+2500 in 2010 and +9500 in 2013).
Which teams are bettors wagering on to win March Madness 2025?
When the 2025 NCAA Tournament tipped off, two No. 1 seeds were drawing the vast majority of the March Madness futures action at BetMGM: Duke and Auburn.
Entering the Final Four, two top seeds continued to lead the way — except Auburn had been replaced by the same SEC rival it met in the Final Four.
Going into the Final Four, Duke was still far and away the most popular March Madness futures bet at BetMGM. As of March 31, the Blue Devils accounted for 14.1% of all tickets and a whopping 40.5% of the wagering handle.
Florida was the second most-bet team at BetMGM. The Gators were attracting 9.1% of all bets and 11.7% of all dollars.
Add it up, and Duke and Florida were responsible for nearly one-quarter of all tickets (combined 23.2%) and more than half of the betting handle (52.2%) at BetMGM.
On the tickets side of the equation, Michigan State — which was eliminated by Auburn in the Elite Eight — was third at 8.7%. Next up was Houston (7.2%), followed by Auburn (6.5%), Tennessee (6.0%) and Alabama (5.8%).
After the Elite Eight, Houston continued to sit behind Duke and Florida in March Madness betting handle at BetMGM. The Cougars had garnered 8.9% of the cash. That was followed by Auburn (5.5%) and Michigan State (5.0%).
As the Final Four approached, no other team accounted had for more than 3.2% of the tickets or 3.5% of the handle in BetMGM’s men’s national championship futures market.
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March Madness betting explained
Apart from March Madness futures, you can also bet on the moneyline, point spreads, totals, prop bets, and parlays once the tournament kicks off.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest wager for a new bettor to try to dip their toes into the world of March Madness lines. Simply put, a moneyline wager involves predicting which team you think will win a particular game.
Point spreads
Spread betting, also known as point spreads, helps to level the playing field by giving a certain number of points to the disadvantaged team and deducting the same number of points from the favored team. For example: Tennessee may be -3.5 favorites against Arizona. They will have to win by four or more points for a wager on them to win.
Totals
Another type of bet, commonly referred to as over/under bets, totals are straightforward to grasp. In a total bet, you predict the combined score of both teams in a game. Essentially, your wager revolves around guessing whether the points scored in a game will exceed or fall below a predetermined total set by the sportsbook.
Prop bets
NCAA prop bets have become a hit with sports bettors, particularly during March Madness, adding an extra thrill to the experience. Also referred to as proposition bets, props entail placing wagers on specific events within a game, often unrelated to the final outcome. In NCAA or NBA basketball, prop bets commonly center around individual player performances, such as predicting the points scored by a specific player, determining which team will score first, estimating the number of fouls per game, and even diving into obscure stats like a specific player to drain the first 3-point shot of the game.
Parlays
Parlays allow you to maximize returns by coupling bets together. Whether it’s two or more teams you believe will win, or a same-game parlay where you couple together prop bets, you can parlay multiple legs together to increase your return on investment.
Best March Madness betting promos
Throughout the tournament, the best sportsbooks and top sports betting apps will offer the best sportsbook promos for you to get your hands on. Whether it’s odds boosts, parlay insurance, or bet and get deals, keep it locked on this page to get the most out of your March Madness experience.
Where can I bet on March Madness?
March Madness futures odds are available to bet in most states where sports betting is legal, as well as Washington, D.C.
There are a few exceptions, though. For instance, Oregon’s sports betting laws prohibit wagering on college sports. Also, several states — including New Jersey, New York, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin — do not allow wagering on in-state schools.
How does March Madness work?
March Madness, also recognized as the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament or simply the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, marks the pinnacle of the annual NCAA basketball season. This exciting tournament is a single-elimination challenge involving the top 68 college basketball teams across the nation. Named after its timing, usually spanning four weeks from March to April, March Madness consists of a total of seven rounds of play before crowning the national champion.
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March Madness tips off a few days after Selection Sunday. The tournament officially kicks off March 18-19 with the First Four.
Who won March Madness in 2024?
UConn won March Madness in 2024, taking down Purdue in convincing fashion. They won by 15 points, 75-60.
Who has the best odds to win March Madness 2024?
Auburn has the best odds to win March Madness 2024, coming in at +330 to be national champions.
Is it legal to bet on March Madness?
Absolutely! If you are in a state or province where sports betting is legal and are of age, you can make any types of bets you find on your sportsbook.
Which sportsbook has the best March Madness odds?
The best March Madness sportsbooks can be found right here on this page. FanDuel, DraftKings, BetRivers, BetMGM, and Caesars are just a few of the most prominent sportsbooks with the best March Madness odds.
Matt first started working in the sports betting space in the mid-2000s in a dual role as a handicapper and writer. In addition to picking games 363 days a year, he wrote daily betting-related previews for all major sports, with those articles appearing (unbylined) on Yahoo's website. From 2009-2015, he wrote a weekly sports betting column for Vegas Seven, a now-defunct Las Vegas-based city magazine. He's since been a writer, editor and project manager for multiple sports betting outlets, including Props.com, Forbes.com and Better Collective/Action Network.
Florida
Houston
