NFL Projected Win Totals and Over Under Odds 2024: 49ers And Chiefs Given A High Bar

© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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  • 2023 Super Bowl teams both set at 11.5 wins
  • Will Derrick Henry carry the Ravens Over 10.5 wins?
  • The Patriots expected to be worst team in NFL at 4.5 wins

The page on the 2023 NFL season officially turned after the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl, and NFL win total odds are painting the picture of what is to come in 2024.

Although there are still plenty of changes to come with training camps still at least a month away, teams can already be separated into different tiers of contenders, rebuilders, and franchises stuck somewhere in the middle.

The Chiefs, Niners, and Baltimore Ravens all have the highest projected NFL win totals following successful campaigns in the previous season. But how do the rest of the teams stack up?

Join me as I break down the 2024 NFL season win totals for all 32 teams and offer insight on how to find the best lines and what betting strategies when betting this market.

NFL win totals odds 2024-2025

NFL Season Win Total Over Under
Arizona Cardinals Win Total: 6.5 -150 +125
Atlanta Falcons Win Total: 9.5 -135 +115
Baltimore Ravens Win Total: 10.5 -135 +115
Buffalo Bills Win Total: 10.5 +130 -155
Carolina Panthers Win Total: 5.5 -115 -105
Chicago Bears Win Total: 8.5 -165 +140
Cincinnati Bengals Win Total: 10.5 -140 +120
Cleveland Browns Win Total: 8.5 -135 +115
Dallas Cowboys Win Total: 10.5 +115 -135
Denver Broncos Win Total: 5.5 -135 +115
Detroit Lions Win Total: 10.5 -120 +100
Green Bay Packers Win Total: 9.5 -135 +115
Houston Texans Win Total: 9.5 -140 +120
Indianapolis Colts Win Total: 8.5 +105 -125
Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total: 8.5 -110 -110
Kansas City Chiefs Win Total: 11.5 -110 -110
Las Vegas Raiders Win Total: 6.5 -130 +105
Los Angeles Chargers Win Total: 8.5 -155 +130
Los Angeles Rams Win Total: 8.5 -140 +115
Miami Dolphins Win Total: 9.5 -135 +115
Minnesota Vikings Win Total: 6.5 -145 +120
New England Patriots Win Total: 4.5 -160 +135
New Orleans Saints Win Total: 7.5 -120 +100
New York Giants Win Total: 6.5 +115 -135
New York Jets Win Total: 9.5 -150 +125
Philadelphia Eagles Win Total: 10.5 +105 -125
Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total: 8.5 +140 -165
San Francisco 49ers Win Total: 11.5 +105 -125
Seattle Seahawks Win Total: 7.5 -120 +100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total: 8.5 +125 -150
Tennessee Titans Win Total: 6.5 +115 -135
Washington Commanders Win Total: 6.5 -120 +100

Odds provided by DraftKings – accurate as of June 4

NFL Win Totals

AFC East

Buffalo Bills – Over/Under 10.5

A turbulent offseason sees the Bills take a step back after failing to replace Stefon Diggs with a legitimate No. 1 WR.

Miami Dolphins – Over/Under 9.5

The Dolphins turned over their defense through the offseason, losing players like Christian Wilkins, while gaining veteran safety Jordan Poyer and edge rusher Shaq Barrett.

The biggest question looming over South Beach right now is the contract status of Tua Tagovailoa. Do they like Tua enough to resign him to what will likely be the richest contract in the NFL?

New England Patriots – Over/Under 4.5

New head coach Jerod Mayo got himself a franchise QB in Drake Maye, but this may still be a down period with a roster that’s still one of the worst in football.

New York Jets – Over/Under 9.5

Will Aaron Rodgers be fit? Can he play a 17-game season? So much of the Jets’ season and their win total relies on having four-time MVP A-Rod for more than three snaps in 2024.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens – Over/Under 10.5

Despite signing Derrick Henry to help bolster an already potent run game, the Ravens lost three starters on the offensive line. How will the new-look OL hold up when Lamar Jackson hands the ball off in Week 1?

