Value Bets 

What is Value bets - Value betting explained

Bets that hold an edge against a bookmaker or another user on a betting exchange are considered value bets. Value as a term is derived from the financial sector and has the same core meaning - as long as there is a selection identified with a lower probability than indicated to occur, also known as a positive value, then there is an opportunity to take advantage out of it.

What positive and negative expected value means?

Expected value or EV is the potential long-term fairness over the given situation. Positive +EV signals that long term positive results can be expected and negative -EV is the opposite. Or simply put, positive EV equals taking a good deal at the right time. The EV perspective is a great approach to gambling and especially sports betting and we naturally stick and call bets we perceive as +EV. 

What is the correlation between probability and odds?

Probability represents the likelihood of a certain event to happen and how likely the outcome is being shown in percentage. In sports betting, bookmaker personnel and traders assess this probability, which is then transformed into betting odds. Value betting situations will occur where the odds on an event from a bookmaker reflect a probability that is less than the actual probability of this outcome to occur.  

How is the value on a value bet calculated?

To calculate expected value let’s use a coin flip as an example. A coin toss has 50/50 chance to land on heads or tails, therefore the odds offered on a fair market should be 2.00/2.00, but there is a bookmaker which is offering heads priced at 2.20. The formula is as follows: 

(Potential Profit * Probability ) - (Potential Loss * Probability)

Our potential profit with a stake of 10$ on odds of 2.20 will be 12$. Our potential loss is 10$. We are quite sure the true probability of heads to land is at 50%. So using the formula, we measure our +EV at 1 : (12 * 0.5) - (10 * 0.5) = 1. To get overvalue percentage, the initial stake can be divided by our EV - in this case, 10% - which means that for each $10 dollar bet we will make an average of 1$ because the probability given by the odds was lower than the implied probability of the coin flip. 

Value bets tips - How to identify good betting opportunities

In betting finding positive value plays a critical role in long term success. It is one of the fundamental concepts in sports betting, and naturally, you would place bets only where you see a positive expected value between the probabilities you calculate and the odds provided by bookmakers. 

Here are ten tips to be able to successfully extract positive value from your bets:

1.  Be able to calculate probabilities and convert odds on the fly. 
2.  Have a deep understanding and experience in the sport you are betting on. 
3.  Time and place your bets before lines start moving
4.  Analyze the difference between the odds and your perceived probability of an outcome
5.  Watch out for recent news or announcements that may affect the outcome of a game 
6.  Look at statistics and beyond to before you settle on a bet
7.  It’s more frequent to find overvalue on the underdogs, even with less hit rate
8.  Don’t be afraid to go against the public consensus
9.  Value betting comes through in the long term, short term bad streaks can happen
10.  Use your EV calculations to correspond to the Unit amount wagered on your bets..

But you don’t have to worry at all because Oddspedia has you covered as well with the value bets betting tool found on this page. You will be able to easily and reliably find value bets across multiple sports. Read below more about our tool.

Oddspedia Value Bet Finder - How to use

Value bets tool display bets that have odds with implied probability value higher than the real probability of it happening. Those bets are calculated based on a comparison between bookmaker's market odds with total average odds. Oddspedia overvalue algorithm takes into account various factors and collects data simultaneously from at least several bookmakers. Betting with value included in the bets will statistically lead to long-term profits.

• The "Odds" column features best betting odds available.
• The "Probability" column shows the statistical likelihood to win the bet.
• The "Overvalue" mathematically estimates the added value advantage between the odd and the real probability of this outcome.

Whilst our effort to keep value bets information precise, we take no responsibility for any data inaccuracy. You might also like to check other Sure Wins situations via Oddspedia Sure bets tool.