Roma vs Genoa Prediction: Can Roma stay unbeaten in Serie A?
When Roma faces Genoa, the prediction for total goals being under 3.5 stands strong. Analyzing both teams' recent performances, we can see that Roma has tightened its defense in their last five matches, resulting in low-scoring games. Genoa, despite a mixed bag of results, has struggled to find the net consistently. The historical head-to-head stats reveal a tendency for lower-scoring encounters, with over 3.5 goals occurring in just 44% of their matchups. This trend, combined with Roma’s solid home form, suggests a tightly contested game that is likely to end with fewer than four goals. A bet on under 3.5 goals looks promising here.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Roma vs Genoa. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Roma vs Genoa takes place on 2026-10-17 in Serie A (Round 7), with kick-off at 18:45 UTC. Our computer model leans to Total Goals: Under 3.5, and it does so with a 5-star confidence rating. The model price is 0.74 probability, while the odds imply 0.66, so there is a 0.13 positive expected value on the line. Roma are unbeaten after six rounds, and Genoa have struggled on the road lately. Will Roma control the tempo and keep it tight? If they do, the under looks very live.
Prematch Probabilities
SmartBet forecast correct: Home Winner
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The Oddspedia community is pretty clear on this one. The top consensus pick is Full Time Result: Roma at 1.61, backed by 29 of 33 voters. That lines up with the table too, as Roma sit on 14 points from six games, while Genoa have just 4. Roma have also dominated this match-up for years, especially at home. Still, do you worry about a tricky moment if Genoa nick the first goal? The crowd is trusting Roma to start fast and get the job done.
Consensus
8
Community Tips
144
Roma form analysis: Can the unbeaten run continue?
Roma come into Round 7 sitting 4-2-0 with 14 points, so the vibe is calm and confident. Their last five reads DWDDL, and they have not lost in eight matches overall. At home they are 2-1-0 this season, and they have also stayed unbeaten in their last eight home games. Donyell Malen is the key finisher with 6 goals in 6 games, while Dybala has 4 assists. Roma matches go Over 2.5 in 63%, but Over 3.5 is only 50%, so a controlled win is very possible.
Genoa form analysis: Can they stop the away slide?
Genoa look like they are still searching for rhythm. They are 1-1-4 after six matches, with just 4 points, and their last five is DWLLW. The big problem is away form, as they have lost four away matches in a row. In goals trends, only 25% of their games go Over 3.5, and they score in both halves just 13% of the time, which hints at low sustained threat. Milutin Osmajic is listed with 3 goals in the match facts, and he is the main danger, but support has been limited.
Roma vs Genoa odds: Roma favoured at home
Bookmakers make Roma clear favourites in the Full Time Result market, with Roma at 1.61, Draw at 4.28, and Genoa at 6.50. The Asian Handicap -1 on Roma is 2.03, which suggests a one-goal win is a common expectation. For Total Goals 2.5, Over is 1.91 and Under is 2.05, so the market sits right on the fence. That balance fits the idea of Roma control, with Genoa not offering loads away from home.
Roma vs Genoa predicted lineups: Attacking wing-backs on show?
Roma are tipped to line up in a 3-4-3 under Gian Piero Gasperini. Gollini should start in goal, with Mancini, Ndicka, and Hermoso in the back three. Molina and Wesley Franca look set to provide the width, while De Roon and Manu Kone anchor midfield. Up front it is a tasty trio, with Dybala drifting between lines, Malen leading the scoring, and Soule adding a left-foot threat. Genoa are projected in a 3-4-2-1 for Daniele De Rossi, with Bijlow behind Otoa, Ostigard, and Vasquez. Messias and El Shaarawy sit behind Osmajic, so Genoa may try quick breaks rather than long spells of possession.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3
|
Roma
|
11
|
8
|
3
|
0
|
31:10
|
W
D
W
W
W
?
|
27
| |
13
|
Genoa
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
6
|
11:16
|
L
W
W
W
L
?
|
13
| |
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FAQ Roma vs Genoa
Who will win between Roma and Genoa?
Roma are the favourites at 1.61, and the table backs that up too. Roma have 14 points from 6 matches, while Genoa have 4. Roma also have a strong home head-to-head record against Genoa.
What is the best bet for Roma and Genoa?
The model’s top pick is Total Goals: Under 3.5 with a 5-star confidence rating. The model probability is 0.74 versus 0.66 from the odds, giving a 0.13 positive expected value. It suits a controlled Roma win.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer model prediction. It simulates match outcomes and turns them into probabilities for specific betting markets. It then compares those probabilities to the odds to spot value, like positive expected value bets.
Where and when is the match played?
Roma vs Genoa is in Serie A (Round 7) on 2026-10-17. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC. Roma are the home side, and they come in unbeaten after six league matches.
Where to watch Roma vs Genoa?
Serie A is often shown on TNT Sports or discovery+ in the UK, depending on the rights package for the season. You can also check official club channels for updates. Some bookmakers, like bet365, may offer live streaming if you have an account.
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