Kylian Mbappe: Can He Sprint to Golden Boot Victory?
Digging for Gold: Who Are the Top Scorer Dark Horses?
More than Just Goal Scoring: How Does Team Performance Impact the Golden Boot Race?
We’re at the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2024 and one of the most hotly debated is the race to be the top scorer, with the Euro 2024 Golden Boot odds illustrating that we can expect a hotly-fought contest in Germany this year.
Since the competition moved to featuring 24 teams in 2016, the top scorer has needed five or six goals to claim their crown. Antoine Griezmann bagged six on home turf eight years ago, before Cristiano Ronaldo took the honor with five last time out.
He is a third favorite in the Euro 2024 Top Scorer odds, behind market leaders Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane. With the veteran playing in the Saudi Pro League, the younger men will fancy their chances of outscoring Ronaldo thanks to their exploits in big European Leagues and the Champions League this season.
But many factors influence the destination of the European Championship Golden Boot. Here’s a rundown of what to consider and the key men to keep in mind.
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Euro Golden Boot latest
When it comes to goal scorers, England manager Gareth Southgate has an embarrassment of riches. As at the middle of April, there were 21 European players who had scored at least 14 goals in one of the continent’s top five leagues (England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain) this season.
Eight of them are English, including four of the top seven, and the group includes players like Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak and Ermedin Demirovic, whose countries failed to qualify. What makes England’s options so remarkable is that some of them may not even make the squad (Dominic Solanke) or play too much if they do (Jarrod Bowen, Cole Palmer and Ollie Watkins).
Harry Kane is the top scorer in the big leagues, England’s talisman, however, he is only the second favorite for the Golden Boot. Kylian Mbappe sits at the top and is tipped to win the Euro Golden Boot prize that will surely complement the same he got at the Qatar 2022 World Cup.
Kane’s successor as the World Cup Golden Boot holder is Kylian Mbappe. The Frenchman scored eight goals in Qatar, the most of any player at the tournament since Ronaldo Nazário hit that mark in 2002.
Mbappe had a miserable time at the last European Championships. He played all four games, failed to score, and missed the decisive penalty in the shootout loss to Switzerland. However, he scored nine goals in qualifying – the third most of any player – and this season, Paris Saint-Germain will break the 40-goal barrier for the third time.
France is the joint favorite alongside England in the outright market. If both win their groups, they will meet in the semi-final, so the Golden Boot battle may be settled in a match in Dortmund on July 10.
England is the joint favorite to win Euro 2024, so it is expected to play seven matches in Germany this summer. Its attacking patterns are designed to get the most out of Harry Kane, making him a worthy choice to lead the Euro 2024 Golden Boot betting.
The Three Lions scored 19 goals in qualifying (excluding own goals), with the Bayern Munich man responsible for eight of them. Aside from Bukayo Saka, who netted four times, nobody else from Gareth Southgate’s squad scored more than two.
Kane already has a major tournament Golden Boot from the 2018 World Cup, so has the track record required. With 2023/24 the highest scoring club season of his career, he will arrive at the European Championship in electric form.
Winning the Golden Boot award in his first Bundesliga season for Bayern, Harry Kane is the man in form for England at #Euro2024 🏴🔥 pic.twitter.com/yOyyDXdz5n
Cristiano Ronaldo is the current holder of the European Championship Golden Boot crown, and is the all-time top scorer in tournament history, with 14 goals. The 39-year-old was also one of only two players to hit double figures in qualifying for Euro 2024.
While Portugal is only the fifth favorite in the outright market, they should go far. A group of Czech Republic, Georgia and Turkey is not overly daunting, and the winner of Group F does not meet another section topper until the semi-final at the earliest. Ronaldo should get games and should get chances.
The question is whether a season in the Saudi Pro League is adequate preparation. Regardless of your view on that, the top international goal scorer in history is a worthy third favorite in the Euro 2024 top scorer betting.
Cristiano Ronaldo is always a player to watch and he proved it once again last night when he was really close to his record 15th goal at #Euro2024 🇵🇹 pic.twitter.com/7gI4nckiTo
Jude Bellingham is the most interesting name among the front runners in the Euro 2024 golden boot odds. There is no question the young England international is having a fantastic campaign and has taken La Liga by storm in his debut season with Real Madrid. While positional titles can be misleading due to tactical variation, Bellingham is the top scoring midfielder across Europe’s big five leagues in 2023/24.
But he has little pedigree as a goal scorer at international level. This is not to question his potential, rather to ask if Gareth Southgate’s tactics do enough to elicit goals from the 20-year-old?
History suggests five goals are needed to contend for the Golden Boot at the European Championship, but Bellingham scored three times in his first 29 appearances for the Three Lions. This may be a tournament too soon for his top scorer hopes.
Olivier Giroud (+10000 at FanDuel sportsbook)
It’s hard to make a serious case that France’s all-time record scorer can top the goal standings at Euro 2024. Olivier Giroud won the Bronze Boot at both the 2022 World Cup and at the European Championship on home turf six years earlier, but his goal grabbing abilities at this level have largely dried up.
Although the Milan forward had a decent campaign at club level and scored against Chile in a friendly in March, his three goals in qualifying for Euro 2024 came against minnows Gibraltar. It would not be a surprise if the 37-year-old made a vital contribution to France somewhere along the way, but it would be a shock if he got the goals required for the Golden Boot.
