Celtic vs Besiktas Prediction as home scoring form offers hope after three European defeats
The Celtic v Besiktas prediction favours Celtic or the draw at around 7/10. Celtic's recent results are mixed, but their home advantage and six-match scoring run give them a basis for avoiding defeat.
Besiktas have made the stronger European start, taking seven points while Celtic remain without one. Low-scoring head-to-head encounters support a competitive reading, though they don't establish that Celtic will earn a result.
SmartBet's 64.55% estimate exceeds the original market-implied 59.88% by 4.67 percentage points. That suggests potential value, but Celtic's six-game run of conceding remains a concern.
The Celtic v Besiktas prediction favours Celtic or the draw at around 7/10. Celtic's recent results are mixed, but their home advantage and six-match scoring run give them a basis for avoiding defeat.
Besiktas have made the stronger European start, taking seven points while Celtic remain without one. Low-scoring head-to-head encounters support a competitive reading, though they don't establish that Celtic will earn a result.
SmartBet's 64.55% estimate exceeds the original market-implied 59.88% by 4.67 percentage points. That suggests potential value, but Celtic's six-game run of conceding remains a concern.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Celtic vs Besiktas. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Our Celtic v Besiktas prediction backs Celtic or the draw in this Europa League Round 4 meeting on 5th November 2026. Kick-off is at 20:00 UTC.
SmartBet gives Double Chance: 1X five stars, estimating a 64.55% probability against the market-implied 59.88%. Its projected positive expected value is 7.80%, dependent on the model's accuracy.
Celtic have lost their opening three European matches, but they've scored in six consecutive games overall. Home advantage offers a reason to consider them avoiding defeat, although Besiktas arrive with seven Europa League points.
Our Expert's Prediction - Celtic vs Besiktas Draw No Bet Full Time
My alternative is Celtic draw no bet at 6/5 with Sean Graham. It keeps the home-team preference while offering a higher return for a Celtic win, with the stake returned if the match finishes level.
Celtic average 2.29 goals at home and have scored in six consecutive matches. Their 48% first-half win rate, compared with Besiktas's 37%, adds another reason to consider the hosts.
The drawback is that a draw no longer produces a profit. SmartBet's 64.55% estimate includes both Celtic wins and draws, so it doesn't establish a separate value edge for this market.
Prematch Probabilities
SmartBet forecast correct: Home Winner
What does the Oddspedia community think?
Besiktas have attracted 70.3% of the 37 community selections in the Full Time Result market. The away win at around 3/2 is the leading pick.
Their seven points after three Europa League games compare favourably with Celtic's zero. That difference helps explain the support for Besiktas despite the trip to Celtic Park.
Celtic have scored in six consecutive matches, giving the visitors something to manage. The community preference also runs against SmartBet's Celtic-or-draw selection, so the two views disagree on the result.
Consensus
7Community Tips
147
Celtic form analysis: Can they finally get points?
Celtic's last five results read WLWDL, but their Europa League start has brought three defeats and no points. Their European record is weaker than that mixed overall sequence.
They've scored in six consecutive games, with Mika Baur contributing two goals in three Europa League appearances. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of their matches.
The problem is at the other end, where they've conceded in six straight games. Celtic need to improve defensively without losing the scoring threat that supports the 1X selection.
Besiktas form analysis: Can they stay unbeaten?
Besiktas's last five results read WLDWD. They're unbeaten in the Europa League, taking seven points after three matches, although their overall sequence includes a defeat.
Junior Olaitan has three goals and three assists in three European appearances. His attacking contribution is a clear concern for a Celtic side struggling to keep clean sheets.
Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 53% of Besiktas's games, compared with Celtic's 74%. Their average of 1.46 away goals supports the visiting threat without making an away win certain.
Celtic vs Besiktas odds: Away side shaded favourites
Besiktas are slight Full Time Result favourites at around 3/2, with Celtic at around 19/9 and the draw at around 3/1. The original prices imply probabilities of 40.8%, 32.3% and 25.3% respectively.
The Asian handicap quotes are +0.25 at around 14/15 and -0.25 at around 4/9. On a draw, the positive handicap returns half the stake and wins the other half; the negative handicap produces a half-loss.
Under 3.25 goals is favoured at around 8/9, against over 3.25 at around 19/9. Exactly three goals produces a half-win on the under and a half-loss on the over, so the settlement differs from a 3.5-goal line.
Celtic vs Besiktas predicted lineups: Shapes and key men
Celtic are tipped to use Martin O'Neill's 4-2-3-1, with Sam Johnstone behind Lotomba, Carter-Vickers, Scales and Tierney. McGregor is expected to help control midfield, while Baur offers a scoring threat after two goals in three Europa League appearances.
Forrest, Nygren and Tounekti could support Hogh. Their positioning behind the striker would give Celtic options between Besiktas's midfield and defence, provided the hosts can move the ball forward cleanly.
Besiktas are expected to use Vincenzo Italiano's 4-3-3, with Nuebel in goal and Olaitan, Trossard and Ozcan in midfield. Oh Hyeon-gyu, Cerny and Poku are tipped for the front line, with Olaitan's forward involvement potentially testing the cover around Celtic's central midfield.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8
|
Besiktas
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
11:8
|
L
W
W
D
L
?
|
7
| |
32
|
Celtic
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
6:11
|
L
L
L
W
?
|
3
| |
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FAQ Celtic vs Besiktas
Who will win between Celtic and Besiktas?
Besiktas look stronger on the table with 7 points from 3 games, while Celtic have 0. Still, Celtic score often at home, so a tight match is likely. The SmartBet model’s safer lean is Celtic or Draw (1X).
What is the best bet for Celtic and Besiktas?
The top model-backed pick is Double Chance: 1X. The model gives it a 64.55% chance, while the odds imply 59.88%, creating positive expected value. It suits a match where Celtic need points but Besiktas are hard to beat.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer model prediction. It simulates match outcomes and compares the model probability to the odds probability. When the model probability is higher, it can point to positive expected value bets, like Celtic 1X here.
Where and when is the match played?
Europa League matches are often shown on TNT Sports in the UK, with streaming via discovery+. Other regions may have rights via broadcasters like DAZN or local sports channels. Some bookmakers, such as bet365, may offer live streaming if you have an account.
Where to watch Celtic vs Besiktas?
Europa League matches are often shown on TNT Sports in the UK, with streaming via discovery+. Other regions may have rights via broadcasters like DAZN or local sports channels. Some bookmakers, such as bet365, may offer live streaming if you have an account.
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