Defensor - Penarol Predictions
Defensor Sporting
5 days
15th Nov 26, 6:00 PM
18°
CA Penarol
Winner probabilities
1x2: Away
-137
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Double Chance: Defensor Sporting or Draw
Confidence Rating
Best odds
+120
Defensor Sporting has shown resilience despite a difficult recent form, with their last five matches yielding just one win. Conversely, CA Penarol's five-game streak features four draws, pointing to an inability to secure victories. Historical head-to-head statistics also favour Defensor Sporting, asserting their capability to at least avoid defeat. With both teams struggling for consistency, a bet on "Double Chance: 1X" not only provides a solid safety net, but reflects value given the probability derived from our computer model. Considering these factors, this bet is an appealing choice that aligns well with both statistical insights and current form.
Oddspedia Model Probability
55.3%
Betting Odds Probability @+125
44.44% 24.44% Bet value
Defensor Sporting has shown resilience despite a difficult recent form, with their last five matches yielding just one win. Conversely, CA Penarol's five-game streak features four draws, pointing to an inability to secure victories. Historical head-to-head statistics also favour Defensor Sporting, asserting their capability to at least avoid defeat. With both teams struggling for consistency, a bet on "Double Chance: 1X" not only provides a solid safety net, but reflects value given the probability derived from our computer model. Considering these factors, this bet is an appealing choice that aligns well with both statistical insights and current form.
Oddspedia Model Probability
55.3%
Betting Odds Probability @+125
44.44%
24.44%
Bet value
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Total Goals: Under 2.5
Confidence Rating
Best odds
-111
Given the recent form of both teams, the prediction for total goals in the Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol match leans strongly towards under 2.5. Defensor has struggled to find the net consistently, managing just one win in their last five matches. Similarly, Penarol has also faced goal-scoring issues, with a string of draws highlighting their lack of offensive firepower. Historical head-to-head data supports this outlook, with over 2.5 goals only occurring in 57% of their previous encounters. With both teams demonstrating a tendency to grind out low-scoring games, backing under 2.5 goals presents a compelling opportunity for bettors.
Oddspedia Model Probability
59.12%
Betting Odds Probability @-111
52.63% 12.33% Bet value
Given the recent form of both teams, the prediction for total goals in the Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol match leans strongly towards under 2.5. Defensor has struggled to find the net consistently, managing just one win in their last five matches. Similarly, Penarol has also faced goal-scoring issues, with a string of draws highlighting their lack of offensive firepower. Historical head-to-head data supports this outlook, with over 2.5 goals only occurring in 57% of their previous encounters. With both teams demonstrating a tendency to grind out low-scoring games, backing under 2.5 goals presents a compelling opportunity for bettors.
Oddspedia Model Probability
59.12%
Betting Odds Probability @-111
52.63%
12.33%
Bet value
Total Goals: Under 3.5
Confidence Rating
Best odds
-300
The upcoming clash between Defensor Sporting and CA Penarol promises to be a tightly contested affair, making the prediction for Total Goals: Under 3.5 a solid choice. Observing the teams' recent form, both sides have struggled offensively, with a combined tally of just one win in their last ten matches. Historical data further backs this prediction, as their previous matchups have frequently resulted in low-scoring games—especially given that only 22% of their past encounters exceeded 3.5 goals. With both defenses geared up to avoid conceding, this match is poised for a tactical battle that should keep the scoreline down.
Oddspedia Model Probability
79.14%
Betting Odds Probability @-303
75.02% 5.49% Bet value
The upcoming clash between Defensor Sporting and CA Penarol promises to be a tightly contested affair, making the prediction for Total Goals: Under 3.5 a solid choice. Observing the teams' recent form, both sides have struggled offensively, with a combined tally of just one win in their last ten matches. Historical data further backs this prediction, as their previous matchups have frequently resulted in low-scoring games—especially given that only 22% of their past encounters exceeded 3.5 goals. With both defenses geared up to avoid conceding, this match is poised for a tactical battle that should keep the scoreline down.
