NFL MVP Odds 2024-25: Is It Stroud’s Year?

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
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The NFL MVP is the league’s highest individual honor, awarded to the league’s ‘Most Valuable’ player after every season.

The NFL’s top quarterbacks have had a monopoly on this award the last few seasons, with Lamar Jackson taking the MVP in 2023. This year’s NFL MVP odds are led by Patrick Mahomes (+650) and Josh Allen (+800). I’ll break down the top contenders from the best sportsbooks and give out a potential value pick below.

Let’s take a look at the early NFL MVP odds board.

NFL MVP odds

Player Position Current Odds
Kansas City Patrick Mahomes QB +500
Buffalo Josh Allen QB +800
Houston CJ Stroud QB +1000
Cincinnati Joe Burrow QB +1000
Green Bay Jordan Love QB +1400
L.A. Chargers Justin Herbert QB +1400
Philadelphia Jalen Hurts QB +1400

NFL MVP odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of June 12

2024 NFL MVP opening odds

Player Position Opening Odds
Kansas City Patrick Mahomes QB +600
Buffalo Josh Allen QB +800
Houston CJ Stroud QB +1100
Cincinnati Joe Burrow QB +900
Green Bay Jordan Love QB +1600
L.A. Chargers Justin Herbert QB +1400
Philadelphia Jalen Hurts QB +1400

NFL MVP favorites

These current NFL MVP odds hold a lot of familiar faces. The top passing QBs from a year ago are, unsurprisingly, favored to win the award in 2024:

Kansas City Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+500)

The NFL MVP is basically Mahomes’ to lose these days. He’s received MVP votes in four of the last six seasons, winning the award twice. But he had a bit of a ‘down’ regular season last year, ‘only’ passing for 4183 yards and 27 TDs. It didn’t matter come the playoffs, though. He’s one of the main reasons why the Chiefs have the best Super Bowl odds once again.

I like his receiving core a lot more in 2024, though, with Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown joining Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Maybe there’s another 5,000-yard season in Mahomes’ future? If the KC QB can do that, he’ll probably win another MVP.

Buffalo Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+800)

Josh Allen – whose Buffalo Bills own +700 AFC Championship odds – is always going to be in the MVP conversation with how much the Bills’ offense relies on him. In recent seasons, they’ve let Allen throw the ball nearly 600 times while rushing it over 100 times, too. However, I have my concerns about his elbow health and the state of Buffalo’s attack. With Stefon Diggs out of Buffalo, I’m not sure if Allen is going to be able to finally get an MVP throwing the ball to Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid.

Houston CJ Stroud, Houston Texans (+1000)

I honestly love CJ Stroud at these odds. There’s always a chance he has a sophomore step-back, but if the Texans QB can build off his rookie season, he’ll easily be an MVP contender by the end of the year.

He finished eighth in the MVP odds last year, leading the league in yards per game and posting the lowest interception rate of any QB. Add Stefon Diggs into that Houston offense, and Stroud might be the most exciting player in the league not named Patrick Mahomes.

NFL MVP long shot

Indianapolis Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (+3000)

We only got the smallest of glimpses of Anthony Richardson (+3000) last year before the Colts QB got hurt, but I loved everything I saw. The stats don’t jump off the page, but Indy’s offense was balling with Richardson on the field.

He’s got the potential to put up a Lamar Jackson-esque MVP season, throwing for 25+ passing touchdowns and racking up double-digit scores on the ground, too. With one of the most stable offensive lines in the NFL and an underrated receiver core (I love Josh Downs and the recently-drafted Adonai Mitchell), I like Richardson as a 2024 MVP long shot. He has the explosiveness to pop off in a way that a lot of lower-tier MVP candidates just don’t have.

How is NFL MVP decided?

The NFL’s MVP award is decided by a group of 50 football journalists and broadcasters who vote at the end of the regular season. The voters consider players’ individual performance and impact on their team’s overall success, casting a five-player ranked ballot. The player with the most MVP vote points is awarded the MVP at the end of the season, presented at the NFL’s yearly award show.

How to read NFL MVP odds

You can read NFL MVP odds similar to any other futures markets. When looking at an American style odds format, negative odds signify favorites and positive odds indicate underdogs. For example, if Patrick Mahomes has -150 odds, a bettor would need to wager $150 to win $100 if he wins MVP. If Aaron Rodgers has +300 odds, betting $100 would yield $300 in profit if he wins. The larger the plus number is, the bigger the underdog — but the bigger the potential payout, too.

NFL MVP betting trends

  • Aaron Rodgers is the only NFC QB to win NVL MVP since 2016
  • The last four NFL MVP winners have been repeat winners
  • A non-quarterback hasn’t won the MVP since 2012
  • A defensive player hasn’t won NFL MVP since 1986
  • Aaron Rodgers is the only player since 2010 to win back-to-back MVPs

NFL MVP previous winners

Year MVP Winner
2023 Lamar Jackson
2022 Patrick Mahomes
2021 Aaron Rodgers
2020 Aaron Rodgers
2019 Lamar Jackson
2018 Patrick Mahomes
2017 Tom Brady
2016 Matt Ryan
2015 Cam Newton
2014 Aaron Rodgers
2013 Peyton Manning

Ready to bet on NFL MVP odds?

The NFL MVP odds have been released, so now’s the best time to place your value picks at the top sportsbooks before they slide up the odds board.

Our best NFL MVP betting sites

To make sure you get the most value on your NFL odds, go to the best NFL betting sites prior to placing your wagers throughout the season.

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Want more insights on NFL betting markets?

Take a look at other Oddspedia Insights articles that give you everything you need in order to become a more informed bettor.

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