Sturm Graz vs NK Celje Prediction: Europa League Round 4 nerves?
Sturm Graz's recent form shows a mix of results, with a struggling defense hinting at vulnerabilities. On the other hand, NK Celje arrives with a more consistent performance in their last five matches, including a solid draw against tougher opposition. Historically, these teams have had underwhelming attacking displays, suggesting a low-scoring game, which might favor NK Celje's resilience. The Double Chance bet on X2 provides excellent value, given Celje's capacity to steal points away and Sturm's difficulties at home. Overall, taking the X2 option is a smart move that capitalizes on Celje's current form and Sturm Graz's inconsistencies.
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Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Sturm Graz vs NK Celje. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Sturm Graz vs NK Celje is set for 2026-11-05 in the Europa League (Round 4), with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Our computer model goes against the crowd and points to Double Chance: X2. It gives this outcome a 56.89% chance, while the odds imply only 40.82%, so the value looks strong at +39.37% EV. Sturm are solid at home, yet Celje are on a four-game unbeaten run and have not lost in four away trips. Could this turn into a stubborn, points-sharing night?
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The community is leaning hard towards a home win. The top consensus tip is Full Time Result: Sturm Graz at 1.65, backed by 22 of 24 users. That makes sense with Sturm sitting on 4 points after three rounds, while Celje have only 1. Also, the only recent head-to-head ended 3-0 to Sturm. Still, isn’t it worth noting Celje are unbeaten in four, and unbeaten in four away too? If you follow the crowd, you’re betting on the home edge staying strong.
Consensus
3
Community Tips
103
Sturm Graz form check: home strength matters
Sturm Graz come in with WWDLD in their last five, which is decent without being perfect. In the Europa League table they have 4 points from 3 games (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss), so they are still in the mix. The big hook is home form: seven straight home games unbeaten, and no home goals conceded this season. Oumar Diakite leads their Europa League scoring with 1 goal in 3 appearances. Also, their games go Over 2.5 in 48%, so goals are possible, but control at the back is the key.
NK Celje form check: stubborn away side
NK Celje’s recent form reads DDWDW, and it lines up with the match facts: they have not lost in their last four matches. They are also unbeaten in their last four away games, which is a real boost ahead of this trip. In the Europa League standings they have just 1 point from 3 games (0 wins), so they need results fast. Their listed top scorers in this competition are still on 0 goals, including Blaz Kramer and Armandas Kucys, so finishing has to improve. BTTS away is 58%, so they often trade goals on the road.
Sturm Graz vs NK Celje odds: home win favoured
Bookmakers price Sturm Graz at 1.65 to win, with the Draw at 4.70 and NK Celje at 6.00, so the home side are clear favourites. The Asian Handicap line is -1 at 1.85 versus +1 at 2.05, which suggests a one-goal game is very possible. For totals, Over 3 and Under 3 are both 1.93, so the market is split on whether we get 3 goals or fewer. That fits the idea of a tight match with moments of quality.
Sturm Graz vs NK Celje predicted line-ups: shapes and key men
Sturm Graz are listed in a 3-4-2-1 under Fabio Ingolitsch, with Helac in goal and a back three of Malic, Quarshie, and Koller. The wing-back roles look important for balance, while Seidl and Matoshi should support Beganovic up top. For Celje, Zoran Zeljkovic has Leban in goal, with Zuzek, Bejger, and Calusic in defence, and a midfield group that includes Kvesic, Verbic, and Seslar. Up front, Kucys and Dukuly are named, with Ivansek also providing threat. Will Celje’s wide players get room, or will Sturm’s back three shut the doors?
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24
|
Sturm Graz
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
3:6
|
D
L
W
L
?
|
4
| |
25
|
NK Celje
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
5:9
|
L
L
D
W
?
|
4
| |
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FAQ Sturm Graz vs NK Celje
Who will win between Sturm Graz and NK Celje?
Odds favour Sturm Graz at 1.65, and they have strong home trends plus a 3-0 head-to-head win in 2018. Still, Celje are unbeaten in four games and four away matches, so an upset or draw cannot be ruled out.
What is the best bet for Sturm Graz and NK Celje?
The computer model’s top pick is Double Chance: X2. It rates it at 56.89% versus 40.82% implied by odds, giving +39.37% expected value. It’s a value-driven play, even with Sturm priced as favourites.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction. It simulates match outcomes and converts them into probabilities. Then it compares those probabilities to the odds to find value bets, like when the model chance is higher than the market’s.
Where and when is the match played?
Sturm Graz vs NK Celje is in the Europa League (Round 4). The match is on 2026-11-05, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Sturm are the home team for this fixture.
Where to watch Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?
Europa League matches are often shown on major sports broadcasters and their streaming apps, depending on your country (for example TNT Sports, Sky-style partners, or local rights holders). You may also find live streams via licensed bookmakers like bet365 where available.
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