Conspiracy Theories and the 2024 US Election: An In-Depth Examination

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With political fervor in the United States reaching unprecedented heights ahead of the 2024 elections, it’s set to be one hell of a roller coaster. Amidst the chaos and debates, one phenomenon stands out—Americans’ love for conspiracy theories. These aren’t just whispers in the shadows; they’re bold assertions and speculative tales woven into the fabric of American political discourse.

Recent events, such as the speculation surrounding Taylor Swift’s alleged political ties, underscore the pivotal role these narratives play in shaping public perception and influencing the political landscape. Buckle up as Oddspedia delves into the realm of conspiracy theories and their impact on the 2024 presidential elections, based on insights from our politically representative survey of 3000 Americans nationwide.

Key Findings

  • Four in five Americans acknowledge belief in conspiracy theories.
  • Republicans (35%) are most prone to embrace conspiracy theories than Democrats (14%) and Independents (20%).
  • The top five states voted most likely to be conspiracy theorists were Florida, California, Texas, Alabama, and New York.
  • 83% Americans believe conspiracy theories impact public opinion about politics.
  • Top three most conspiracy types that are most prevalent are government involvement, health manipulation and secret societies and global influence.
  • 90% Americans feel conspiracy theories can sway voters’ perceptions on candidates.
  • 70% of Americans named Facebook and Twitter as the top platforms for spreading conspiracies.

Partisan Divide: The Impact of Political Views on Conspiracy Acceptance

Political affiliation plays a significant role in shaping individual susceptibility to conspiracy theories.
As indicated by the survey data, the Republican Party exhibits a higher propensity for embracing conspiracy narratives, with 35% of Republicans expressing significant or moderate belief in conspiracy theories, compared to 14% of Democrats and 20% of Independents.

In the mix of states considered most prone to conspiracy theories, we see a diverse range. While typically Republican strongholds like Florida and Texas make an appearance, there’s also surprises from traditionally Democratic states like New York and California. Even Washington, DC, although not a state, is a significant political hub, finds its place in the top ten, showcasing the widespread influence of conspiracy theories across the political spectrum.

The top 10 states most likely to be seen as conspiracy theorists are:

  1. Florida
  2. California
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
  5. New York
  6. Mississippi
  7. Kentucky
  8. Nevada
  9. Washington
  10. District of Columbia (DC)

Despite this, the results show that Republicans remain 2.5 times more likely than Democrats to hold significant or moderate belief in conspiracy theories.

Divided Realities: How Conspiracy Beliefs Shape Electoral Dynamics

Conspiracy beliefs have far-reaching implications for electoral dynamics, with 83% of Americans believing they influence public opinion. Furthermore, an overwhelming 90% of respondents confirm that they can sway voters’ perceptions of political candidates.

Partisan divisions are evident in perceptions regarding foreign entities’ involvement in promoting election-related conspiracy theories. When asked about their role in promoting conspiracy theories related to the upcoming US election, 65% of Democrats believe that foreign entities have “very” or “moderate” influential impact, versus Republicans at 49%, and Independents at 56%. This underscores the divergent views across party lines and suggests varying levels of skepticism towards external influences.

Interestingly, more than two-thirds of respondents’ express confidence in distinguishing between genuine concerns and unfounded conspiracy theories related to the election. However, one in five people in Utah, Massachusetts, and Connecticut expressed that they are “not very” or “not confident” in being about to distinguish between two, suggesting that addressing and debunking these narratives may be pivotal for electoral success.

Illuminating Perspectives: Exploring the Spectrum of Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy theories encompass a broad array of themes that captivate the public imagination. Below is a glimpse into the top five prevalent themes.

1. Government involvement: Two-thirds of Americans engage in discussions about government cover-ups and clandestine operations. Delaware emerges as a hub for these conversations.
Health and medical manipulation: Amidst the pandemic, concerns about medical manipulation and misinformation have surged, with almost half of respondents engaging in discussions on these topics. New Hampshire stands out as a hotbed for these conversations.
3. Secret societies and global influence: The allure of secret societies and global powers captivates 38% of respondents, resonating strongly in states like West Virginia.
4. Historical revisions and hidden truths: Reflecting on the past, 38% harbor suspicions about historical truths, echoing prominently in states like Nebraska.
5. Extra-terrestrial and cosmic conspiracies: Cosmic ponderings intrigue 37% of Americans, with states like Nebraska delving deeply into these cosmic speculations.