Cincinnati Bengals – Over/Under 10.5

The Bengals didn’t bungle the 2024 NFL offseason by franchise tagging WR2 Tee Higgins to give them more time to sign a long-term deal, and securing the signature of some premium free agent talent in OL Trent Brown among others. Keeping Joe Burrow healthy has to be the priority and with him under center, they can expect to go deep in to the playoffs again.

Cleveland Browns – Over/Under 8.5

How many games does Deshaun Watson lose before we are allowed to talk about the trade for his services being among the worst bits of business in NFL history? Outside of the quarterback room, this is a roster that is built to push for the playoffs: So if Watson can get right, they’ll be a legitimate force in the AFC.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Over/Under 8.5

The Steelers made splash moves and addressed their biggest weakness from 2023 by picking up Russell Wilson and ending the Kenny Pickett experiment. They also traded for Justin Fields, giving them two of the more mobile pocket passers in the NFL.

AFC South

Houston Texans – Over/Under 9.5

Riding the wave of the double Rookie of the Year award wins for CJ Stroud and Will Anderson, the Texans added Stefon Diggs – giving Stroud a legitimate WR1. Head coach, Demeco Ryans has clearly built something special in the culture they have down in H-Town: I’m excited to see where they can go in Year 2.

Indianapolis Colts – Over/Under 8.5

Can Anthony Richardson stay healthy for 17 games? That’s the only question that matters for the Colts in the young QB’s sophomore season. Richardson only played four games in 2023 before going on the injured reserve, and he left every one of those games at some point due to injury. This is one to watch as the wheels could come off the Colts’ wagon if Richardson quickly lands back on the injury report.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Over/Under 8.5

Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson are now in their third year together, and they’ve yet to truly deliver on the potential one would expect in a number one overall draft pick and a former Super Bowl winning head coach. It’s put-up or shut-up time, and Pederson’s recent contract extension should not be mistaken for a show of faith from an organisation who hasn’t retained a head coach for more than four seasons since 2011.

Tennessee Titans – Over/Under 6.5

The Titans will be a different beast in 2024, having moved on from key franchise pillar, running back Derrick Henry. They also signed Calvin Ridley and traded for Chiefs CB, L’Jarius Sneed. Gone is the run-first, run-second and sometimes run-third approach, we can expect to see second-year QB Will Levis be handed the keys to a passing offense designed to maximize his arm talent.

AFC West

Denver Broncos – Over/Under 5.5

The Sean Payton/Russ Wilson marriage was never going to last and the Broncos are eating a whole heap of dead salary cap to enjoy a new life with Bo Nix. Nix may or may not have been a reach, but at least he is the man Coach Payton wants under center which will make for an easier relationship.

Kansas City Chiefs – Over/Under 11.5

The rich stayed rich in the 2024 offseason.

Chris Jones stayed in KC and Travis Kelce signed a contract extension to prolong his stay and position as Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target. The Chiefs lost their CB1 to the Titans, but they had a very strong draft, pulling in contributors or starters in many rounds.

Las Vegas Raiders – Over/Under 6.5

The Raiders signed a premium defensive piece in Christian Wilkins, but the pick up of Gardner Minshew shows the team is committed to Aidan O’Connell under center in 2024.

Playing in a division ruled by the Super Bowl champs, it’s going to be hard for Las Vegas to make a playoff run, but it’s solidified and will push the Chargers for second place and a wild card spot.

Los Angeles Chargers – Over/Under 8.5

The biggest acquisition for the Chargers is on the sidelines, with serial winner (and oddball) Jim Harbaugh returning to the NFL after a successful run in the college ranks with Michigan.

The team lost some series veteran talent, most notably Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams. A great draft that saw them pick up top-tier OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey and other future starters will help them redefine the identity of a team that sits in the shadow of its divisional rivals.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys – Over/Under 10.5

In what is seen by many as a two-horse race with Philadelphia, the Cowboys took three steps back at the start line of the 2024 NFL season. With an anemic free agency crop and serious losses from their own UFA group, the ‘Boys are playing catchup to stay competitive in the NFC East.

