Finished
1 - 1
(HT 0 - 0)
7th Nov 26, 12:30 PM
90'
A. Catena
84'
N. Williams

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Can Osasuna stop Bilbao’s away momentum in La Liga?

Last updated 5 days ago by Ben Cronin
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What is SmartBet?

Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao is played on 2026-11-07 in La Liga (Round 12), with kick-off at 17:30 UTC. Our computer model leans to Total Goals – Over 3.5, and it’s doing it with a 5-star confidence rating. The model price is 28.13%, while the odds imply 26.67%, so there’s a +5.47% positive expected value. Will the game open up late, like Osasuna often do after half-time? And can Bilbao’s three-match winning streak push the tempo? It’s a punchy angle, but the value is the hook.

Prematch Probabilities

Winner probabilities
OSA
32% Home
27% Draw
41% Away
BIL
Correct Score probabilities
>3 3 2 1 0
3.6% 0.1% 2.3% 3.0% 2.0% 1.1% 5.3% 7.6% 5.4% 2.6% 8.5% 12.4% 8.8% 4.1% 7.5% 9.9% 7.1% 3.3% 5.4%
0 1 2 3 >3
Correct Score: 1-1

What does the Oddspedia community think?

Total Goals: Under 0.5
100%
15 of 15 Tips
+11
bet365
Lost
+700

Want a wild community shout? The Oddspedia crowd has gone all-in on Total Goals Under 0.5 at odds of 11.60, with 15 of 15 picks landing on the same line. That’s basically calling for a 0-0. Does the head-to-head support it? Kind of, since the most common score is 1-1 and the average meeting has only 1.80 goals. Still, Under 0.5 needs everything to go perfectly for defenders and keepers. It’s a long-shot consensus, not a safe one.

Consensus

18
Total Goals: Under 0.5
100%
18 of 18 Tips
bet365
Best odds
+700
Next Goal: No Goal
100%
16 of 16 Tips
Betway
Best odds
+700
Total Goals: Over 4.5
100%
8 of 8 Tips
bet365
Best odds
+800
Total Goals: Over 3.5
100%
5 of 5 Tips
bet365
Best odds
+333
Asian Handicap: Athletic Bilbao -1.5
100%
4 of 4 Tips
DraftKings
Best odds
+280

Community Tips

417
-1,176.60
1106 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
Total Goals: Over 2.25
Lost
-106
+24.58
110 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
Full Time Result: Athletic Bilbao
Lost
+100
+104.28
185 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
Asian Handicap: Osasuna +0.5
Won
-122
-368.07
833 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
First Team to Score: Athletic Bilbao
Won
-143
+4.20
56 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
Correct Score: 1 : 2
Lost
+800
+4.20
56 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
1st Half Correct Score: 1 : 2
Lost
+1600
+4.20
56 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
Half Time / Full Time: Athletic Bilbao / Athletic Bilbao
Lost
+210
-228.20
900 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
Full Time Result: Athletic Bilbao
Lost
+100
-169.55
1294 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
Full Time Result: Athletic Bilbao
Lost
+100
-474.24
1046 Tips
5 days ago
Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
2nd Half Total Goals: Over 3.5
Lost
+870
L W L W L

Osasuna form analysis: Can Budimir carry them?

Osasuna come in with a shaky LWLWL run, and they sit 16th-ish pace with 11 points from 11 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses). The big positive is Ante Budimir, already on 8 goals in 11 games, which is a serious output. But home attack can go quiet, with 2 blanks in 5 home La Liga matches. Goal lines are mixed too: 50% of their games go Over 2.5, yet only 33% hit Over 3.5. Can they start fast, or will they lean on that strong 46–60 minute scoring window?

D L W W W

Athletic Bilbao form analysis: Are they peaking now?