Oddspedia Model Probability
79.14%
Betting Odds Probability @-303
75.02%
5.49%
Bet value
Match Probabilities
Winner probabilities
DEF
PEN
26%
Home
30%
Draw
45%
Away
Correct Score probabilities
>3
3
2
1
0
1.5%
0.3%
1.4%
2.0%
1.3%
0.8%
4.4%
6.1%
4.8%
1.8%
8.9%
13.3%
8.5%
3.8%
10.6%
12.9%
9.1%
4.0%
4.6%
0
1
2
3
>3
Correct Score:
1-1
+650
Betting Trends
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Betting stats
DEF
Played 39
PEN
Played 47
36%
ATS %
40%
31%
Totals Covered %
40%
90%
Matches over 0.5 goals
94%
62%
Matches over 1.5 goals
72%
31%
Matches over 2.5 goals
38%
15%
Matches over 3.5 goals
17%
10%
Matches over 4.5 goals
4%
31%
Over HT1.5 goals at half time %
23%
18%
Scored in both halves
19%
15%
Conceded in both halves
9%
Last Matches
L
L
L
D
W
?
D
L
D
L
D
?
Head To Head
4
Wins
3
Draws
16
Wins
23 played
24 May 2026
Final
0
2
04 May 2026
Final
1
1
02 Nov 2025
Final
2
1
Standings
Primera Division , Apertura
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
| 
Racing Club Montevideo
|
15
|
9
|
4
|
2
|
23:14
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
31
| |
2
| 
Deportivo Maldonado
|
15
|
9
|
2
|
4
|
24:16
|
W
D
L
W
W
?
|
29
| |
3
| 
Albion FC
|
15
|
8
|
4
|
3
|
26:16
|
W
W
W
W
W
?
|
28
| |
4
|
CA Penarol
|
15
|
8
|
3
|
4
|
23:16
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
27
| |
5
| 
Central Espanol
|
15
|
7
|
3
|
5
|
23:22
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
24
| |
6
| 
Torque
|
15
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
22:16
|
L
D
W
D
W
?
|
23
| |
7
| 
Nacional De Football
|
15
|
7
|
1
|
7
|
26:21
|
L
W
L
L
W
?
|
22
| |
8
|
Defensor Sporting
|
15
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
13:11
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
21
| |
9
| 
Liverpool Montevideo
|
15
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
20:18
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
20
| |
10
| 
Montevideo Wanderers
|
15
|
6
|
2
|
7
|
16:21
|
L
L
W
L
W
?
|
20
| |
11
| 
Danubio
|
15
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
17:21
|
D
D
W
L
L
?
|
18
| |
12
| 
Cerro Largo
|
15
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
16:19
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
17
| |
13
| 
Boston River
|
15
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
14:20
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
17
| |
14
| 
CA Juventud
|
15
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
17:22
|
W
D
D
W
W
?
|
15
| |
15
| 
Club Atletico Progreso
|
15
|
2
|
4
|
9
|
12:23
|
L
W
L
L
L
?
|
10
| |
16
| 
CA Cerro
|
15
|
2
|
4
|
9
|
8:24
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
10
| |
Primera Division , Clausura
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Liverpool Montevideo
|
13
|
9
|
3
|
1
|
22:8
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
30
| |
2
|
Torque
|
13
|
9
|
1
|
3
|
26:14
|
L
D
W
D
W
?
|
28
| |
3
|
Nacional De Football
|
13
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
19:13
|
L
W
L
L
W
?
|
26
| |
4
|
Deportivo Maldonado
|
13
|
6
|
4
|
3
|
18:10
|
W
D
L
W
W
?
|
22
| |
5
|
CA Penarol
|
13
|
6
|
5
|
2
|
17:9
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
22
| |
6
|
Racing Club Montevideo
|
13
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
18:14
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
19
| |
7
|
Club Atletico Progreso
|
13
|
6
|
1
|
6
|
13:15
|
L
W
L
L
L
?
|
19
| |
8
|
CA Juventud
|
13
|
4
|
6
|
3
|
12:10
|
W
D
D
W
W
?
