March Madness Sleepers 2025: Three Teams Offering Value Heading Into The Sweet 16

There are multiple ways to define March Madness sleepers.

It could be an undervalued (but on-the-rise) contender in the March Madness odds market. It could be a talented squad that underperformed in the regular season but has a viable shot to make the Final Four. Or it could be an overlooked underdog that has a legitimate chance to advance to the Sweet 16 (if not beyond).

Indeed, each year March Madness sleepers come out of nowhere and wreak havoc on NCAA Tournament brackets.

So which March Madness sleepers that made it through the first weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament still offer value in the men’s college basketball futures market? Here are three that we believe fit that criteria heading into the Sweet 16.

Top sleeper picks for March Madness 2025

March Madness sleepers: Michigan State

It’s not often that a No. 2 seed qualifies as a March Madness sleeper — after all, if you draw a top-two seed, you’re viewed as no worse than the eighth-best team in the country.

For some reason, though, NCAA Tournament oddsmakers continue to have their doubts about this year’s Michigan State squad. Hence why they are one of our best March Madness sleepers.

A month ago, the Spartans were 50-to-1 to win their second national championship (and first since 2000). Coming into the Big Dance, those odds were still as high as 30-to-1.

Now, following a pair of comfortable opening-weekend victories in the South Region — victories that have the Spartans on a 10-1 straight-up and against-the-spread hot streak? Coach Tom Izzo’s troops have a national championship price ranging from +2000 to +2400.

What makes it all the more perplexing is that the bracket has fallen Michigan State’s way so far (at least as far as seeding goes).

After beating No. 15 seed Bryant in their first NCAA Tournament contest last week, the Spartans drew No. 10 seed New Mexico (which upset No. 7 seed Marquette in the Round of 64).

Now, instead of going up against No. 3 seed Iowa State in the Sweet 16, Michigan State will face No. 6 Ole Miss (which bounced the Cyclones in the Round of 32).

Obviously, the Spartans probably will have to go through No. 1 overall seed Auburn to get to the Final Four. And then, quite likely, No. 1 seed Florida to get to the national championship game — where either No. 1 seed Duke or No. 1 seed Houston could be waiting.

All four of those teams are power-rated higher than Michigan State (and rightfully so). That being said, the Spartans didn’t come close to putting together a solid 40-minute effort in either of their two wins over Bryant or New Mexico — and yet they’re still alive.

Imagine if Michigan State tightens things up from here. Now imagine if the bracket breaks that Sparty has gotten so far continue. Makes those 24-for-1 national championship odds a little more enticing, right?

• Best 2025 National Championship odds: +2400 (FanDuel) 
• Best 2025 Final Four odds: +310 (FanDuel)
• Best 2025 Elite Eight odds: -155 (bet365)
• Best Bet: To win the national championship

March Madness sleepers: Ole Miss

No, your eyes are not deceiving you — our second March Madness sleeper recommendation is about to face the March Madness sleeper we just finished praising.

Allow us to answer the obvious question: It’s simply about wagering value.

Ole Miss is anywhere from a 2.5- to a 3.5-point underdog against Michigan State in the Sweet 16. That suggests a victory Friday would only be a mild upset. 

So why are the Rebels’ odds to make the Final Four more than triple those for the Spartans at one sportsbook? 

Reminder: Ole Miss has already scored two upsets in the Big Dance, and both were emphatic victories: 71-64 over 11th-seeded North Carolina as a 1.5-point underdog in the first round, and 91-78 over No. 2 seed Iowa State as a 5.5-point underdog in the Round of 32.

Sure, the Rebels almost certainly will have to take out top-seeded Auburn to get to the Final Four. And, yes, they’re 0-3 against the Tigers this season. However, the most recent matchup was highly competitive (Ole Miss fell 62-57 in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals).

Look, we still believe Michigan State will take care of business against the Rebels on Friday. But if that doesn’t happen, Ole Miss will have pulled off three straight upsets — knocking off a No. 3 and a No. 2 seed in the process.

So why not take 8-to-1 Final Four odds on a March Madness sleeper that would be oozing with momentum (not to mention playing with a nothing-to-lose mentality)?

• Best 2025 National Championship odds: +135 (BetMGM)
• Best 2025 Final Four odds: +800 (FanDuel)
• Best 2025 Elite Eight odds: +310 (BetMGM & FanDuel)
• Best Bet: To make the Final Four

March Madness sleepers: Kentucky

It’s not very often that a college basketball blueblood like Kentucky could reach the Sweet 16 and still be considered a March Madness sleeper. Yet that’s indeed the case this season.

Of the four teams remaining in the Midwest Region, the Wildcats are the third choice to reach the Final Four and the 11th choice to cut down the nets in San Antonio in two weeks.

Heck, Kentucky is a substantial underdog just to defeat SEC rival and No. 2 seed Tennessee in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup … something the Wildcats have already done twice this year.