Athletic Bilbao look steadier right now, with DLWWW in their last five and 15 points from 10 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). They also bring a three-game winning streak, which matters in a tricky away spot. Alex Berenguer and Iñaki Williams both have 3 goals and 3 assists, so the creativity is shared, not forced. Still, they have not scored in 2 of 4 away league games, so it’s not always smooth. With Osasuna averaging 1.00 goal per match against them, can Bilbao keep control and nick it late?

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Stats

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao odds: Bilbao slight favourites

The Full Time Result odds make Athletic Bilbao the favourites at 2.18, while Osasuna are 3.81 and the Draw is 3.60. That suggests the bookies trust Bilbao’s stronger league form. On the Asian Handicap, -0.25 for Bilbao is 1.88, which backs them to edge it, with +0.25 on Osasuna at 2.09. For goals, Over 2.25 is 1.88 and Under 2.25 is 2.02, so the market expects around two goals, not a goal-fest.

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Odds

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao predicted line-ups: Who starts up top?

Osasuna are listed in a 4-3-3 under Jagoba Arrasate, with Sergio Herrera in goal and a back four of Rosier, Boyomo, Catena, and Bretones. The midfield three of Moncayola, Iker Munoz, and Moi Gomez should try to feed Budimir early. Up front, Raul Moro and Jonathan Dubasin flank Budimir, who is the clear main threat. Athletic Bilbao line up 4-2-3-1 with Unai Simon behind Rincon, Vivian, Laporte, and Yuri. Gerenabarrena and Urtasan sit, while Berenguer supports Iñaki and Nico Williams, with Sannadi leading the line. Which wide pair wins the duel?

Osasuna Arrasate, Jagoba
Athletic Bilbao Terzic, Edin
4-3-3
A. Fernandez
13
V. Rosier
19
A. Catena
24
F. Boyomo
22
A. Bretones
23
68' Substitute Out
Yellow Card
J. Moncayola
7
L. Torro
6
74' Substitute Out
M. Gomez
16
80' Substitute Out
R. Garcia
14
80' Substitute Out
Yellow Card
A. Budimir
17
68' Substitute Out
R. Moro
18
4-2-3-1
U. Simon
1
H. Rincon
15
D. Vivian
3
A. Laporte
14
Y. Berchiche
17
65' Substitute Out
B. Gerenabarrena
24
87' Substitute Out
P. Urtasan
28
90' Substitute Out
A. Berenguer
7
65' Substitute Out
R. Navarro
23
87' Substitute Out
N. Williams
10
I. Williams
9
Estadio El Sadar
Sesma Espinosa, Miguel

Head-2-Head

Last 9 years
6
Wins
7
Draws
7
Wins
20 played

Standings

# Team P W D L Goals Pts
7
11
4
4
3
15:11
D L W W D ?
16
16
12
3
3
6
12:23
L W L L D ?
12

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FAQ Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao

Who will win between Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao?

The odds slightly favour Athletic Bilbao (2.18) over Osasuna (3.81), with the Draw at 3.60. Bilbao also have better recent form and a three-match winning streak. Still, head-to-heads are often tight, so a close game is likely.

What is the best bet for Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao?

The SmartBet model’s pick is Total Goals – Over 3.5, with 5-star confidence. The model probability is 28.13% versus 26.67% implied by odds, giving +5.47% expected value. It’s value-driven, but it’s still a high line.

What is Oddspedia SmartBet?

Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction that simulates match outcomes and turns them into probabilities. It also compares model probability to implied odds to spot value (+EV). Here, it flags Over 3.5 Goals as a value angle.

Where and when is the match played?

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao is in La Liga (Round 12) on 2026-11-07. The listed kick-off time is 17:30 UTC. It’s a key mid-season spot, with Bilbao above Osasuna in the table.

Where to watch Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?

La Liga matches are commonly shown on broadcasters such as Premier Sports or LaLigaTV partners, depending on your country. You can also check live-stream options with bookmakers like bet365 where available. Always confirm local listings before kick-off.

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