The blockbusters of 2025 have now finished their run in theaters, with no film since *Lilo and Stitch* hitting the $1 billion mark.
So, which major movie will be next to break $1bn at the box office?
We’ve studied the four best candidates and their odds of breaking the blockbuster barrier.
“While this film has a near-certain chance of reaching $1 billion, it's not likely to be the next one to do so…”
While bookmakers will offer odds on almost anything, from betting on the next Pope to the Nobel Peace Prize odds, this market hasn’t opened with any of the best sportsbooks.
However, we can apply the thinking behind odds creation to see how some interesting markets around the festival could be produced.
As an expert in niche and novelty betting, I’ve formulated the odds for one of the biggest questions in popular culture today. The odds displayed are purely speculative and intended for entertainment purposes only.
| Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked: For Good | -320 | 76.2% |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | +350 | 22.2% |
| Jurassic World Rebirth | +800 | 11.1% |
| Superman | +1100 | 8.3% |
Wicked: For Good is the second part of a two-part film adaptation. Its chances are directly tied to the performance of the first movie, Wicked, which had a very strong run but ultimately came up short of $1 billion at $756 million.
A key factor will be whether audiences return for the second installment in even greater numbers. I gathered the data on ten of the top performing films of all time to have sequels and, on average, the sequel saw a +27.8% increase in revenue over the first film
If Wicked: For Good can match that pace: it will just break the $1 billion barrier.
While this film has a near-certain chance of reaching $1 billion, it’s not likely to be the next one to do so simply because it is still four months away. Films already in theaters or releasing earlier will obviously have a huge head start.
For Avatar: Fire and Ash to be the next to cross the line, other potential film currently in release would have to stall.
With a current global gross of over $868 million, Jurassic World Rebirth is very close to the billion-dollar mark. The film is still in its theatrical run, and while its momentum is slowing, it is a virtual lock to earn the remaining amount needed.
The franchise has a huge global audience, and the new chapter has proven to be a major draw.
While a strong start for the new DC Universe, Superman has a long way to go to reach the $1 billion mark. Its current box office trajectory suggests it will likely finish somewhere in the $600-$700 million range.
The film would need exceptional and sustained box office legs, especially in international markets, to make up the difference. While it’s not impossible, it’s highly improbable given its current run and the announcement of its digital release just over one month after its theatrical release.
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