OT
3 - 2
(HT 0 - 1)
1st Jul 26, 4:00 PM
86'
R. Lukaku
89'
Y. Tielemans
120+5' Pen
Y. Tielemans
24'
H. Diarra
51'
I. Sarr
Match highlights

Belgium vs Senegal Prediction: Can Belgium keep rolling in the World Cup?

Last updated 4 months ago by Ben Cronin
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What is SmartBet?

Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Belgium vs Senegal. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.

Belgium vs Senegal is set for 2026-07-01 in the World Cup (Playoffs Round Of 32), with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Our computer model leans to Double Chance: 12, so it’s backing no draw. The SmartBet confidence is a strong 5-star, with a 0.76 model probability versus 0.73 implied by the odds. That gap creates around 0.05 positive expected value, which is what bettors love to see. Will it be Belgium’s control, or Senegal’s chaos in transition, that decides it?

Prematch Probabilities

Winner probabilities
BEL
45% Home
24% Draw
31% Away
SEN

SmartBet forecast correct: Home Winner

Correct Score probabilities
>3 3 2 1 0
8.7% 0.3% 3.7% 5.1% 3.5% 1.6% 6.7% 9.1% 6.3% 2.9% 8.0% 10.8% 7.4% 3.4% 4.8% 6.5% 4.4% 2.0% 4.8%
0 1 2 3 >3
Correct Score: 1-1

What does the Oddspedia community think?

Both Teams to Score: Yes
98%
47 of 48 Tips
+43
bet365
Won
-163

The Oddspedia community is heavily leaning into Both Teams to Score: Yes, and it’s not even close. A huge 47 of 48 tipsters are on BTTS Yes at 1.80, which tells you most people expect action at both ends. Does the data back it up? Belgium and Senegal both show 0.67 BTTS from the recent sample, and Senegal’s away BTTS sits at 1.00. With both sides scoring plenty in second halves, the crowd is basically calling for an open game.

Consensus

29
Correct Score: 1 : 1
100%
15 of 15 Tips
bet365
Best odds
+600
Correct Score: 2 : 1
100%
10 of 10 Tips
bet365
Best odds
+800
Half Time / Full Time: Belgium / Draw
100%
9 of 9 Tips
bet365
Best odds
+1200
Draw No Bet: Belgium
100%
6 of 6 Tips
DraftKings
Best odds
-255
Correct Score: 0 : 0
100%
6 of 6 Tips
FanDuel
Best odds
+1400

Community Tips

436
+228.97
106 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
Full Time Result: Belgium
Lost
-105
+20.81
69 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
To Win From Behind: Belgium
Lost
+900
-472.26
860 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
Total Goals: Over 2.5
Won
-137
-488.45
237 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
To Win From Behind: Senegal
Lost
+1500
-488.45
237 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
Total Corners: Over 12
Lost
+283
-308.34
820 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
FT inc. OT To Qualify: Belgium
Won
-200
-655.25
1233 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
Correct Score: 4 : 4
Lost
+15000
-655.25
1233 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
1st Half Correct Score: 2 : 2
Lost
+4000
-74.06
256 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
Total Goals: Over 2.5
Won
-137
-127.90
69 Tips
4 months ago
Belgium - Senegal
Total Goals: Over 2.5
Won
-137
W W D D W

Belgium Form Analysis: Reliable and ruthless late

Belgium come in on WWDDW, and the wider story is even better: 16 games unbeaten. They average 2.00 goals from 23.30 shots, and they keep games under control with 59% possession. The big tell is timing. They score 1.70 goals in the second half, so they often finish stronger than they start. At the back, they concede just 0.70 per match, which supports a solid baseline. Trossard leads the way with 2 goals, while Lukaku and De Bruyne chip in too.

L D L L W

Senegal Form Analysis: High-scoring, high-risk profile

Senegal’s recent form reads LDLLW, so it’s been a bit up and down. Still, the numbers scream goals. They average 2.70 scored and 2.00 conceded per match, with 100% of games going Over 2.5 and Over 3.5. Like Belgium, they do most damage after the break, scoring 2.30 in the second half on average. Their shooting is efficient too, with 6.70 shots on target per game. Iliman Ndiaye stands out with 2 goals and 2 assists in just 2 appearances.

Belgium vs Senegal Stats

Belgium vs Senegal Odds: Slight edge to Belgium

The Full Time Result market makes Belgium the narrow favourites at 2.22, with the Draw at 3.42 and Senegal at 3.75. The Asian Handicap line sits around Belgium -0.25 at 1.86, which suggests the books rate Belgium just a touch stronger over 90 minutes. Goals are priced right down the middle too. Over 2.5 is 2.00 and Under 2.5 is 1.95, so bookmakers expect a close call on whether we get three goals.

Belgium vs Senegal Odds
Belgium Garcia, Rudi
Senegal Thiaw, Pape
4-2-3-1
T. Courtois
1
T. Castagne
21
Yellow Card
B. Mechele
4
A. Theate
3
78' Substitute Out
M. De Cuyper
5
63' Substitute Out
H. Vanaken
20
x2
Y. Tielemans
8
56' Substitute Out
J. Doku
11
56' Substitute Out
K. De Bruyne
7
109' Substitute Out
A
L. Trossard
10
46' Substitute Out
C. De Ketelaere
17
4-3-3
M. Diaw
23
K. Diatta
15
P. Ciss
6
A
M. Niakhate
19
93' Substitute Out
I. Jakobs
14
73' Substitute Out
H. Diarra
21
96' Substitute Out
I. Gueye
5
66' Substitute Out
P. Gueye
26
73' Substitute Out
I. Ndiaye
13
I. Sarr
18
94' Substitute Out
S. Mane
10
Lumen Field
Martinez Sorto, Hector Said

Last Matches

W L W L W ?
L D W W W ?

Head-2-Head

Last 9 years
1
Win
0
Wins
1 played

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FAQ Belgium vs Senegal

Who will win between Belgium and Senegal?

Belgium are slight favourites on the odds, and they also bring a 16-game unbeaten run. Senegal can absolutely win if they score first, but Belgium’s lower goals conceded rate (0.70 per match) gives them the steadier profile.

What is the best bet for Belgium and Senegal?

The model’s top play is Double Chance: 12, which means you are backing Belgium or Senegal to win, and avoiding the draw. It rates at 5-star confidence with a 0.76 model probability and about 0.05 positive EV.

What is Oddspedia SmartBet?

Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction that simulates outcomes and compares its probability to the odds. If the model probability is higher than the implied odds probability, it can flag a positive expected value betting spot.

Where and when is the match played?

Belgium vs Senegal is on 2026-07-01, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. It is part of the World Cup, in the Playoffs Round Of 32. It’s a knockout setting, so game management will matter a lot.

Where to watch Belgium vs Senegal?

World Cup matches are usually shown on major UK broadcasters and their streaming apps, such as BBC or ITV when they hold rights. You may also find live streams via bookmaker services like bet365, depending on your location rules.

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