AFC West Odds 2024: Can Harbaugh’s Chargers Dethrone the Chiefs?

Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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  • Will Jim Harbaugh recreate his success from San Francisco and Michigan?
  • Will the Nix pick pay off for Sean Payton?
  • Can anyone stop the Chiefs?

The Kansas City Chiefs may be favorites in the AFC West Odds through the offseason, however the division will be under the microscope for the 2024 NFL season.

The AFC West is headlined by the most dominant team of the 2020s, the Kansas City Chiefs. The back-to-back Super Bowl champions lead AFC West odds, followed by the Los Angeles Chargers and their new head coach, Jim Harbaugh.

The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders were both only one game under .500 but are much further behind in odds, partly because their quarterback room looks much different than many expected it to.

Here, we will discuss and analyze everything that goes into AFC West betting, including odds to win the AFC West, team rosters, offseason movement, strengths and weaknesses, and much more.

AFC West 2024 winner odds

Team Opening Odds Current Odds 2023 Record
Kansas City Chiefs -210 -230 11-6
Los Angeles Chargers +310 +350 8-9
Las Vegas Raiders +1000 +900 8-9
Denver Broncos +1300 +2000 5-12

Opening odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of May 8

AFC West odds

Kansas City Chiefs (-230)

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl earlier in the year despite being in a “rebuilding” season. QB Patrick Mahomes found a way to get his team over the line with very little in the way of skill position talent, a problem that should be remedied by the arrival of Marquise “Hollywood” Browns and first-round pick Xavier Worthy.

The catalyst for most of KC’s success last season was its defense, which ranked second in points and yards allowed and sacks accumulated. The team managed to retain the disruptive Chris Jones, while third-year pro Joshua Williams will step into the starting spot vacated by L’Jarius Sneed, who was dealt to the Tennessee Titans due to financial reasons.

There’s not much of a point in expecting the Chiefs to fall on their face given their success over the past half-decade-plus. The team that eventually reclaims the division from them will have to earn it with outstanding play, barring an injury to Mahomes.

Los Angeles Chargers (+350)

Harbaugh wasted no time making his mark on the Chargers. He cut ties with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, and rebuilt the Baltimore Ravens’ backfield with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. He also selected offensive tackle Joe Alt to solidify the edges, sticking with his preference to dominate the trenches.

The defense made several changes but is still headlined by Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Derwin James Jr., and Asante Samuel Jr. Harbaugh is known for having excellent defenses and will be charged with getting the best out of a talented roster that has underperformed and dealt with recurring injury problems.

The Chargers are no strangers to being the “next man up” in the division but have not yet managed to take the leap. This team will experience a major change in style with Harbaugh, but that just might be what it needs to break through.

Las Vegas Raiders (+900)

The Raiders won eight games despite rotating quarterbacks, firing their head coach, and being relatively bereft of talent. That’s a testament to Antonio Pierce, the former interim coach who was named the official head coach during the offseason, along with the resilience of the players.

Vegas probably expected to take Michael Penix Jr. or another one of the record-setting six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. They ended up with Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and will play either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew behind an offensive line Pro Football Focus ranked as the 10th-best in the league last year.

Vegas’ defense will be strong at the point of attack with Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins on the front line. Their secondary is the biggest concern, though they ranked 11th in passing yards allowed per game a year ago.

Denver Broncos (+2000)

Sean Payton painted himself into a corner with the decision to draft Oregon QB Bo Nix with the 12th pick. Rarely does the sixth QB taken in a draft go on to be a major success story, yet that’s what the former Super Bowl champion coach is depending on to upset the AFC West odds.

Nix set the all-time college record for starts and is probably closer to his ceiling than any other prospect. Payton and the Broncos also traded for New York Jets QB Zach Wilson, which gave them an opportunity to either tank for the year or steal a buy-low situation. Instead, they need to win games with Nix and do so quickly.