That’s right: Kentucky handed the Volunteers two of their seven defeats (78-73 at Tennessee and 75-64 at home). And senior guard Jaxson Robinson — the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer — didn’t play in the latter contest (and won’t again Friday, as he’s out for the season with an injury).

Going back to the start of the 2022-23 campaign, Kentucky is 5-1 in this rivalry — and all five victories were as an underdog.

If the Wildcats boost that record to 6-1, they’ll play the winner of No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston. So there are some serious hurdles Kentucky must clear to get back to the Final Four for the first time since capping a remarkable run of four consecutive Final Four appearances a decade ago.

Then again, Tennessee has never reached the Final Four (nor has legendary head coach Rick Barnes). 

Houston has fallen short of the national semifinals as a No. 1 seed each of the last two years (and been to just one Final Four in the last 43 years). 

And while Purdue got all the way to last year’s national championship game, it has made just two other Final Four appearances (and never in consecutive seasons).

So why not roll the dice with Kentucky to at least punch its ticket to San Antonio?

• Best 2025 National Championship Odds: +6000 (FanDuel)
• Best 2025 Final Four Odds: +700 (BetRivers & DraftKings)
• Best 2025 Elite Eight Odds: +170 (bet365 & Caesars Sportsbook)
• Best Bet: To make the Final Four

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March Madness Sleepers FAQs

What is a sleeper pick in March Madness?

A sleeper pick in March Madness refers to a lower-seeded team with long shot odds to win the men’s basketball national championship. Traditionally, March Madness sleepers are defined as being seeded No. 5 or lower and/or have odds of +2000 or longer to win the NCAA Tournament.

Since 1986, only four March Madness sleepers have won the national championship after entering the NCAA Tournament as a long shot of 20-to-1 or greater: Kansas in 1988 (+2000 pre-tournament odds), Florida in 2006 (+2000), UConn in both 2011 (+9500) and 2014 (+2500).

Also, only two teams seeded No. 5 or lower have won it all since 1986: No. 6 Kansas in 1988 and No. 7 UConn in 2014.

How do you identify a March Madness sleeper pick?

There are two ways to identify a March Madness sleeper pick. One involves how teams are seeded in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The bracket consists of four quadrants of 16 teams, each of which is assigned a ranking (i.e. seed) by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Generally speaking, any team seeded from No. 5 to No. 16 is considered a March Madness sleeper.

March Madness sleeper picks also can be identified by their national championship betting odds right before the NCAA Tournament tips off. Teams with pre-tournament odds of +2000 (20-to-1) or longer are usually labeled sleepers.

How often do sleeper picks succeed in March Madness?

Sleeper picks succeed quite frequently in March Madness in the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. However, as the tournament progresses, the vast majority of surviving teams usually have higher seeds and shorter national championship odds.

There are exceptions, though. In fact, at least one team seeded No. 5 or lower has reached the NCAA Tournament’s Final Four in 11 consecutive years. Also, the 2022-23 Final Four featured a No. 4 seed (UConn), two No. 5 seeds (San Diego State and Miami, Fla.), and one No. 9 seed (Florida Atlantic).

What impact do Cinderella teams have on the popularity of March Madness?

Cinderella teams have a tremendous impact on the popularity of March Madness — hence the word “madness”. Millions of sports fans across the country (and beyond) fill out NCAA Tournament brackets each year, predicting the results of 67 games that are played in the span of three weeks.

Because upsets are the norm in the NCAA Tournament — especially in the early rounds — many fans look to identify Cinderella teams they believe can win one or more games in the tournament. Most teams seeded between No. 10 and No. 16 are considered Cinderellas, as are teams that sportsbooks list as significant betting underdogs.

Have any Cinderella teams won the NCAA Tournament?

Most college basketball historians would acknowledge that four Cinderella teams have won the NCAA Tournament since the sport first instituted the seeding process prior to the 1979 event.

The first was North Carolina State. The Wolfpack entered the 1983 NCAA Tournament as a No. 6 seed and had national championship odds of +2500.

Two years later, Villanova stunned college basketball by winning the first 64-team tournament as a No. 8 seed. The Wildcats began the 1985 tournament with +3500 title odds.

The other two Cinderella teams to win the national championship were Kansas, which was a No. 6 seed in 1988, and UConn, which was a No. 7 seed in 2014.

What is the most famous Cinderella team?

The most famous Cinderella team in NCAA history is Villanova, which won the 1985 national championship with a stunning upset of a heavily favored Georgetown squad that was led by future Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing.

However, based on betting odds, UConn is by far the biggest underdog to win an NCAA men’s basketball championship. The Huskies won it all in 2014 despite their pre-tournament odds of +9500 (or 95-to-1).

By comparison, Villanova went into the 1985 NCAA Tournament with +3500 odds to win it all. The Wildcats had the 20th longest pre-tournament odds in 1985, while UConn had the 27th longest pre-tournament odds in 2014.