Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction: Can Roma stay unbeaten in Serie A?
The match between Roma and Sassuolo is likely to see fewer than 3.5 total goals. Roma has shown a solid form recently, winning four of their last five matches, emphasizing their defensive solidity. On the other hand, Sassuolo has struggled tremendously, failing to secure a win in their last five outings. Historically, their encounters lean towards lower-scoring affairs, with only 40% of their head-to-head matches surpassing 3.5 goals. This suggests that both teams may find it challenging to break the deadlock significantly. Given these factors, betting on "Under 3.5 goals" emerges as a sound strategy worth considering for this matchup.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Roma vs Sassuolo. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Roma vs Sassuolo is played on 2026-11-07 in Serie A (Round 11), with kick-off at 19:45 UTC. Our computer model lands on Total Goals: Under 3.5 with a 5-star confidence rating. It prices the bet at 63.40%, while the odds imply 58.41%, so there is 8.54% positive expected value. That’s solid value for a line set at 3.5. Roma are strong at home, yet Sassuolo can still nick a goal late. Will Roma manage the game once ahead?
Prematch Probabilities
SmartBet forecast correct: Home Winner
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The community is pretty clear here. The top consensus tip is Full Time Result: Roma, backed by 21 of 30 users at odds of 1.36. That fits the table too, with Roma on 24 points and Sassuolo down on 8. Roma have also won the last meeting 2-0 and took six wins from the last 12 home meetings. The big question is simple: do you trust the short price, or would you rather look at a handicap for a better return?
Consensus
8
Community Tips
150
Roma form analysis: Home strength, late punch
Roma sit 1st-pace form wise, with 24 points from 10 matches and still unbeaten (7 wins, 3 draws). Their last five reads WDWWL, so the level is high even with a recent slip. At home they are 4-1-0, and they have won three straight at the Olimpico. Donyell Malen is the main threat with 8 goals in 9 matches, and Roma have scored in six straight games. Versus Sassuolo, Roma have 8 wins in the last nine years and won the last match 2-0. Can they start fast again?
Sassuolo form analysis: Away worries, goals conceded
Sassuolo are down in 17th with 8 points from 10 matches, and the recent form is rough: DLLLL. They have lost four in a row in Serie A and have not won in six matches overall. Away from home it gets worse, with a 0-1-4 record and three straight away losses. They have also failed to win any of their last 13 away matches. The attack has been patchy, with Sebastiano Esposito on 2 goals and Adzic on 1, while they have conceded in 11 straight games. Can they stay tight for long enough?
Roma vs Sassuolo odds: Roma favoured, goals line interesting
Bookmakers make Roma clear favourites at 1.36, with the Draw at 6.10 and Sassuolo at 8.90. That pricing points to a strong home-win expectation. On the Asian Handicap, Roma -1.5 is 1.91, which hints at a possible two-goal margin if Roma click. The Total Goals 3.5 line is close, with Over 3.5 at 2.03 and Under 3.5 at 1.91. So the market slightly leans to fewer than four goals.
Roma vs Sassuolo predicted line-ups: Shapes and key threats
Roma are tipped to line up 3-4-3 under Gian Piero Gasperini, with Devis Vasquez in goal and a back three of Mancini, Balerdi, and Hermoso. The wing roles look key, with Rensch and Wesley Franca asked to push on, while Cristante and De Roon anchor midfield. Up front, the pace comes from Rodrigo Mora, Donyell Malen, and Matias Soulé, and Malen’s 8 league goals make him the headline. Sassuolo are set for a 4-3-3 with Turati in goal, Berardi wide, and Esposito central, plus Laurienté offering direct running. Will Sassuolo’s front three get enough service away from home?
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3
|
Roma
|
11
|
8
|
3
|
0
|
31:10
|
W
D
W
W
W
?
|
27
| |
17
|
Sassuolo
|
11
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
16:29
|
L
L
L
L
L
?
|
8
| |
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FAQ Roma vs Sassuolo
Who will win between Roma and Sassuolo?
Roma are the stronger pick. They are unbeaten after 10 matches and have a 4-1-0 home record. Sassuolo are 0-1-4 away and on a four-match losing run. The odds also heavily favour Roma at 1.36.
What is the best bet for Roma and Sassuolo?
The model’s best angle is Total Goals: Under 3.5 at 1.91. It rates the chance at 63.40% versus 58.41% implied by odds. That creates an 8.54% positive expected value, which is why it stands out.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction. It simulates match outcomes and converts them into probabilities for betting markets. When the model probability is higher than the odds-implied probability, it can flag a value bet (+EV).
Where and when is the match played?
Roma vs Sassuolo is in Serie A (Round 11) on 2026-11-07. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC. Roma are the home team for this one, and they have won three straight home matches coming into it.
Where to watch Roma vs Sassuolo?
Serie A matches are often shown on broadcasters like TNT Sports or discovery+ in the UK, and on Paramount+ in the US, depending on rights. You may also find official streaming via club and league partners, and some bookmakers like bet365 offer live streaming where available.
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