It would be foolish to ignore Romelu Lukaku, who, with 14 goals scored, bagged at least four more than every other player in qualifying. No team is a shorter price than Belgium to top their group, and if they finish first in Group E, they will then face a third-placed team from another group. Their potential run to the last eight couldn’t be much kinder.
It might have been three years since his last 20-goal league campaign, but Lukaku should break that mark in all competitions this season. He is one of the top 10 international goal scorers of all time and plays for the second-best nation in Europe, according to the FIFA ranking. At the price available, Lukaku is worth considering.
All-time Belgium top scorer Romelu Lukaku is always a threat. 😈 🇧🇪
Trends for the European Championships Golden Boot award are difficult to pinpoint simply because the format of the competition has changed many times.
The 2024 edition is only the third to feature 24 teams and a potential seven matches for the nations which reach the final. Even looking at the two previous examples provides no reliable pattern.
Antoine Griezmann won the Golden Boot at Euro 2016, with six goals. France reached the final, only to lose 1-0 to Portugal in extra time. Five of Griezmann’s strikes occurred in the knockout phase, with braces against Ireland and Germany doing much of the work.
But in Euro 2020, Cristiano Ronaldo was the leading scorer, with five, and did not find the net beyond the Group Stage. He also scored twice in separate matches, so it may be that doing that is the key to topping the goal-scorer standings.
Euro Golden Boot betting strategy
Aspects to consider when placing a Golden Boot bet include identifying teams that are expected to go deep into the tournament and which players are their penalty takers.
1. Analyze the groups
The winners of Groups B, C, E and F have an advantage as they will face a third-placed team in the Round of 16. The favorites in these sections are Spain, England, Belgium and Portugal respectively. Don’t discount hosts Germany in Group A though – at -250 to top the section, they are the joint-shortest priced team to win a group.
2. Teams likely to go the distance
There is a clear demarcation in the market between teams expected to reach the quarter-finals and those that don’t. England and France are outright joint favorites, followed by Germany, Spain, and Portugal, with the trio of Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands behind them.
Next come Croatia and Denmark, but their prices are two-and-a-half times those of the latter mentioned teams. The champion should come from the top eight in the winner market.
3. Penalty and free kick takers
Harry Kane was the top penalty goal scorer in qualifying, with four. In fact: with his spot kicks alone he’d be England’s joint-19th highest scorer of all time. Callum Wilson also converted one to give the Three Lions a total of five, two more than any other side that qualified (with France and Portugal scoring three).
Free-kick goals are far less common. Among players likely to play regularly at Euro 2024, Bruno Fernandes is the most frequent raker of free kicks.
4. Take advantage of odds boosts and betting promos
It’s important to find the best Euro 2024 top goalscorer odds to get the best value when placing your bet. Oddspedia compares and shows the best Euro 2024 betting odds in real time, collated from 30 bookmakers. Don’t forget to take advantage of betting promotions and boosted odds, too.
Euro Golden Boot winner prediction
The Euro 2024 top scorer odds project this as a two-horse race and it’s impossible to argue that it won’t be either Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe who bags the most goals in Germany this summer. They are the figureheads for the two best teams in the competition.
The main men for England and France even have an identical tally of goals at World Cups and European Championships, with 12 apiece. However, Mbappe’s have come from 18 appearances whereas Kane has earned 22 caps at these showpiece events.
Mbappe may also have more of a point to prove as he failed to score at Euro 2020. While his status is secure regardless, he may be fired up ahead of what looks like an inevitable move to Real Madrid. As the odds are slightly better, back Mbappe to win the Golden Boot.
Euro Golden Boot odds FAQs
Who is favorite to win the Euro Golden Boot 2024?
Kylian Mbappe of France is favorite to win the Euro Golden Boot 2024. England striker Harry Kane is second in the top scorer market, ahead of Portugal legend Cristiano Ronaldo. Kane’s teammate Jude Bellingham and Mbappe’s fellow French forward Olivier Giroud complete the top five in the top goalscorer Euro 2024 odds.
Who was Euro top scorer in 2020?
Two players tied for five goals at Euro 2020. Czech Republic’s Patrik Schick and Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo were the men in question, with the latter taking the Golden Boot thanks to also getting one assist. The quartet of Karim Benzema, Emil Forsberg, Harry Kane, and Romelu Lukaku were next in line with four goals each.
Who has won the most Euro Golden Boots?
No player has won more than one Euro Golden Boot, with Antoine Griezmann and Cristiano Ronaldo with a chance this summer of becoming the first to do so. The latter has come the closest by also taking the Silver Boot award for the second top scorer at Euro 2016. The top scorer in a single edition is Michel Platini, who scored nine times at Euro 1984.
Soccer offers a wealth of opportunities for sportsbooks, with the best sportsbooks in the US gearing up for Euro 2024. They’re set to entice with some of the finest sportsbook promos slated for 2024. Given the tournament’s condensed timeframe – 51 games across 22 matchdays – there’s ample chance to place your initial bet with a new sportsbook. You can leverage their tempting welcome offers by utilizing bonus bets on subsequent matches or by wagering on the overall Euro 2024 victor. With best sportsbook offers and stellar sportsbook promos, there’s much to anticipate for this upcoming soccer event.
Andrew has been a freelance soccer writer for over seven years, mostly covering the Premier League and UEFA Champions League. He has written betting previews and strategy guide articles for multiple outlets, as well as appearing on podcasts. As a stat head, he uses data to identify value in the market.
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