What are Value bets
Value bets arise when the implied odds don't match the actual probability of an outcome. They can give you an edge over the sportsbook as you will have higher chances of winning than the listed odds.
You can take the example of a coin toss. Since heads and tails have equal odds of 2.00, you will get a value bet if a betting site offers betting odds of 2.10.
Positive and negative expected values
The expected value measures what you can expect to win or lose if you place bets on the same odds multiple times. Positive expected value bets will give you profits in the long run, while negative expected value bets imply a net loss over time. Checking the expected value is a simple way for bettors to identify more value bets.
What is the correlation between probability and odds?
Online bookmakers set odds based on the probability of an outcome which can be presented in different formats, including percentages and decimal odds. If the probability is higher than the implied odds of the bookmaker, you will have an edge over the sportsbook. It is important to avoid markets that have a negative expected value as these will likely result in losses in the long term.
How to calculate a value bet
To calculate a value bet, you should start by calculating the implied probability of a certain outcome. For example, with a coin toss, the true probability of the outcomes is 2.00 for heads and 2.00 for tails. If a sportsbook offers odds of more than 2.00, then you can calculate the value of the bet with the following formula:
- (Potential Profit X Probability ) - (Potential Loss X Probability)
If a bookmaker offers odds of 2.20, your potential profit on a $10 wager will be $12. The same wager has a potential loss of $10. Since each outcome in the coin toss has a probability of 0.5, you can calculate the value as follows:
- (12X0.5)-(10X0.5)= 1
You can get the overvaluation percentage by dividing the initial wager by the expected value. In this case, you will divide 10 by 1, giving an overvaluation percentage of 10%. This implies that the average ROI for every $10 wagered is $1.
Find the Best Value Bets Today
A simple way to find the best value bets is to use the tools on Oddspedia. The website lists all value bets of the day, as well as the overvalue percentage. You can click the button labeled 'Bet Now' under the value bets, and Oddspedia will automatically redirect you to the betting site.
Value Bets Tips - How to identify good betting opportunities
Finding value bets is one of the most important skills of expert online sports bettors. You should only place bets when you identify a positive expected value as this increases your chances of making money in the long run.
It is advisable to specialize in a handful of sports and leagues, especially if you haven't been applying the value betting strategy for a long time. This allows you to develop a sense of value as you will be able to gauge the probability of certain events happening.
You should also learn how to set your own odds, after which you can make comparisons with the average odds on multiple bookmakers. This is a skill you have to develop over time. It is important to note that you will be playing the role of the bookmaker in this case, and you should not feel comfortable placing bets with those odds.
In sports betting, information is power, so you should watch out for any news that may affect the probability of certain events. You can follow sports news on Oddspedia and use the details to create your own odds for the matches.
Another tip you should remember is to place bets before the lines start moving.
How to Use the Oddspedia Value Bet Finder to Increase your Profits
To increase your profits from sports betting, you can use the value bets finder on Oddspedia. It uses an algorithm that calculates the actual probability, and it then lists sportsbooks that offer great prices in comparison to the probability. You can sort the value bets by the starting time or based on the time they were added to Oddspedia.
To make sure you get the value bets before the lines move, you should turn on the auto-refresh feature of the website. This can refresh the page every 15 seconds, 30 seconds, 60 seconds, or 120 seconds.
Once you identify a great value betting opportunity, you can click the 'Bet Now' button and get redirected to the sportsbook. If there are many value bets for the day, you should filter the results by the sport, betting market, overvalue percentage, and odds range.
