Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction: Can Toulouse keep their unbeaten run going? (Ligue 1, 2026-10-25)
Toulouse has a solid record against Troyes, particularly at home, winning six of their last nine encounters. With Troyes currently on a troubling five-match losing streak and struggling to find the net, their chances of reversing this trend seem slim. Toulouse's form has been steady, not losing in their last four games, which adds to the confidence in their ability to at least secure a draw or a win. Given the context and Troyes' inability to score recently, the Double Chance: X2 bet feels compelling. It's a smart play, balancing the likelihood of a draw or an away win, especially considering Toulouse's historical dominance in this matchup.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Toulouse vs Troyes. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Toulouse vs Troyes is set for Ligue 1 Round 8 on 2026-10-25, with kick-off at 16:15 UTC. Our computer model leans to Double Chance: X2, and it does it with max confidence at 5/5. The model puts this outcome at 60.50%, while the odds imply just 43.10%, which creates a chunky +EV of 40.37%. Sounds bold with Toulouse favoured, right? Still, Troyes can make life awkward if this turns scrappy, and a draw is always live in a one-goal game.
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The community is pretty clear here. The top consensus tip is Full Time Result: Toulouse at 1.57, with 7 of 8 users backing the home win. And honestly, it fits the table and the form. Toulouse have not lost in their last 4 games, while Troyes come in on five straight losses and have not scored in their last 3 matches. The only worry? Toulouse have failed to score in 2 of their 3 home league matches, so are you comfortable taking a short home price if it turns into a grind?
Consensus
7
Community Tips
62
Toulouse form analysis: Can they turn draws into wins?
Toulouse come into this one with form of LDWDW and they sit 12th with 9 points from 7 matches (2-3-2). They are hard to beat right now, unbeaten in their last 4, and the H2H is kind too, with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 meetings. Goals could arrive as well, since 71% of their matches have gone Over 2.5. Casper Tengstedt is the big threat, with 5 goals in 5 appearances. Can he strike early and settle everyone down at home?
Troyes form analysis: Where do the goals come from?
Troyes are in a rough spot, with LLLLL in their last five and only 4 points from 7 matches (1-1-5). Even worse, they have not managed to score in their last 3 games, and their top scorer is Antoine Mille with just 1 goal. That tells the story. The H2H is also against them, with no wins in the last 5 meetings and a heavy 4-1 loss the last time these sides met. Can Troyes simply keep it tight and sneak a draw?
Toulouse vs Troyes odds: Home win leads the board
Bookmakers price Toulouse as clear favourites at 1.57, with the Draw at 4.70 and Troyes at 6.50. The Asian Handicap -1 on Toulouse is 1.89, which hints the market expects a possible two-goal margin, but it is not a lock. For goals, Over 3.0 is 2.00 and Under 3.0 is 1.91, so the line is right on the fence. With Toulouse’s high Over 2.5 rate, do you fancy goals or a controlled home win?
Toulouse vs Troyes predicted lineups: Two 4-2-3-1 shapes
Toulouse are expected to line up 4-2-3-1 under Jens Berthel Askou, with Guillaume Restes in goal. The back four should be Messali, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, and Tape. Casseres Jr and Sigur look set to sit as the double pivot, then Donnum and Jorgensen support the attack with Russell-Rowe also in the front line. The key man is Casper Tengstedt up top after 5 goals in 5 appearances. Troyes should also go 4-2-3-1 for Stephane Dumont, with Beach in goal and Ripart leading the line, supported by Mille and Ifnaoui. Can Troyes’ midfield pair Diop and Dermane slow the supply?
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12
|
Toulouse
|
10
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
15:14
|
D
W
D
L
W
?
|
13
| |
17
|
Troyes
|
10
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
7:17
|
L
L
D
W
L
?
|
8
| |
Oddspedia Tipster Competitions
Monthly Tipster Competition
Yearly Tipster Competition
Bundesliga Competition
La Liga Competition
EPL Competition
Get a free bet for Toulouse vs Troyes
FAQ Toulouse vs Troyes
Who will win between Toulouse and Troyes?
Toulouse are the bookmakers’ favourite at 1.57 and they have a strong home H2H record. Still, the SmartBet model leans to X2 on Double Chance at 60.50%, so it expects Troyes can steal a draw or even shock it.
What is the best bet for Toulouse and Troyes?
The SmartBet pick is Double Chance: X2 with 5/5 confidence. It shows 60.50% model probability versus 43.10% implied by odds, giving +EV of 40.37%. The community, though, prefers Toulouse to win.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction that simulates match outcomes and turns them into probabilities. It then compares those probabilities to bookmaker odds to spot value bets, like a positive expected value (+EV) edge.
Where and when is the match played?
Toulouse vs Troyes is played in Ligue 1, Round 8. The match date is 2026-10-25 and kick-off is set for 16:15 UTC. Toulouse are the home side for this fixture.
Where to watch Toulouse vs Troyes?
Broadcast rights vary by country, but Ligue 1 is often shown on major sports networks and official league partners. You can also check bet365, which may offer a livestream for eligible users, plus live in-play stats.
Sign up for the all new Oddspedia newsletter and the latest USA betting offers.
By submitting your email, you give us consent to contact you for marketing purposes.