New York Giants – Over/Under 6.5

Saquon Barkley moved in-division which has to stick in the craw of many Giants fans, but the G-Men still made strong moves through the offseason – trading for edge rusher Brian Burns and picking up some serious young talent in the NFL draft, highlighted by WR Malik Nabers. Not moving on from Daniel Jones at QB may be seen as a serious error depending on how the 2024 season unfolds.

Philadelphia Eagles – Over/Under 10.5

What’s a salary cap? Are some teams exempt? It certainly seems so whenever Eagles GM Howie Roseman unlocks his phone and starts making calls. The Eagles were very active in free agency – re-adding polarizing DB CJ Gardner-Johnson and a number of other defensive starters before playing the NFL draft game perfectly, addressing major needs by picking up two of the top defensive backs available in the first two rounds.

Washington Commanders – Over/Under 6.5

There is a new broom in Washington DC. That new broom has swept away the coaching staff, the culture, and even the starting quarterback. Sam Howell is gone after a reasonable season in 2023, replaced with LSU rookie Jayden Daniels who many people compare to Lamar Jackson.

Daniels, paired with an aggressive free agent crop, should make the Commanders a compelling narrative for 2024.

NFC North

Chicago Bears – Over/Under 8.5

The Bears got their man in Caleb Williams and in doing so, moved on from the controversial Justin Fields era. They’re surrounding him with talent too, signing D’Andre Swift from the Eagles, trading for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze.

After watching Fields struggle with little-to-no supporting cast, Williams will get every chance to succeed in the NFC North.

Detroit Lions – Over/Under 10.5

The Super Bowl window is wide open in Detroit. Wow.

Resigning their QB, best WR and best OL were priorities and smart moves from a franchise that doesn’t have a great reputation for smart moves. They also picked up some great talent in free agency like Pro Bowler OL Kevin Zeitler.

Green Bay Packers – Over/Under 9.5

While the Packers lost some key free agents and long-time franchise contributors like Aaron Jones, they made upgrades to some spots like securing the signature of former NFL rushing champ Josh Jacobs.

Minnesota Vikings – Over/Under 9.5

Kirk Cousins is gone and JJ McCarthy is here in the Twin Cities. The former Michigan man walks into the enviable position of throwing his passes to one of the league’s best wide receivers in Justin Jefferson, who just signed the richest non-QB contract in NFL history.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons – Over/Under 9.5

“With the eighth overall pick, the Atlanta Falcons select: Hilarious controversy and a furious fanbase.”

After making Kirk Cousins one of the richest men in football, the Falcons doubled down on the QB spot by drafting Michael Penix Jr less than two months later. This is the kind of move that either secures GOAT status for a GM when it works out or gets everyone fired when it all comes crashing down.

This is an absolute coin flip and must-see TV for all neutral football fans.

Carolina Panthers – Over/Under 5.5

The Panthers moved on from Frank Reich during the 2023 season and replaced him with former Tampa Bay Buccaneers OC Dave Canales.

Canales inherits an unhappy roster lacking talent as all its stars are gone to new pastures and the consensus wrong first pick from the 2023 NFL Draft in Bryce Young. Can he rebuild the confidence of the playcaller? That’s the biggest question in Carolina for 2024.

New Orleans Saints – Over/Under 7.5

The Saints flew under the radar through the offseason, quietly moving on from Michael Thomas, polarising QB Jameis Winston and OL Andrus Peat. They drafted Spencer Rattler in the fifth round as a development talent behind Derek Carr, but how long into the season will it be before the Saints fandom are calling for Rattler to be under center in Carr’s place?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Over/Under 8.5

“Taking care of business.” That’s how the Bucs handled the 2024 offseason: re-signing reasonably priced but successful QB, Baker Mayfield, franchise all-timer Mike Evans, Lavonte David and young safety, Antoine Winfield Jr. All of which must be seen as great moves to solidify a team that will surely push for a divisional championship this season.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals – Over/Under 6.5

Kyler Murray got his No. 1 target in Marvin Harrison Jr., but for how long will their relationship last? Murray has proven himself injury prone and unreliable, so it’s a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ newly acquired QB Desmond Ridder sees the field.

