Napoli vs Roma Prediction: Will the home streak continue in Serie A?
Considering Napoli's impressive home record against Roma, where they’ve not lost in their last eight encounters, the Double Chance bet of 1X looks promising. Despite Napoli's recent inconsistency, they have managed to perform well in head-to-head matchups, including a solid scoring frequency at home. On the other hand, Roma has struggled historically in this fixture, particularly in away matches. With Napoli scoring 1.69 goals per home game and their defensive capability against a Roma side that hasn't won against them recently, this makes the Double Chance bet a reliable choice for bettors looking to capitalize on the match.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Napoli vs Roma. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Napoli vs Roma is set for 2026-10-24 in Serie A (Round 8), with kick-off at 16:00 UTC. Our computer model leans towards Double Chance: 1X, and it’s not shy about it. The model gives it a 66.69% hit rate, while the odds imply 63.69%, which creates a +4.71% positive expected value. Roma are unbeaten after seven rounds, sure, but Napoli have not lost to Roma at home in their last eight meetings. Can Roma finally break that run, or do Napoli nick at least a draw?
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The community is pretty aligned here. The top pick is Double Chance: 1X at 1.53, with 8 of 11 users backing it. That tells you most punters see Napoli avoiding defeat, even though Roma sit higher in the table. The key hook is the venue trend. Roma have not won away at Napoli since 2018, and Napoli are unbeaten in the last eight home H2Hs. Is it the safest angle on the board? It looks like it, especially with a tight-looking 1X2 market.
Consensus
8
Community Tips
121
Napoli form analysis: Can Allegri steady things?
Napoli come into this one with DWLLW in their last five, so it’s been a bit up and down. They are 9th with 10 points from seven games, which is a drop from last season’s early pace. At home, they have not lost to Roma in eight straight encounters, and that matters. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of their games, while BTTS is 50% across the last 10. Kevin De Bruyne leads the scoring with 3 goals, and Hojlund adds a solid 2. Can they turn home comfort into points?
Roma form analysis: Unbeaten, but tested here?
Roma are flying in the table. They are 2nd with 17 points from seven matches and still unbeaten, despite a DDLWW run in the last five. Away from home, they are 2-1-0 in Serie A and have not conceded a single away league goal yet. That’s a big signal for Under backers. Roma’s matches also lean a bit more open, though, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% and Over 3.5 in 50%. They often finish strong too, scoring 25% of their goals late (76-90). Can they stay patient if Napoli start fast?
Napoli vs Roma odds: Bookies call it tight
The Full Time Result market is basically split. Napoli are 2.75, the Draw is 3.43, and Roma are 2.80, so nobody is a clear favourite. The Asian Handicap 0 (Draw No Bet) prices at 1.95 and 1.99 also back up that “coin-flip” feel. Goals are priced close too. Over 2.5 is 1.93, while Under 2.5 is 2.05, which hints at a match hovering around the 2-3 goal line. So, do you play it safe with 1X, or chase goals?
Napoli vs Roma predicted lineups: Shape versus shape
Napoli are tipped to line up 3-4-2-1 under Massimiliano Allegri. Meret should start in goal, with Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, and Rafa Marin across the back three. Anguissa and McTominay look set to battle in midfield, while Spinazzola and Politano provide the width. The big creative spark is De Bruyne, likely tucked in behind Hojlund, with Noa Lang also supporting. Roma are forecast in a 3-4-3 for Gian Piero Gasperini. Gollini starts, with Balerdi and Hermoso in defence, De Roon anchoring midfield, and Pellegrini joining Malen and Rodrigo Mora in attack. Which front line clicks first?
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3
|
Roma
|
11
|
8
|
3
|
0
|
31:10
|
W
D
W
W
W
?
|
27
| |
10
|
Napoli
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
18:14
|
L
D
W
L
D
?
|
15
| |
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FAQ Napoli vs Roma
Who will win between Napoli and Roma?
It looks tight on the 1X2 odds, with Napoli at 2.75 and Roma at 2.80. Roma are unbeaten in the league, but Napoli have not lost to Roma at home in eight straight meetings. A draw or Napoli edge feels more likely than an away win.
What is the best bet for Napoli and Roma?
The best-rated angle is Double Chance: 1X. The model gives it a 66.69% probability, higher than the 63.69% implied by the odds. That creates +4.71% expected value. It also fits the long Napoli home H2H unbeaten run.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer model pick. It simulates match outcomes and turns them into probabilities for betting markets. You can compare the model probability to the odds-implied probability to spot value. Here, 1X shows a positive expected value.
Where and when is the match played?
Napoli vs Roma is in Serie A (Round 8). It is played on 2026-10-24, with a 16:00 UTC kick-off. Napoli are the home side, so the match is hosted in Naples at their home stadium.
Where to watch Napoli vs Roma?
Serie A matches are usually shown on major sports broadcasters depending on your country, such as TNT Sports or discovery+ in the UK (rights can change). Some bookmakers also offer streams, like bet365, if you have a funded account and meet viewing rules.
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