|
18
| |
9
|
CA Cerro
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
15:19
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
18
| |
10
|
Montevideo Wanderers
|
13
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
14:19
|
L
L
W
L
W
?
|
16
| |
11
|
Boston River
|
13
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
15:17
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
15
| |
12
|
Albion FC
|
13
|
4
|
1
|
8
|
15:20
|
W
W
W
W
W
?
|
13
| |
13
|
Defensor Sporting
|
13
|
3
|
3
|
7
|
16:23
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
12
| |
14
|
Danubio
|
13
|
2
|
4
|
7
|
7:15
|
D
D
W
L
L
?
|
10
| |
15
|
Cerro Largo
|
13
|
1
|
6
|
6
|
10:17
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
9
| |
16
|
Central Espanol
|
13
|
2
|
2
|
9
|
8:22
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
8
| |
Primera Division , Overall
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
CA Penarol
|
35
|
19
|
9
|
7
|
52:28
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
65
| |
2
|
Deportivo Maldonado
|
35
|
18
|
9
|
8
|
54:32
|
W
D
L
W
W
?
|
63
| |
3
|
Torque
|
35
|
19
|
6
|
10
|
59:41
|
L
D
W
D
W
?
|
63
| |
4
|
Nacional De Football
|
35
|
19
|
4
|
12
|
53:42
|
L
W
L
L
W
?
|
61
| |
5
|
Racing Club Montevideo
|
35
|
16
|
12
|
7
|
45:31
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
60
| |
6
|
Liverpool Montevideo
|
35
|
16
|
11
|
8
|
47:31
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
59
| |
7
|
Montevideo Wanderers
|
35
|
14
|
9
|
12
|
42:44
|
L
L
W
L
W
?
|
51
| |
8
|
Albion FC
|
35
|
13
|
8
|
14
|
47:44
|
W
W
W
W
W
?
|
47
| |
9
|
CA Juventud
|
35
|
10
|
11
|
14
|
37:43
|
W
D
D
W
W
?
|
41
| |
10
|
Central Espanol
|
35
|
11
|
8
|
16
|
35:48
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
41
| |
11
|
Defensor Sporting
|
35
|
9
|
12
|
14
|
35:43
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
39
| |
12
|
Cerro Largo
|
35
|
9
|
10
|
16
|
33:41
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
37
| |
13
|
Boston River
|
35
|
10
|
7
|
18
|
34:47
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
37
| |
14
|
CA Cerro
|
35
|
10
|
7
|
18
|
29:53
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
37
| |
15
|
Club Atletico Progreso
|
35
|
10
|
5
|
20
|
31:49
|
L
W
L
L
L
?
|
35
| |
16
|
Danubio
|
35
|
6
|
14
|
15
|
29:45
|
D
D
W
L
L
?
|
32
| |
Primera Division , Torneo Intermedio, Group A
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
CA Penarol
|
7
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
12:3
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
16
| |
2
|
Cerro Largo
|
7
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
7:5
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
11
| |
3
|
Racing Club Montevideo
|
7
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
4:3
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
10
| |
4
|
Liverpool Montevideo
|
7
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
5:5
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
9
| |
5
|
Central Espanol
|
7
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
4:4
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
9
| |
6
|
CA Cerro
|
7
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
6:10
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
9
| |
7
|
Defensor Sporting
|
7
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
6:9
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
6
| |
8
|
Boston River
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
5:10
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
5
| |
Possible Lineups
Confirmed 1h before kick-off
Defensor Sporting
Kevin Dawson
Goalkeeper
Guillermo De los Santos
Defender
Axel Frugone
Defender
Francisco Sorondo
Defender
Nicolas Wunsch
Midfielder
German Barrios
Midfielder
Lucas Agazzi
Midfielder
Geanfranco Rodriguez
Midfielder
Lorenzo Cafaro
Midfielder
Lautaro Navarro
Forward
Alan Torterolo
Forward
Defensor Sporting
No missing players for Defensor Sporting
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Match Details
Referee
-
Stadium
Estadio Luis Franzini
Location
Montevideo, Uruguay
Weather Forecast
18°.
