Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction: Can Bologna end their scoring drought? (Serie A, 2026-09-06)
Bologna is well-positioned to claim victory at home against Sassuolo, especially given their recent head-to-head dominance. Bologna has not lost to Sassuolo in their last five encounters, including a recent win in their last meeting. While both teams have struggled lately, Bologna's advantage at home, where they’ve historically won 4 out of the last 11 matchups against Sassuolo, makes them the favorites. Additionally, Sassuolo's dismal away form, with no wins in their last nine matches, adds to the likelihood of a home win. Backing Bologna for the full-time result appears a wise choice in this matchup.
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Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Bologna vs Sassuolo. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Bologna vs Sassuolo is set for 2026-09-06 in Serie A, Round 3, with kick-off at 16:00 UTC. The SmartBet computer model leans Bologna in the Full Time Result market, but it’s a cautious call at 2/5 confidence. The model gives Bologna a 48.02% win chance, while the odds imply 47.92%, so the edge is tiny at +0.21% expected value. Can Bologna finally score after three blanks, or will Sassuolo’s away struggles keep rolling? With these prices, the home win is the small-value lean.
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The Oddspedia community is also siding with Bologna in the Full Time Result market. It’s 14 out of 20 picks on the home win at 2.05, which is a solid majority. That makes sense, even with Bologna sitting on 0 points, because the head-to-head has been kind to them lately. Bologna are unbeaten in the last five meetings, and they also haven’t lost to Sassuolo in the last three home H2Hs. Will the crowd be right again, or is this the week Sassuolo nick something on the road?
Consensus
6
Community Tips
92
Bologna form check: Can the goals arrive?
Bologna have started poorly in Serie A with 2 played, 2 losses, and 0 points. Their last five reads WLLLL, and they’ve lost four in a row. The big worry is up front: 0 goals per match so far, plus a three-game scoreless streak. They do have the ball though, averaging 58% possession and 14 shots, but only 3.5 on target, so it’s been wasteful. Defensively it’s not a collapse, with 1 conceded per match, but one mistake keeps costing them. Can Bernardeschi and Ferguson unlock this?
Sassuolo form check: More punch, shaky balance
Sassuolo sit above Bologna early on with 3 points from 2 matches, and their last five is LWLWD. They look much livelier in attack, scoring 1.50 goals per match from 20.50 shots and 7.50 on target. That’s a lot of threat, even with just 44% average possession. The flip side is defensive risk, as they also concede 1.50 per match, and their games have been open with 100% landing Over 2.5 Goals so far. Away form is the red flag though: nine away without a win. Can they break that streak here?
Bologna vs Sassuolo Odds: Home side edged
The odds make Bologna favourites at 2.05, with the Draw at 3.60 and Sassuolo at 4.15. That lines up with a close game rather than a walkover. The Asian Handicap -0.5 on Bologna is 2.00, while Sassuolo +0.5 is 1.88, so the market slightly prefers Sassuolo to avoid defeat. Goals pricing is tight too: Over 2.5 at 1.96 and Under 2.5 at 1.98, basically a coin-flip call.
Bologna vs Sassuolo Predicted Lineups: Shape and key men
Bologna are tipped to line up 4-2-3-1 under Domenico Tedesco, with Skorupski in goal. Holm and Bonkano should provide the full-back width, while Pobega and Ferguson sit as the double pivot to keep control. Bernardeschi is the headline creator in the attacking line, with Odgaard and Cambiaghi offering runs around him. Piccoli leads the line and needs service early. Sassuolo are set for a 4-3-3 under Alberto Aquilani, with Turati in goal. Thorstvedt, Lipani, and Ghion form the midfield trio, aiming to feed Volpato, Bowie, and Dominguez. Berardi is listed as a top scorer but has only one appearance so far, so watch his minutes.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8
|
Bologna
|
11
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
16:14
|
L
W
W
W
W
?
|
17
| |
17
|
Sassuolo
|
11
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
16:29
|
L
L
L
L
L
?
|
8
| |
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FAQ Bologna vs Sassuolo
Who will win between Bologna and Sassuolo?
The SmartBet model slightly favours Bologna to win, with a 48.02% probability. The odds also lean Bologna, but only narrowly. It’s not a high-confidence spot because Bologna have not scored in three straight games.
What is the best bet for Bologna and Sassuolo?
The top consensus pick is Full Time Result: Bologna at odds of 2.05. The computer model also points the same way with a small +0.21% expected value. It’s a slim edge, so sensible staking matters.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer model prediction. It simulates match outcomes and turns them into probabilities for betting markets. Here it rates Bologna to win at 48.02% with a 2/5 confidence score.
Where and when is the match played?
Bologna vs Sassuolo is in Serie A, Round 3. It is played on 2026-09-06 with kick-off at 16:00 UTC. Bologna are the home team for this fixture.
Where to watch Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Serie A is often shown on broadcasters like TNT Sports or discovery+ in the UK, depending on the rights for the season. Some bookmakers, such as bet365, may also offer live streaming if you have an account and meet their viewing rules.
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