Other popular themes Americans engage in are around technological control, entertainment and celebrity conspiracies, political plots and assassination theories, global dominance and new world order, and environmental and weather manipulation.

One in five Republicans think Taylor Swift is a political psyops. In today’s landscape where entertainment and politics intersect, a recent conspiracy theory alleges that popstar is a political operative. While most Americans (73%) dismiss this notion, a striking 21% of Republicans entertain the idea, stating it is “extremely likely” or “likely,” contrasting sharply with the mere 5% of Democrats who share this belief. Again, this underscores the stark partisan divide in perceptions of celebrity involvement in politics.

The Web of Influence: How Social Media Shapes Conspiracy Beliefs

Social media platforms wield significant influence in amplifying conspiracy narratives, one in five Americans report encountering election-related conspiracy theories very frequently or frequently across their platforms.

Among the various platforms, Facebook and Twitter emerge as the primary channels for spreading such narratives.

However, there is a caveat: almost half of respondents (48%) indicated that they had little to no trust in information from sources outside mainstream media. When information can spread at unprecedented speeds, the emergence of AI deep fakes or misinformation presents an additional challenge in the realm of conspiracy theories, particularly on social media, though not exclusively.

Spectrum of Belief: Most Gullible or Skeptical Americans Nationwide

In the realm of conspiracy theories and the upcoming 2024 elections, understanding the spectrum of belief is crucial. Here, we delve into the states perceived as the most gullible and those fostering the highest levels of skepticism among their residents.

Most Gullible States:

  1. California
  2. Florida
  3. Alabama
  4. Texas
  5. Mississippi
  6. New York
  7. West Virginia
  8. Arkansas
  9. Kentucky
  10. Georgia

States with Highest Skepticism:

1. California
2. New York
3. Texas
4. Massachusetts
5. Florida
6. Washington DC / Washington
8. Colorado
9. New Hampshire
10. Connecticut / Vermont

Interestingly, many of these states overlap with each other, and with those identified as most likely to entertain fringe theories, suggesting a complex interplay between belief systems and critical thinking.

Conspiracy theories in US politics: A precedent

Donald Trump, the current frontrunner according to US oddsmakers for the 2024 US Election, has a well-documented history with conspiracy theories. Throughout his tenure as the 45th President of the United States, Trump has been linked to various conspiracy theories, including the “birther” conspiracy. Moreover, Trump has frequently perpetuated unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud, particularly following the 2020 presidential election, despite lacking evidence to support such allegations.

Recently, Joe Biden played into the conspiracy theorists on social media following the outcome of the Super Bowl. After the Kansas City Chiefs’ victory, Biden posted a picture on the platform X with the caption: “Just like we drew up,” seemingly alluding to the theory suggesting that the Chiefs and Taylor Swift were being utilized for political purposes.


In the lead-up to the 2024 US elections, conspiracy theories have entrenched themselves as a notable element of American political discourse. Our investigation reveals a landscape where politicians and social media platforms alike contribute to the spread of these theories, blurring the lines between intention and unintentional actions. Though clear partisan divides exist on topics like government control strategies and healthcare rumors, the reality transcends simplistic red versus blue ideologies.

The intricate dance between belief systems and critical thinking serves as a stark reminder of the challenges inherent in navigating the landscape. The impact of these theories on the presidential race is noteworthy, with the potential to either bolster or undermine a candidate’s credibility. Insights from best sportsbooks and US Election odds, including sportsbook promos, underscore the influence of these theories on public opinion and discourse, shaping the 2024 US election in consequential ways.


This study utilized a nationally representative survey conducted in February 2024 to investigate the prevalence and impact of conspiracy theories in the American discourse, culture and politics, specifically focusing on the upcoming 2024 US presidential election. A total of 3000 American adults participated in the survey, selected through representative sampling reflective across demographic variables such as age, gender, geographical location and political party ties.

All participants were over the age of 18 and eligible to vote at the time of the survey, ensuring that the findings accurately reflected the views of voting-age Americans. Political affiliation was assessed through self-report measures, allowing participants to identify as Democrats, Republicans, Independents, or members of other political parties.

Statistical analyses were conducted to reveal trends and associations, providing insights into the role of conspiracy theories in shaping public opinion and electoral dynamics. Results where states had less than 10 respondents were omitted.

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