2026 U.S. Open Sleeper Picks & Predictions: 5 Underdogs with Winning Value

As the world’s best golfers head to New York for the third major championship of the season, there are plenty of players to like in the U.S. Open odds. Shinnecock Hills Golf Club plays host to the event for the sixth time in the tournament’s 126-year history, and over the course of time it has been a challenging place to shoot low scores at.

As usual, Scottie Scheffler headlines the field in the 2026 U.S. Open odds, but there are many big names to keep an eye on in the U.S. Open sleeper picks and U.S. Open value bets that should enable you to find plenty of options to bet on.

While the event is typically won by a top-ranked golfer, remember that J.J. Spaun won last year and that over the course of the event, other longshots have also lifted the trophy upon the tournament’s completion.

2026 U.S. Open Sleeper Picks to Outperform the Odds

While top favorites dominate the headlines, Shinnecock’s grueling layout opens the door for underdogs. Spotting a U.S. Open sleeper pick with elite creative scrambling skills is the best strategy to uncover massive value early.

Top U.S. Open Sleepers

Facing a punishing, wind-exposed links setup on Long Island, the field is ripe for a chaotic leaderboard. This unforgiving environment offers the perfect chance to back a 2026 U.S. Open sleeper pick at lucrative, longshot odds.

Ben Griffin | +5000 ▲ +15000 at FanDuel

When looking at how Shinnecock Hills Golf Club plays, two major factors will be of utmost importance when finding the winner of the 126th U.S. Open.

Tee-to-green play and a golfer’s ability to perform around the green will be on full display when the golfers attack the course, and Ben Griffin lines up as one of the best short game players in the world. The three-time PGA Tour winner sits ninth on tour in strokes gained around-the-green as well as 84th in strokes gained tee-to-green stats.

Making his second appearance at the event, the 30-year-old finished a very impressive tie for 10th in his debut at the tournament in 2025. Sitting 14th in the official golf world rankings, the North Carolina native has finished tied for 14th or better in three of his last five majors. He’s a bit off the pace through two rounds, sitting at +2, but with a strong round Saturday – and poor rounds by some of the leaders – he could put himself back in contention.

Tom Kim | +8000 🔻+2200 at DraftKings

Tom Kim at +2200 stands out as one of the better value plays in the U.S. Open sleeper picks market, especially given his talent profile and proven ability to contend in major fields. He’s currently tied for second through two rounds, showing the kind of ball-striking and short-game control that translates well to brutal setups like Shinnecock Hills.

While recent form hasn’t quite matched his early-career highs, this looks like a classic buy-low spot on a player of his quality. If he maintains even average weekend putting, a serious charge remains firmly on the table at this price.

Justin Thomas | +2700 at FanDuel

Justin Thomas isn’t the traditional profile for U.S. Open sleeper picks, but his +2700 odds through two rounds present strong timely value given how his season has quietly stabilized. After a stretch of inconsistency, he’s shown clearer form in recent weeks with multiple top-15 finishes and at least one strong contending result that hinted at a return to elite ball-striking.

At Shinnecock, where precision and patience matter more than flash, Thomas’s profile fits better than the market suggests. Sitting just six shots off the lead with two rounds to play is far from insurmountable on a course this demanding, making him a live and underrated weekend threat at this price.

Ludvig Aberg | +5200 at DraftKings

Ludvig Åberg at +5200 remains firmly in the mix for U.S. Open sleeper picks, even if the number reflects a slightly uneven recent stretch. The young Swede has already shown he can handle major championship pressure with elite ball-striking and calm decision-making, traits that play well at a demanding setup like Shinnecock Hills.

While he hasn’t fully recaptured his early-season peak form, the underlying numbers still point to a player capable of contending when everything clicks. Sitting within striking distance at just a few shots back through two rounds, Åberg’s ceiling is high enough that a weekend surge wouldn’t be surprising at all at this price.

⛳ 2026 U.S. Open Odds

Odds provided by FanDuel & DraftKings – accurate as of June 20

Why There is Value in U.S. Open Sleeper Picks

When Spaun won in 2025, he entered the U.S. Open at +15000 odds, cashing in a huge payday for those who backed the American before the event’s opening tee time.

Angel Cabrera and Wyndham Clark are also two players who won the event in recent years with very long odds, proving that not just favorites win the U.S. Open.

Both of them were listed at +10000 when they won the tournament: Cabrera in 2007 and Clark in 2023.

With Shinnecock Hills being a difficult course to play no matter how seasoned a player may be, this could be an ideal time for another longshot to come busting through the gate as a 2026 U.S. Open sleeper pick to once again shock the golfing world.

Best Sportsbooks for Golf Betting

Maximizing your betting edge during the PGA Tour season requires utilizing the best sportsbooks that deliver comprehensive, sport-specific coverage. When the year’s major championships arrive, culminating in the ultimate test at the 2026 U.S. Open, top-tier operators stand out by expanding their wagering menus far beyond standard outright winners to include specialized placement markets, head-to-head tournament matchups, and other betting options.

To protect your bankroll when backing longshots on demanding championship tracks, it is very important to shop around for the best sportsbook promos. Savvy bettors actively seek out sportsbooks offering enhanced place terms, such as paying out on Each-Way bets down to the top 8, 10, or 12 finishing positions, which provides a vital cushion when targeting U.S. Open sleepers.

Whether your betting strategy relies on tracking live, shot-by-shot metrics for in-play wagering or capitalizing on daily odds boosts on the game’s top players, best sportsbooks ensure you secure top-market pricing. If you are new to wagering on the PGA Tour or want to refine your approach, explore our expert breakdown on how to bet on golf to build a winning strategy.

U.S. Open Sleeper Picks and Prediction FAQs

Who is the best sleeper pick to win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Tom Kim (+2200) stands out to us due to his amazing tee-to-green precision and ability to avoid big numbers on difficult tracks. For a deeper longshot, Ben Griffin (+15000) offers immense value with the driving distance and precision play needed to conquer Shinnecock’s challenging layout.

Can a longshot win the U.S. Open?

While this major famously tests the world’s best golfers, underdogs who can handle extreme pressure repeatedly rise to the occasion. Look no further than last year at Oakmont, where J.J. Spaun shocked the golf world by lifting the trophy at massive odds.

Why is ball-striking more important than putting at Shinnecock Hills?

William Flynn’s severe, inverted green complexes mean that imprecise approach shots will easily roll off into deep collection areas. If a player cannot control their trajectory in the heavy coastal breeze, they will be left with virtually impossible short-game recoveries.

Has a debutant ever won the U.S. Open?

It is very rare, with legendary amateur Francis Ouimet being one of the only players to accomplish it over a century ago. However, because the USGA rotates courses annually, a blank slate completely neutralizes the institutional venue knowledge held by seasoned veterans.

What are the best stats to look for in a U.S. Open sleeper pick?

Prioritize Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee to find players who blend raw distance with driving accuracy to survive the penalizing rough. Additionally, elite scrambling metrics and high rankings in bogey avoidance are essential for weathering the inevitable missed greens.