Los Angeles Rams – Over/Under 8.5

Generational defensive lineman Aaron Donald retired, leaving an enormous hole in the Rams defensive and their culture. They drafted Jared Verse in the first round and picked up some meaningful free agents earlier in 2024. It remains to be seen whether the Rams can move on from losing their best player potentially of all time.

San Francisco 49ers – Over/Under 11.5

As perennial deep playoff presences for the last few years, the 49ers appeared to take the 2024 offseason as a break from football, rather than a chance to increase their lead at the top of the NFC. The 49ers lost some key pieces from their defense while failing to address their offensive line woes of last season. This could be the year San Francisco slides back into the NFC pack.

Seattle Seahawks – Over/Under 7.5

Pete Carroll is not the Seattle Seahawks head coach. That’s going to take some getting used to.

The Seahawks had a clean draft but failed to address their lack of quality edge play. Watch out for them picking up someone like Carl Lawson or Yannick Ngakoue to add veteran production as the offseason progresses.

NFL over/under win totals results 2023-2024

The Houston Texans and Detroit Lions were a couple of the biggest success stories in 2023, while the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers were among the most significant disappointments.

Here’s how each team performed against its projected win total in 2023.

2023-24 NFL Over Results

  • Baltimore Ravens – over 8.5 (13-4)
  • Buffalo Bills – over 10.5 (11-6)
  • Cleveland Browns – over 8.5 (11-6)
  • Dallas Cowboys – over 9.5 (12-5)
  • Detroit Lions – over 9.5 (12-5)
  • Green Bay Packers – over 7.5 (9-8)
  • Houston Texans – over 6.5 (10-7)
  • Indianapolis Colts – over 6.5 (9-8)
  • Las Vegas Raiders – over 6.5 (8-9)
  • Los Angeles Rams – over 7.5 (10-7
  • Miami Dolphins – over 9.5 (11-6)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers – over 8.5 (10-7)
  • San Francisco 49ers – over 11.5 (12-5)
  • Seattle Seahawks – over 8.5 (9-8)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers  – over 6.5 (9-8)

2023-24 NFL Under Results

  • Arizona Cardinals – under 4.5 (4-13)
  • Atlanta Falcons – under 7.5 (7-10)
  • Carolina Panthers – under 7.5 (2-15)
  • Chicago Bears – under 7.5 (7-10)
  • Cincinnati Bengals – under 11.5 (9-8)
  • Denver Broncos – under 8.5 (8-9)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars – under 9.5 (9-8)
  • Kansas City Chiefs – under 11.5 (11-6)
  • Los Angeles Chargers – under 9.5 (5-12)
  • Minnesota Vikings – under 8.5 (7-10)
  • New England Patriots – under 7.5 (4-13)
  • New Orleans Saints – under 9.5 (9-8)
  • New York Giants – under 8.5 (6-11)
  • New York Jets – under 9.5 (7-10)
  • Philadelphia Eagles – under 11.5 (11-6)
  • Tennessee Titans – under 7.5 (6-11)
  • Washington Commanders – under 7.5 (4-13)

How to read NFL win totals odds

Betting the Over or Under on an NFL win total is the same process as betting the Over/Under on a game total, a player’s prop line, or anything else.

Let’s use the Minnesota Vikings as an example. They lost Kirk Cousins in the offseason and had a down year last year, which means they could struggle again in 2024.

The Vikings’ NFL win total odds are Over/Under 6.5 wins, which means any fewer than 6.5 wins will cash an “Under” bet and any more than 6.5 wins will cash an “Over” bet.

There are -135 odds on the Under, meaning a bettor must wager $135 to win $100. Conversely, there are +110 odds on the Over, which means that a bettor will win $110 with a $100 stake if the Vikings win more than 6.5 games.

So, if you bet $25 on the Vikings Under 6.5 wins and they finish the year 4-13, you will win $18.52.

If you bet $50 on the Vikings over 6.5 wins and they finish 8-9, you will win $55.
It does not matter to what degree a team goes over or under its projected win total in 2024; the payout will remain the same as long as they finish either over or under, depending on which side you bet.

How to bet on NFL win totals

Betting on NFL win total odds is easy. Just load up a preferred sportsbook, navigate to the NFL section, find a tab for futures bets, and then locate the team and line of your choice.

