Bologna vs SSD Monza Prediction: Can Bologna finally win at home in Serie A?
Given the current form of both teams, a draw is a compelling prediction for the upcoming clash between Bologna and SSD Monza. Bologna has struggled at home this season, with no wins in their last five matches, while Monza has yet to find success in away fixtures. Historical data supports the draw, demonstrating that in recent encounters, Bologna has only edged out Monza slightly. Notably, both teams are coming off losses, indicating a potential for a cautious approach. With both sides having strong defensive tendencies yet inconsistent scoring, a stalemate at full-time feels like a well-founded expectation. A draw appears to hold considerable value in this matchup.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Bologna vs SSD Monza. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Bologna vs SSD Monza takes place on 2026-10-31 in Serie A (Round 10), with kick-off at 14:00 UTC. The Oddspedia SmartBet model lands on a Draw, and it does so with a 5-star confidence rating. The model probability is 0.27, while the odds imply 0.25, which leaves a +0.06 positive expected value. Bologna look stronger on paper, yet they still have not won at home this season. Monza travel badly, but they keep scoring. So, will this turn into another tight, messy split of points?
Prematch Probabilities
SmartBet forecast correct: Home Winner
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The community angle is clear: most punters are leaning Bologna on the Full Time Result. It is 8 of 12 votes backing the home win, priced at 1.74. That price screams “favourites”, but the match stats add a warning sign. Bologna are 0-2-2 at home, and they have conceded in 10 straight matches, so can they really shut Monza out? Monza are also winless in five away games, yet they tend to nick a goal. If you are siding with the crowd, you are basically betting Bologna finally turn possession into points.
Consensus
4
Community Tips
81
Bologna form analysis: Good run, home win still missing
Bologna come in with DWLWW, which looks tidy, yet the league table says 13th with 11 points from 9 matches. The big issue is at home: 0-2-2, and they have not won in five home games in a row. They also keep conceding, with a goal allowed in each of their last 10 matches, so clean sheets feel far away. The good news is they have scored in five straight and usually start fast, with 25% of goals coming in the first 15 minutes. Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda leads them with 3 goals. Can he spark a long-awaited home win?
SSD Monza form analysis: Away struggles, but goals keep coming
Monza’s recent form reads DLWLL and the league position is 7 points from 9 games, so it has been a rough start. Away from home it is even worse, with a 0-1-4 record and no wins in the last five away matches. Still, they are not toothless. They have scored at least once in 15 consecutive matches, and 27% of their goals come just after half-time (minutes 46-60), which makes them dangerous if the game opens up. The BTTS profile is strong too, with 73% overall and 83% away. Gustavo Varela is listed as the key scorer in the match facts, so can he turn chances into a shock result?
Bologna vs SSD Monza odds: Home favourites, draw offers value
Bookmakers make Bologna the clear favourite at 1.74, with the Draw at 4.02 and Monza at 5.40. That sets up a classic “home win or stalemate” type of match. The Asian Handicap line of Bologna -0.75 at 1.93 shows decent belief in a home edge, but not total certainty. Goals are priced close, with Over 2.5 at 1.91 and Under 2.5 at 2.05, so the market expects a near 50-50 call. With BTTS trends strong for both sides, will the goals market be the safer lane?
Bologna vs SSD Monza predicted line-ups: Back threes and quick wide play
Bologna are tipped to line up 3-4-3 under Raffaele Palladino. Skorupski should start in goal, with Darmian, Casale, and Theate across the back three. The wing roles look key, as Zortea and Bonkano can push high and keep Monza pinned in. Ferguson and Pobega should run the middle, while Bernardeschi, Odgaard, and Mbangula Tshifunda offer movement and early pressure up front. Monza are set for a 3-4-2-1 with Ivan Juric, led by Tornqvist in net and a back three of Goglichidze, Lucchesi, and Bakoune. Mangas and Birindelli provide the width, with Ngonge and Robinson playing off striker Gustavo Varela. Who wins the wing battle probably wins the match rhythm.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8
|
Bologna
|
11
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
16:14
|
L
W
W
W
W
?
|
17
| |
18
|
SSD Monza
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
8
|
17:25
|
W
L
L
L
L
?
|
7
| |
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FAQ Bologna vs SSD Monza
Who will win between Bologna and SSD Monza?
The odds make Bologna favourites, but the SmartBet computer model points to a Draw. Bologna have not won at home this season, and Monza have scored in 15 straight matches, so a tight scoreline looks very possible.
What is the best bet for Bologna and SSD Monza?
The top data-led pick here is Full Time Result: Draw, because the model probability (0.27) is higher than the odds-implied probability (0.25), creating a +0.06 expected value. BTTS is also supported by strong team trends.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction that simulates match outcomes and turns them into probabilities. It then compares those probabilities to bookmaker odds to spot positive expected value (+EV) bets, like the Draw in this game.
Where and when is the match played?
Bologna vs SSD Monza is a Serie A Round 10 match on 2026-10-31. Kick-off is set for 14:00 UTC. It is played at Bologna’s home ground, where they are still chasing their first home league win this season.
Where to watch Bologna vs SSD Monza?
Serie A matches are commonly shown on broadcasters like TNT Sports or discovery+ in the UK (rights can change by season). You may also find official streaming via club or league partners. Some bookmakers, such as bet365, sometimes offer live streaming to eligible customers.
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