AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus Prediction as recent blanks put the goals market in focus
The AZ Alkmaar v Juventus prediction backs under 1.5 goals at 3/1. Both teams failed to score in their latest match, and AZ's goalless run extends to two games.
The head-to-head record shows no goals in previous meetings, supporting the low-scoring argument. Recent attacking difficulties also give the selection a basis, although neither establishes that this match will finish with fewer than two goals.
SmartBet estimates a 25.12% chance against the market-implied 25%, producing a narrow 0.48% expected-value edge. The five-star rating shouldn't be confused with a high probability of the bet winning.
The AZ Alkmaar v Juventus prediction backs under 1.5 goals at 3/1. Both teams failed to score in their latest match, and AZ's goalless run extends to two games.
The head-to-head record shows no goals in previous meetings, supporting the low-scoring argument. Recent attacking difficulties also give the selection a basis, although neither establishes that this match will finish with fewer than two goals.
SmartBet estimates a 25.12% chance against the market-implied 25%, producing a narrow 0.48% expected-value edge. The five-star rating shouldn't be confused with a high probability of the bet winning.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Our AZ Alkmaar v Juventus prediction considers under 1.5 goals in this Europa League Round 4 meeting on 5th November 2026. Kick-off is at 20:00 UTC.
Oddspedia SmartBet gives the selection five stars, with a 25.12% model probability against the market-implied 25%, equivalent to odds of 3/1. The projected positive expected value is just 0.48%.
Both teams lost without scoring last time out, while AZ have gone two matches without a goal. Those results support a low-scoring angle, but the model still rates under 1.5 as substantially less likely than the alternative.
Our Expert's Prediction - AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus Total Goals Full Time
My alternative is under 2.5 goals, quoted at 19/20 by Paddy Power. It keeps the lower-scoring approach while allowing a second goal that would defeat SmartBet's under-1.5 selection.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of AZ's matches and 38% of Juventus's. Both teams also failed to score last time out, making the extra room at this line appealing.
The price implies a 51.3% break-even probability. Historical scoring rates support consideration, but they aren't a match-specific forecast, and SmartBet's under-1.5 estimate can't establish value at a different goal line.
Prematch Probabilities
SmartBet forecast correct: Away Winner
What does the Oddspedia community think?
Juventus have attracted 82.4% of the 34 community selections in the Full Time Result market. The away win at 11/10 is the clear preference.
They're unbeaten in the Europa League after two wins and a draw, taking seven points compared with AZ's six. Their stronger competition record helps explain the backing.
AZ's home scoring threat remains a concern for anyone favouring Juventus outright. The voting majority reflects community opinion rather than an 82.4% probability of an away win.
Consensus
5Community Tips
149
AZ Alkmaar form analysis: Can the home attack wake up?
AZ's last five results read WDWLL. Their Europa League record is stronger, with six points after three matches following two wins and one defeat.
They've failed to score in two consecutive games, including their latest outing. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of their matches, giving the lower-scoring approach some support.
Patati and Meerdink have two goals each in the competition. AZ have scoring options, but their immediate task is to end the recent run of blanks.
Juventus form analysis: Can they stay unbeaten?
Juventus's last five results read LDWLW, but they're unbeaten in the Europa League. Two wins and a draw have brought seven points after three matches.
Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 38% of their games and over 3.5 in 23%. BTTS has landed in 20% of their last five, supporting the possibility of a game in which at least one team fails to score.
Woltemade and Kolo Muani have one goal each. Juventus failed to score in their latest defeat, so an away win still requires an attacking improvement on that performance.
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus odds: Away win shaded
Juventus are Full Time Result favourites at 11/10, with AZ at 8/4 and the draw at 11/4. Those prices imply probabilities of 48.3%, 24.1% and 26% respectively.
Juventus -0.5 is priced at 23/25, while AZ +0.5 is Evens. The away handicap needs Juventus to win; AZ's wins if the hosts avoid defeat.
Over 2.5 goals is 9/10 and under 2.5 is 11/10. These prices lean towards the over, contrasting with SmartBet's lower-scoring selection rather than confirming it.
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus predicted line-ups: Shapes and key names
AZ are tipped to use Lee Roy Echteld's 4-2-3-1, with De Busser behind Dijkstra, Goes, Schouten and De Wit. Kwakman and Peer Koopmeiners could form the central midfield pairing.
Patati, Byskov Andreasen and Daal are expected to support Meerdink. Their movement around Juventus's central midfield could help AZ connect possession with the striker rather than leaving him isolated.
Juventus could use Luciano Spalletti's 4-3-2-1, with Vicario behind Kalulu, Bremer, Lucumi and Cabal. Teun Koopmeiners, Douglas Luiz and McKennie are tipped for midfield, with Kolo Muani and Alajbegovic supporting Woltemade. That narrow attacking shape could put pressure on AZ's central pairing while leaving their full-backs room to advance.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5
|
Juventus
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
11:4
|
W
W
D
W
?
|
10
| |
14
|
AZ Alkmaar
|
4
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
7:4
|
L
W
W
L
?
|
6
| |
Oddspedia Tipster Competitions
Monthly Tipster Competition
Yearly Tipster Competition
Bundesliga Competition
La Liga Competition
EPL Competition
Get a free bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
FAQ AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
Who will win between AZ Alkmaar and Juventus?
Odds make Juventus the most likely winner at 11/10, with AZ at 8/4 and the draw at 11/4. Juventus also sit 7th points after three group games, while AZ have 6. It still looks close on paper.
What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar and Juventus?
The computer model SmartBet points to Total Goals – Under 1.5 with a 5-star confidence rating. The model probability is 25.12% versus 25.00% from odds, giving +0.48% expected value. It is a tight, low-score angle.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model betting pick. It uses match simulations to estimate probabilities, then compares them to odds to spot value. Here it backs Under 1.5 goals with a small positive expected value and top confidence.
Where and when is the match played?
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus is in the Europa League (Round 4). It is played on 5th November 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. AZ are the home side for this group match.
Where to watch AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Europa League matches are often shown on major sports broadcasters and their streaming apps, depending on your country. You can also check live listings on UEFA partners. Some bookmakers, like bet365, may offer live streaming if you have an account.
Sign up for the all new Oddspedia newsletter and the latest USA betting offers.
By submitting your email, you give us consent to contact you for marketing purposes.