Note that sportsbooks will have different odds and, in some instances, different total projections for wins. That may create more opportunity but also more variance in possible results.

Once a user has decided on their favorite line and odds, they must apply a bet amount and submit the wager. The bet will be considered “active” until the final outcome is determined.

NFL win totals betting strategy

There are many ways to win money by betting on NFL win total odds. A great feel for the sport and a keen awareness of what went on during the offseason and the previous year are significant assets. However, finding ways to take advantage of the sportsbooks can also be beneficial.

Here are a few tips to remember when placing bets on NFL team totals.

Shop for the best odds

Hunting for the best odds, also known as “line shopping,” is a simple yet effective way for a bettor to put themselves in the most advantageous position possible.

Have you ever gone to a store that offered price matching? Sure, they have those shoes you want for $200, but you found a pair online for $119.99. The store will honor that price; voila, you saved more than $80.

That example is basically what happens in line shopping. Once a bettor settles on an over/under for an NFL win total, they’ll want to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best NFL win total odds.

These odds can be related to the total itself or the value of the line. For example, FanDuel might have a team at over/under 8.5 wins, while BetMGM might have them at over/under 9.5 wins. Or, FanDuel could have over 8.5 wins priced at -115, while BetMGM has over 8.5 wins at +105.

The better of the two odds will depend on which side the bettor is on, but the variation means that one side will be more advantageous than the other.

Betting promos

Promos are special deals for new and returning bettors at the best sportsbooks.

These promos can be applied to varying markets and often have different qualifications or rules. If promos allow betting on futures markets, bettors may use them to fund their over/under bets on NFL team totals.

The best sportsbook promos may come in the form of bet insurance, odds boosts, or anything else the sportsbook decides to offer. Check out what is available under a sportsbook’s “promotions” section.

Recency bias

Bias isn’t always bad, but it is ever-present and will affect how a bettor approaches their wagers.

Recency bias can apply to pretty much anything related to a football team; whether a player on their team is adored or hated, if they played poorly or amazingly in their last game, if they disappointed or overachieved in their previous season, how their final game went, and so on.

Again, bias exists for a reason. Balance bias with analysis and projections as to how whatever it is on your mind will play into the team’s next season, but only place NFL win total bets once bias is accounted for.

NFL Win Totals Odds FAQs

What is the best sportsbook to bet on NFL win totals?

What is the best sportsbook for NFL win totals? Well, that depends on what a bettor decides their favorite bet(s) is/are. Simply put, bettors should always find the sportsbook with the most favorable NFL odds to give themselves the best chance at winning, which is why line shopping is vital.

Where do I find NFL win totals on a sportsbook?

NFL win totals can be found in most sportsbooks’ futures section of the NFL or football tab. They are usually labeled as “Wins,” “Regular Season Wins,” “Record,” or something of that nature. All lines will come with odds for both the over and under, along with other futures and prop bets.

Who has the fewest expected wins in 2024-2025?

The Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots are tied for the worst NFL win total odds, as both teams have an over/under of just 4.5 wins. The Panthers finished an NFL-worst 2-15 last year, while the Pats went 4-13 in Bill Belichick’s final season in New England. Whereas the Patriots have a top-three pick in the NFL Draft, the Panthers sent their first-round selection to the Chicago Bears in the trade to secure the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and Bryce Young.

When are win totals released?

NFL win total odds are released any time immediately after the Super Bowl up until a few months in the offseason, depending on the sportsbook and the circumstances. Regardless of when the odds are first released, they are constantly updated with news of injuries, signings, trades, movement on other teams, and more. Getting in on a team’s total before these moves can be risky but may pay off if they improve their situation after the best has been placed.

Can win totals change during the season?

NFL over/under win totals will change once an NFL season begins to reflect a team’s record, the strength of their schedule, injuries, trades, performance, and more. Spotting a team on the rise or quickly falling early on is an excellent way for a bettor to put themselves in the driver’s seat, though recency bias can cloud judgment. Waiting until later in the season to place a wager will give the bettor more time for analysis, but it will also provide the same to the oddsmakers.

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