Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Can Levante end the winless run in La Liga?
This matchup between Levante and Athletic Bilbao presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking at total goals. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, as indicated by their past matches and the positive stats for over 0.5 and 1.5 goals. However, when we examine the H2H records, we see that the likelihood of exceeding 3.5 goals drops significantly, only 31% historically. While the computer model suggests a solid chance for this outcome, it's essential to balance expectation with historical trends. All in all, it's a risk worth taking, as both sides have the potential to surprise us on the offensive front!
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Levante vs Athletic Bilbao. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Levante vs Athletic Bilbao is played on 2026-10-21 in La Liga (Round 6), with kick-off at 18:00 UTC. Oddspedia SmartBet goes for Total Goals: Over 3.5, and it does so with a 5-star confidence rating. The model price is 31.40%, while the odds imply 29.41%, so there is a +6.77% positive expected value. That screams “value”, but will the game open up early or only late on? Levante have hit Over 3.5 in 50% of their league games, and the last H2H ended 4-2, so a shoot-out is not crazy.
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The community is leaning towards Draw No Bet: Levante, and it’s not a small lean either. Eight of 11 users back the home side on DNB at 2.62, which is basically saying: “Levante won’t lose at home, right?” It’s a safety-first angle because a draw returns your stake. The logic is clear. Athletic have the better long-term H2H, but Levante often keep games close at home, and late goals are their thing. Still, Levante are winless in five, so this tip is brave. Are you backing heart over form?
Consensus
13
Community Tips
279
Levante Form Analysis: Late goals, but no wins
Levante come into Round 6 sitting on 7 points from 8 matches, and their last five read DLLDD. That’s a winless run, so the pressure is real. The upside is their matches can be lively. They have landed Over 2.5 Goals in 63% of games and Over 3.5 Goals in 50%. They also score late, with 50% of their goals coming in minutes 76-90, so don’t switch off early. Brugue and Iván Romero both have 3 goals, so they do have finishers. But can they start faster at home?
Athletic Bilbao Form Analysis: Solid run, but where are the goals?
Athletic Bilbao are 9 points from 7 matches, and their last five are DDWDD. That’s unbeaten, and it shows a team that is hard to beat. The stats also scream “lower scoring” compared to Levante. Athletic have seen Over 2.5 Goals in only 25% of matches, and Over 3.5 in just 13%. BTTS is also low for them, especially away. Oddly, their listed top scorers sit on 0 goals, so the threat may be spread around rather than one star. Inaki Williams starts up front, so can he be the difference?
Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Odds: Away side shaded favourites
The Full Time Result market makes Athletic Bilbao favourites at 2.19, with Levante priced at 3.75 and the Draw at 3.44. That suggests the away side are trusted to avoid defeat. The Asian Handicap also leans Athletic, with -0.25 at 1.82 versus Levante +0.25 at 2.05. For totals, the book sits close to the line, with Over 2.5 Goals at 2.08 and Under 2.5 at 1.90. So, are we getting a tight game or a goal rush?
Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Predicted Lineups: Attacking shapes on show
Levante are set to line up in a 4-3-3 under Luis Castro, with Mathew Ryan in goal. Brugue and Iván Romero should lead the attack, and both have 3 league goals, so they are the key men for shots and moments. Enzo Bardeli and Oriol Rey shape the midfield, while Adrián De La Fuente features in defence too. Athletic Bilbao are tipped to go 4-2-3-1 with Unai Simón behind a strong-looking back line that includes Aymeric Laporte. Inaki Williams is the focal point, with Berenguer and Robert Navarro supporting. Which midfield wins the second balls?
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7
|
Athletic Bilbao
|
11
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
15:11
|
D
L
W
W
D
?
|
16
| |
17
|
Levante
|
12
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
16:21
|
D
W
L
L
D
?
|
11
| |
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FAQ Levante vs Athletic Bilbao
Who will win between Levante and Athletic Bilbao?
Bookmakers lean Athletic Bilbao, with shorter odds on the away win (2.19) than Levante (3.75). Athletic are also unbeaten in five and have dominated the recent head-to-head. Still, a draw is very live at 3.44.
What is the best bet for Levante and Athletic Bilbao?
The top model pick is Total Goals: Over 3.5, with a 5-star confidence rating and +6.77% expected value. Community users prefer Draw No Bet: Levante at 2.62, which refunds on a draw.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction. It simulates outcomes and compares the model probability to the odds-implied probability. When the model is higher, it can flag a value bet, like this Over 3.5 call.
Where and when is the match played?
Levante vs Athletic Bilbao is in La Liga (Round 6). The match is played on 2026-10-21, with kick-off at 18:00 UTC. It is hosted by Levante as the home team.
Where to watch Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?
La Liga is usually shown on major sports broadcasters, depending on your country, such as Premier Sports or ITV-linked rights packages in the UK when applicable. Many bettors also use bet365 for livestreaming, where available.
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