Travis Kelce Prop Bets & Odds for Super Bowl 58

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
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Travis Kelce prop bet picks for Super Bowl

Not sure if you’ve heard of this guy named Travis Kelce? He’s a pretty decent football player for the Kansas City Chiefs, and he has a somewhat famous girlfriend. 

Both will be inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58, but only one has the opportunity to win the Super Bowl. 

And, of course, the list of Travis Kelce prop bets for the All-Pro tight end’s matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is nearly as long as his pop-star girlfriend’s list of No. 1 hits. They are among the most popular Super Bowl best bets you can find.

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Travis Kelce Super Bowl prop bets

Before diving into Travis Kelce prop bets, a quick word on his better half and her involvement in Super Bowl 58:

Yes, Taylor Swift is expected to attend the game. Yes, she probably will be shown on TV before, during and after the game more than bags of chips and luxury cars combined.

And yes, there are Taylor Swift Super Bowl props swirling out there. While you’re doing a deep dive, certain sportsbooks like FanDuel are even going as far as offering a proposal prop. Will Kelce propose to Swift? Yes (+820), No (-2000). You be the judge, you make the wager.

And, of course, there are plenty of ways bettors can wager on her boyfriend at the best sportsbooks heading into the 49ers vs. Chiefs matchup on Feb. 11.

Read on for our top Travis Kelce Super Bowl 58 prop bet recommendations.

© Sam Greene / USA TODAY NETWORK

Travis Kelce to score an anytime touchdown (+105 at FanDuel)

It’s the primary objective of every defensive coordinator who faces the Kansas City Chiefs: Keep your eyes on Travis Kelce at all times, and for the love of god, don’t let that beast anywhere near the end zone. He’s one of the favorites to win Super Bowl MVP for a reason.

The mission is admirable. It’s also usually foolhardy — especially at this time of year.

In 21 playoff games, Kelce has scored an astounding 19 touchdowns. And going back to the 2017-18 postseason, he has found the end zone at least once 13 times in his last 18 contests.

That includes touchdowns in Super Bowl 54 against San Francisco and Super Bowl 57 last year against the Philadelphia Eagles. (He was held out of the end zone in a 31-9 loss to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55.)

Kelce entered this postseason in the midst of a stunning touchdown drought — he failed to score in any of Kansas City’s final seven regular-season games and had just one TD in the last 10 contests.

The drought continued in a 26-7 Wild Card victory over the Miami Dolphins. But in the last two weeks, Kelce has rekindled his relationship with the goal line.

He had two touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 27-24 AFC Divisional Playoffs victory at Buffalo, and he got his team on the board first in last week’s 17-10 AFC Championship Game win at Baltimore. 

Granted, you have to go back to last year’s postseason for the last time Kelce scored touchdowns in three straight games. But since the Super Bowl 55 upset loss to Tampa Bay, Kelce has found the end zone at least once — and 10 times in all — in eight of nine playoff games.

The only exception? Against Miami in the playoffs, in sub-zero weather conditions.

So let’s roll the dice on Kelce to spoil the 49ers’ best laid defensive plans and cross the goal line with the pigskin in hand at least once in Super Bowl 58.

(What about betting on Kelce to score the first touchdown? We don’t recommend it. Yes, he turned that trick last week against Baltimore. But a tight end has scored the first touchdown just seven times in 57 Super Bowls — and only once in the past 18 years.)

Chiefs vs 49ers Travis Kelce anytime TD
Prediction YES
Odds +105 at FanDuel

Odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of February 11

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Travis Kelce total receptions OVER 6.5 (-185 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Over the course of the entire season (playoffs included), opposing tight ends have  averaged 5.5 receptions per game against San Francisco.

However, the 49ers have given up more than six catches to tight ends just five times in 19 games — and that’s cumulative for the position group, not just individual tight ends.

For instance, three different Packers accounted for the seven tight end receptions in the Divisional Playoffs.

Ah, but look what happened in last week’s NFC Championship Game when hot-shot Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta matched up against San Francisco’s defense: 13 targets, nine catches, 97 yards.

Five games earlier, little-known Cardinals tight end Trey McBride strafed the Niners for a career-high 10 catches (and 102 yards).

The only other upper-echelon tight end that San Francisco faced this year? Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson. His reception total: 11 (for 86 yards).

Obviously, the 49ers will scheme to keep the ball out of Kelce’s hands. But everyone does that, and it rarely works — because Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a wizard with the pigskin and knows how to get it into the hands of his most talented teammate. As a result, it might be a good idea to get into some Mahomes props for Super Bowl 58. 

So we’re counting on at least seven Mahomes-to-Kelce connections in Super Bowl 58 — which is precisely what has transpired in nine of Kansas City’s last 12 playoff games.

Chiefs vs 49ers Travis Kelce receptions
Prediction OVER 6.5
Odds -185 at Caesars Sportsbook

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook – accurate as of February 11

    Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

    Travis Kelce total receiving yards UNDER 71.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Allow us to shift completely into contrarian mode by recommending a wager on Kelce finishing with fewer than 71 receiving yards.

    Why is that contrarian? Well, because here are Kelce’s receiving yardage totals in his last 12 playoff games, beginning with an AFC Divisional clash against Cleveland in the 2020-21 postseason:

    109, 118, 133 (Super Bowl 55), 108, 96, 95, 98, 78, 81 (Super Bowl 57), 71, 75, 116.

    That’s right: Kelce has beaten his Super Bowl 58 receiving yards prop of 70.5 in each of his last dozen postseason outings.

    Absolutely remarkable. The only thing more remarkable? We’re fading this 12-game, four-year streak. And for good reason.

    Think about it: Oddsmakers know that Kelce is at the peak of his popularity — he’s arguably one of the 10 most famous people on the planet right now. 

    They know everyone — diehard NFL fans, casual NFL fans, and those who only tune in for the Super Bowl — will be betting the Over on all of Kelce’s props, particularly this one.

    So why set this receiving yards prop at 70.5 (and as low as 69.5 elsewhere)? Because those oddsmakers also what the 49ers’ coaches are thinking.

    They’re more than happy to let Mahomes exploit one-on-one coverage against any of his wide receivers — only one of whom could be labeled above average — for the entire game. But they’re not about to let the world’s best quarterback and tight end hit the jackpot time and again in Las Vegas. 

    That’s why they will devise a plan to keep Kelce from running free up the seam, make sure his receptions happen within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, and swarm tackle.

    It’s the exact plan San Francisco used in Super Bowl 54. And it worked: Kelce had six receptions (on six targets) but for only 43 yards — the last time a playoff opponent held Kelce under 71 receiving yards.

    Chiefs vs 49ers Travis Kelce receiving yards
    Prediction UNDER 71.5
    Odds -110 at FanDuel

    Odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of February 11

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    Take a look at our list of the best sportsbook promos to discover additional offerings leading up to the Big Game.

    Are you ready to bet on the Super Bowl?

    Get yourself prepared for the big game by reading our Super Bowl articles. Take advantage of our expert insight and get set for Super Bowl Sunday.

    Where to bet on the Super Bowl

    Finding the right bets is one thing, but you also need to make sure you’re betting with the right sportsbook. Our team has comprehensively analyzed all the betting options to guarantee you get the best possible experience for the Big Game.

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