PGA Championship Projected Cut Line 2025: Lot of Favorites Are Struggling

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Tiago Carvalho
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With another PGA Tour event on deck, some of the world’s best golfers are taking their talents to Quail Hollow Club, where we’re sure they’ll have fits with the PGA Championship cut line. Scottie Scheffler finds himself at the top of the PGA Championship odds, but could you imagine if he was to miss the cut? The golf world would go berserk. We have a feeling that some favorites will miss the cut, which is why we’re confident in the PGA Championship sleeper picks.

Data Golf is projecting that there’s a 67.7% chance that the PGA Championship cut line will settle at +1 and a 32.3% chance it finishes at +2. If it does indeed set at +1, Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, and Xander Schauffele are all in danger of going home early:

Player Total
Jake Knapp +2
Jordan Spieth +2
Tom Hoge +2
Justin Thomas +3
Ludvig Aberg +3
Hideki Matsuyama +3
Xander Schauffele +3
Patrick Reed +4
Matt McCarty +4
Gary Woodland +4
Sungjae Im +5
Phil Mickelson +5
Thomas Detry +5
Patrick Cantlay +5
Min Woo Lee +5
Lee Hodges +5
Nick Dunlap +5
Will Zalatoris +6
Nick Taylor +6
Cameron Smith +7
Brooks Koepka +8
Mackenzie Hughes +9
Justin Rose +9
Russell Henley +10
Adam Hadwin +11
Dustin Johnson +12

If you’re considering placing a bet on the PGA Championship, doing some research can significantly enhance your chances of winning. Begin by examining the course layout, as understanding the difficult areas can help you identify which players might face challenges, especially if they’ve struggled on comparable courses in the past. Additionally, take note of how players have been performing recently. Their current form, whether they’re experiencing a winning streak or starting to slow down, should certainly play a role in your betting choices. And don’t forget about the weather, as we all know it can greatly impact player performance, so be to keep that in mind.

Keep checking back as we update the article with odds of who will make/miss the 2025 PGA Championship cut line.

Credit: Kim Soo-Hyeon/Reuters via Imagn Images

PGA Championship projected cut line latest

As with any bet, you’ll likely want to monitor your PGA Championship cut line wager. We rely on a few sources, such as the PGA Tour and Data Golf. While the PGA Tour offers helpful updates, we’ve found that their information can occasionally be inaccurate. That’s why our go to is Data Golf, as they provide reliable probabilities, and often pinpoint the cut line with precision.

Betting on the PGA Championship cut line

Remaining above the PGA Championship cut line is essential to make it to the weekend rounds. That effectively determines which players get to participate in Rounds 3 and 4. Surviving past that threshold is significant—it’s a vital step toward claiming victory in the tournament. Each player is striving to stay above that cut line to maintain their opportunity to compete and earn some prize money.

That pressure drives players to give their best effort in securing a place in the weekend rounds, creating an exciting dynamic within the tournament. While it presents its own challenges, that cut line also acts as a powerful motivator for players to showcase their talents in front of the fans and spectators.

Odds to make the cut

Player Odds
Rory McIlroy -1450
Bryson DeChambeau -1000
Jon Rahm -700
Xander Schauffele -460
Collin Morikawa -460
Justin Thomas -460
Ludvig Aberg -430
Joaquin Niemann -360
Tommy Fleetwood -360
Patrick Cantlay -310

Odds to miss the cut

Player Odds
Sami Valimaki -130
Phil Mickelson -126
Tom Hoge -122
Harry Hall -122
Matt McCarthy -122
Eugenio Chacarra -122
Austin Eckroat -122
Erik van Rooyen -122
Laurie Canter -122
Jake Knapp -122

Odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of May 14

PGA Championship cut rule

In the PGA Championship, players must reach the cut line after Round 2 in order to progress in the tournament. This line determines who continues in the competition and who is eliminated. Players who finish in the top 70 (including ties) advance to the subsequent rounds, while those who fail to make the cut will regrettably have to exit the event.

The cut line serves as a standard established by the PGA Tour to assess player performance. It ensures that only the top-performing golfers advance to the final stages of the tournament. This intensifies the competition and heightens the excitement for both the players and the spectators.

Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Current Favorites to win the PGA Championship

Player Odds
Scottie Scheffler +330
Bryson DeChambeau +1200
Tyrrell Hatton +1400
Jhonattan Vegas +1800
Jon Rahm +1800
Ludvig Aberg +2200
Collin Morikawa +2200
Viktor Hovland +2500
Aaron Rai +2500
Cam Davis +2800

Odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of May 16

PGA Championship cut line history

The PGA Championship cut line hasn’t seen too much variation over the past few years, as players saw a cut line of +5 twice, along with a cut line of +4. As we mentioned above, last year’s cut line was set at -1, while way back in 2020 it settled at +1, so it’ll be interesting to see where the 2025 PGA Championship cut line will settle:

Year Cut line
2024 -1
2023 +5
2022 +4
2021 +5
2020 +1

PGA Championship projected cut line FAQs

How is the cut line determined for the PGA Championship?

For players to advance to Round 3 of the PGA Championship, they need to finish in the top 70 or have scores tied with those above the cut line. If they fail to achieve these criteria, they will be eliminated from the tournament and unable to compete in Rounds 3 and 4. This system ensures that only the highest-performing golfers remain in the competition, while those who do not meet the required standards are removed.

What does it mean to make the cut in golf?

Reaching above the cut line is essential in golf tournaments, as it enables players to advance to the next rounds and compete for cash prizes, intensifying the competitive atmosphere. Achieving this goal maintains a robust field and provides players with opportunities for rewards in the later stages. Successfully surpassing the cut line empowers golfers to pursue victories and financial benefits, contributing to the excitement surrounding the sport.

Do you get paid if you miss the cut at the PGA Championship?

Failing to make the PGA Championship cut line results in players losing the opportunity to compete for cash prizes. A golfer’s earnings are linked to their performance across all four tournament rounds. Being eliminated from the competition by not meeting the cut line prevents them from vying for a portion of the prize pool, which can have a considerable impact on their financial outcomes.

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