Denver’s defense was 27th in points allowed per game and didn’t get overwhelmingly better during the offseason. The team also let Jerry Jeudy go to the Chicago Bears and didn’t sign any elite receivers, running backs, or offensive linemen, which is why they find themselves at the bottom of the AFC West division odds 2024.

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AFC West betting history

The AFC West is the streakiest division in the entire NFL. Every champion since 2006 except for the Chiefs in 2010 won the division at least four years in a row, including KC’s ongoing eight-year streak.

Only one time since 2005 did the team that finished second in the division go on to win the title the following season.

The Raiders and Chargers are still searching for their first AFC West tiles in their new homes (Las Vegas and Los Angeles) since relocating in 2020 and 2017, respectively.

Every AFC West champion since 2011 won double-digit games, and they averaged a combined 12.3 wins.

Three times since 2000 did a team make the jump from worst to first in the division—the Chiefs in 2003 and 2010, and the Chargers in 2004. That’s significant since the Chargers finished in fourth a year ago but are second in odds to win the AFC West this time around.

Although this isn’t an overall divisional trend, Mahomes is 30-5 against the AFC West in his career. Any team that wants to challenge for the division title will likely have to take him down head-to-head to have a reasonable chance.

Past AFC West Winners

Year Winner Runner-Up
2023 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
2022 Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
2021 Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) Las Vegas Raiders (10-7)
2020 Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)
2019 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) Denver Broncos (7-9)
2018 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) Los Angeles Chargers (12-4)
2017 Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)
2016 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) Oakland Raiders (12-4)
2015 Denver Broncos (12-4) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
2014 Denver Broncos (12-4) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
2013 Denver Broncos (13-3) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
2012 Denver Broncos (13-3) San Diego Chargers (7-9)
2011 Denver Broncos (8-8) San Diego Chargers (8-8)
2010 Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) San Diego Chargers (9-7)
2009 San Diego Chargers (13-3) Denver Broncos (8-8)
2008 San Diego Chargers (8-8) Denver Broncos (8-8)
2007 San Diego Chargers (11-5) Denver Broncos (7-9)
2006 San Diego Chargers (14-2) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
2005 Denver Broncos (13-3) Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
2004 Oakland Raiders (12-4) Denver Broncos (10-6)
2003 Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) Denver Broncos (10-6)
2002 Oakland Raiders (11-5) Denver Broncos (9-7)
2001 Oakland Raiders (10-6) Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
2000 Oakland Raiders (12-4) Denver Broncos (11-5)

Want more insights on NFL betting markets?

Take a look at other Oddspedia Insights articles that give you everything you need in order to become a more informed bettor.

AFC West odds FAQs

Who are the favorites to win the AFC West in 2024?

The Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites in AFC West division odds 2024 coming off eight straight division-winning seasons.

Which teams are in the AFC West?

The AFC West is made up of the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Denver Broncos.

Who are the traditional rivals in the AFC West?

The Broncos and Raiders are bitter rivals thanks to their many encounters and fateful memories. The Chiefs and Broncos have a strong rivalry of their own, while the Chargers and Raiders share animosity from their time playing in the same state (California).

How many times has an AFC West team won the Super Bowl?

The AFC West is responsible for 10 Super Bowl champions: the Chiefs (4x), the Broncos (3x), and the Raiders (3x).

How do futures bets work in NFL betting?

Futures betting in the NFL is all about long-term prognostications. These bets involve outcomes that won’t be determined until a late date, such as whether a team will go over or under its projected win total, which player will win the MVP, which team will win the division, conference, and Super Bowl, or who will win the sacks title, just to name a few.

What are the key factors to consider when betting on the AFC West?

AFC West futures betting and NFL futures in general involve a number of factors, such as roster strengths and weaknesses, coaching, scheduling, injuries and trades, off-field drama, trends and precedent, head-to-head matchups, experience, external motivation, and other factors.

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