Parma vs SSD Monza Prediction: Can Parma finally score again in Serie A?
With the stats leaning in favor of a double chance for Parma, opting for "Double Chance: 12" is a sound choice. Historically, Parma has proven to be tough against SSD Monza, losing none of their last five encounters, with four of those being draws. Additionally, Monza's struggle to secure wins on the road further tilts the scales. Despite both teams showing lackluster performances lately, Parma's home advantage and ability to convert leads into victories creates a strong case. Given the recent goal-scoring trends and head-to-head records, this bet presents a reasonable opportunity for profit.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Parma vs SSD Monza. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Parma vs SSD Monza kicks off on 2026-09-06 in Serie A (Round 3), with both sides already sat on 0 points after two games. So who blinks first? The Oddspedia computer model leans to Double Chance: 12, meaning no draw, at 72.03% with a 5/5 confidence rating. The odds imply 71.43%, so there’s a small +EV of 0.84% too. Parma are on a three-game scoring drought, while Monza games have been wild for goals. That mix makes the “no draw” angle feel pretty logical.
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The community lean is pretty clear: Double Chance X2 at 1.57, with 2 of 3 tips landing on Monza avoiding defeat. Why does that make sense? Parma have lost three in a row and haven’t scored in their last three matches, so backing them to win outright feels brave right now. Still, the head-to-head leans Parma, with Monza winless in this match-up over the last 9 years, and the last meeting ended 1-1. Are the crowd trusting current form more than history? Looks that way, and it’s a fair shout.
Consensus
5
Community Tips
79
Parma Form Analysis: Can the goals finally come?
Parma’s last five reads LWLLL, and in the league they are 0 from 2 with 0 points. The bigger worry is up front. They average 0.00 goals per match, only 8.00 shots, and 2.50 shots on target, plus they have not scored in their last three matches. Possession sits at 44%, so they do see some of the ball, but it’s not turning into chances. The head-to-head helps, though. Parma are unbeaten against Monza in recent meetings, and the goal difference is 4-3 over the last five.
SSD Monza Form Analysis: Leaky but dangerous
Monza’s last five is DWLLW, and like Parma they have started Serie A with two defeats and 0 points. Still, their numbers look more lively. They score 1.50 goals per match, with 10.00 shots and 4.50 on target, so they do create. The problem is the other end. They concede 3.50 per match, which is huge, and that’s why 75% of their games have gone Over 2.5 goals. They have also scored in both halves in 50% of matches. Can they keep it tighter for once?
Parma vs SSD Monza Odds: Slight lean to Parma
Bookmakers make Parma a narrow favourite at 2.62, with the Draw at 3.25 and Monza at 3.15, so it’s basically a coin-flip match. The Asian Handicap 0 market also shows the split, with one side priced 1.81 and the other 2.16, hinting at only a small edge. For goals, Under 2.25 is favoured at 1.84 over Over 2.25 at 2.12, which fits the low-scoring head-to-head numbers. But Monza’s recent Overs keep it interesting.
Parma vs SSD Monza Predicted Lineups: Shape clash in Round 3
Parma are set to line up 4-3-3 under Carlos Cuesta, with Giovanni Daffara in goal and a back four of Sascha Britschgi, Dominik Drobnic, Lautaro Valenti, and Franco Carboni. In midfield, Giovanni Fabbian, Abdou-Salam Konate, and Christian Ordonez should try to push the tempo. The front three looks like Matija Frigan, Nesta Elphege, and Ousmane Diallo, and they badly need a spark after three scoreless games. Monza should go 3-4-2-1 for Ivan Juric, with Demba Thiam behind Maye, Lucchesi, and Kouadio. The wing-backs Adam Bakoune and Ricardo Mangas bring width, while Omari Forson and Jay Robinson sit behind Dany Mota.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16
|
Parma
|
11
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
9:17
|
L
L
D
W
L
?
|
8
| |
18
|
SSD Monza
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
8
|
17:25
|
W
L
L
L
L
?
|
7
| |
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FAQ Parma vs SSD Monza
Who will win between Parma and SSD Monza?
It looks very tight on paper. Parma are slight favourites by odds, but both teams have lost their first two league games. The SmartBet model prefers a “no draw” outcome, suggesting a narrow win either way is more likely than a stalemate.
What is the best bet for Parma and SSD Monza?
The top model pick is Double Chance: 12 (no draw). It carries a 72.03% model probability and a small +EV of 0.84%. Community tips lean to Double Chance X2, mainly because Parma have not scored in three matches.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction that simulates outcomes and compares probabilities to bookmaker odds. When the model probability is higher than the odds-implied probability, it can flag positive expected value (+EV) bets like this one.
Where and when is the match played?
Parma vs SSD Monza is in Serie A (Round 3). It is played on 2026-09-06, with kick-off at 13:00:00 UTC. Both teams come in on 0 points after two matches, so it already feels like a must-get-something game.
Where to watch Parma vs SSD Monza?
Serie A matches are commonly shown on broadcasters like TNT Sports or discovery+ (UK coverage can vary by season), and official league partners in other regions. You may also find a livestream via licensed bookmakers such as bet365, depending on your location and account status.
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