Augsburg vs Freiburg Prediction: Can the home unbeaten run hold in Bundesliga?
Under 3.5 Goals is the SmartBet choice for our Augsburg v Freiburg prediction. The model’s 67.14% estimate exceeds the bookmaker-implied 57.05%, suggesting potential value, while the head-to-head history includes several draws and tight scorelines.
Recent form summaries describe Augsburg as winless in five and Freiburg as winning once in five, although both displayed form strings contain a victory at either end. Augsburg’s eight-match conceding streak and Freiburg’s seven-match run without a clean sheet are the main threats to the selection.
Under 3.5 Goals is the SmartBet choice for our Augsburg v Freiburg prediction. The model’s 67.14% estimate exceeds the bookmaker-implied 57.05%, suggesting potential value, while the head-to-head history includes several draws and tight scorelines.
Recent form summaries describe Augsburg as winless in five and Freiburg as winning once in five, although both displayed form strings contain a victory at either end. Augsburg’s eight-match conceding streak and Freiburg’s seven-match run without a clean sheet are the main threats to the selection.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Augsburg vs Freiburg. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Our Augsburg v Freiburg prediction favours Under 3.5 Goals for this Bundesliga Round 8 meeting on 31st October 2026, kicking off at 14:30 UTC. Oddspedia SmartBet gives the selection a five-star confidence rating.
The model estimates a 67.14% probability against a bookmaker-implied 57.05%, reporting +17.69% expected value. The frequent 1-1 scoreline in Augsburg supports the choice, although both teams’ recent conceding records leave room for caution.
Our Expert's Prediction - Augsburg vs Freiburg Asian Handicap Full Time
Augsburg +0.25 is my editorial pick at around 1/1. Their 10-match unbeaten home run and three consecutive home meetings without defeat against Freiburg make this an appealing alternative, with a draw returning half the stake as a win and half as a refund.
The potential value rests on Augsburg extending that home record against the narrow market favourites. Freiburg are higher in the table, while Augsburg have conceded in eight successive matches, so the handicap offers limited protection if the visitors win.
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The Oddspedia community favour the full-time draw, with 53.6% of 28 tips backing it at around 3/1. There have been 10 draws across the last 36 meetings, and the most recent encounter finished 2-2.
A 1-1 draw is the most common scoreline in Augsburg, occurring five times. Augsburg’s unbeaten home run adds weight to the community’s preference, although the vote share reflects opinion rather than a calculated probability.
Consensus
14Community Tips
267
Augsburg form analysis: Home strength, shaky defence
Augsburg are ninth with nine points after seven Bundesliga matches. Their home league record stands at one win, three draws and no defeats, alongside an overall unbeaten home run of 10 matches.
Their DDLDW form string includes a win, contrasting with the separate six-match winless streak. Augsburg have scored in 10 consecutive matches and conceded in eight, with Michael Gregoritsch on four goals and Fellhauer on three. They have lost just once in their last five meetings with Freiburg.
Freiburg form analysis: Higher spot, but momentum slipping
Freiburg are third with 13 points from seven Bundesliga matches. Their WLLLW form string contains three consecutive defeats between two wins, which conflicts with the description of them losing their latest three matches.
They have scored in 100% of their three away league matches, although seven successive matches without a clean sheet underline their defensive problems. Scherhant has three goals, Matanovic has also contributed, and Grifo remains a key creator in their expected 4-2-3-1.
Augsburg vs Freiburg odds: Away side narrow favourites
Freiburg are narrow favourites at 13/10, implying a 43.5% chance before bookmaker margin. Augsburg are around 2/1, with an original implied probability of 32.6%, while the draw is around 3/1, implying 24.6%.
The Asian Handicap prices are closely matched: Augsburg +0.25 and Freiburg -0.25 are both around 1/1. The goals line is 3.25, with Over 3.25 around 1/1 and Under 3.25 around 1/1, although the original prices make the under marginally shorter.
Augsburg vs Freiburg predicted line-ups: Shapes and key men
Augsburg are expected to use Manuel Baum’s 3-4-2-1, with Finn Dahmen in goal and Abdulay Juma Bah and Chrislain Matsima among the back three. Keitel, Rieder and Behrens could feature in midfield, with Komur and Fellhauer supporting Rodrigo Ribeiro and providing options between Freiburg’s midfield and defence.
Freiburg could line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Florian Müller in goal, Ginter leading the defence and Christian Günter at left-back. Eggestein and Engelhardt would provide the deeper midfield pairing, allowing Grifo and Irie to support Matanovic. Freiburg’s tendency to score between the 76th and 90th minutes could make their late attacking changes significant.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3
|
Freiburg
|
9
|
6
|
1
|
2
|
20:10
|
W
L
L
W
W
?
|
19
| |
14
|
Augsburg
|
9
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
20:20
|
D
L
D
L
L
?
|
9
| |
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FAQ Augsburg vs Freiburg
Who will win between Augsburg and Freiburg?
Freiburg are slight favourites on the odds, but Augsburg’s long unbeaten home run makes it tricky. The match also has a strong draw feel, with a 2-2 last time and lots of tight games in Augsburg. A narrow away win or a draw look most likely.
What is the best bet for Augsburg and Freiburg?
The top model pick is Total Goals: Under 3.5. The SmartBet model rates it at 67.14% with 57.05% implied by odds, creating +17.69% expected value. It fits the common 1-1 scoreline history at Augsburg, too.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer model that simulates match outcomes to estimate probabilities for betting markets. It then compares those probabilities with bookmaker odds to spot value bets. Here, it flags Under 3.5 Goals as a strong value play.
Where and when is the match played?
Augsburg vs Freiburg is played in the Bundesliga, Round 8, on 31st October 2026. Kick-off is set for 14:30 UTC. Augsburg are the home team, and they have been tough to beat at home this season.
Where to watch Augsburg vs Freiburg?
Bundesliga matches are commonly shown on broadcasters like Sky Sport and DAZN, depending on your location and rights. Some bookmakers also offer livestreams for account holders, such as bet365. Always check local listings for the official coverage.
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