NFL MVP Odds 2026: Joe Burrow the New Betting Favorite

The 2026 NFL season has passed the midway mark, and the NFL MVP odds race is shaping up as a tight battle between Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow. Allen was the betting favorite through the first half of the season, until Burrow surpassed him with dominant efforts in Weeks 8 and 9.

Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence round out the leading group, with NFL odds for their MVP candidacy ranging from +450 to +800 ahead of Week 11.

Outside contenders include Drake Maye, Jared Goff, and Jahmyr Gibbs, but they sit well behind Allen and Purdy.

We break down the entire NFL MVP odds market from the best sportsbooks and give our potential sleeper picks below. Remember to make your NFL picks with us all season long.

🏈 2026-27 NFL MVP Odds

Player	Position	Odds	Implied Probability
Joe Burrow	QB	+185	35.09%
Josh Allen	QB	+240	29.41%
Brock Purdy	QB	+450	18.18%
Jordan Love	QB	+650	13.33%
Trevor Lawrence	QB	+800	11.11%
Caleb Williams	QB	+1200	7.69%
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	+2500	3.85%
Jared Goff	QB	+3000	3.23%
Kenneth Walker III	RB	+4000	2.44%
Patrick Mahomes	QB	+4000	2.44%

NFL MVP odds provided by bet365 – accurate as of November 11

Biggest Movers in the 2026 NFL MVP odds after Week 8

The NFL MVP race has shifted heading into Week 10, with Joe Burrow taking over as the new leader after strong performances in consecutive starts. Burrow has seen his odds shorten from +500 to +185 in just two weeks, strengthening his position among the leading contenders. Jordan Love has also saw his odds shorten considerably, while Kenneth Walker III is into the top-10 for the second time this season.

• Joe Burrow is the new NFL MVP odds leader after another productive outing helped Cincinnati secure a 34-17 win over Atlanta. The Bengals quarterback completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns, adding a rushing score without throwing an interception. His odds have shortened from +500 to +185, putting him ahead of the rest of the field. Burrow had an even bigger performance the previous week, throwing for 462 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for the overtime winner against Tennessee.
• Jordan Love has made a significant move in the MVP market, with his odds shortening from +3000 to +650. He was outstanding in Green Bay’s 45-27 win over New England, completing 23 of 29 passes for 372 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Love also added 13 rushing yards and a score, finishing with four total touchdowns. The performance continued a strong stretch for the Packers quarterback, who has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his last two games.
• Jahmyr Gibbs is also gaining ground, shortening from +4000 to +2500 as he makes a push to become the first running back to win NFL MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Gibbs scored a rushing touchdown in Detroit’s 19-9 victory over Miami last week, finishing with 74 yards on 20 carries. While that was a quieter outing than his previous performance against Minnesota, when he rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown, his consistent production keeps him in the conversation. A strong finish to the season could make him a serious contender for the award.

🏆 NFL MVP odds favorites

Joe Burrow | +185 odds to win NFL MVP

Joe Burrow has helped the Cincinnati Bengals win five straight games and improve to 6-2 heading into Week 10. Through eight games, he has completed 219 of 296 passes (74%) for 2,386 yards, 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. His last two performances have been particularly impressive, combining for 733 passing yards and seven touchdowns, including a five-TD outing against Tennessee.

Burrow has climbed to the top of the NFL MVP odds, shortening to +185. Improved protection has played a role in his resurgence, with Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims among the heaviest players in the NFL, providing a formidable presence up front. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase has also gained ground in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, shortening to +1,500 after another productive performance against Atlanta.

Josh Allen | +240 odds to win NFL MVP

Josh Allen remains firmly in the NFL MVP odds race after leading the Buffalo Bills to a 23-6 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. Allen completed 21 of 31 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown, adding 15 rushing yards. Through eight games, he has thrown for 2,027 yards and 12 touchdowns, with six interceptions, while adding nine rushing scores.

The Bills improved to 7-1 and remain among the leading Super Bowl odds contenders at +550. Allen and Buffalo visit the New York Jets (2-7) in Week 10 on November 15. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites, and our NFL Week 10 predictions back Buffalo to cover against a Jets team that has lost four straight.

NFL MVP odds sleeper pick

Dak Prescott | +10000 odds to win NFL MVP

Dak Prescott remains worth considering as a long-shot sleeper in the NFL MVP odds. Dallas has struggled to meet expectations, sitting at 4-5, and head coach Brian Schottenheimer has appeared on the next NFL coach fired odds board. However, Prescott has the pedigree and offensive weapons, including CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, to turn things around.

Through nine games, he has thrown for 2,381 yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. His 335-yard, two-touchdown performance in a Week 9 win over Indianapolis was an encouraging response to the previous week’s loss. Prescott is still a major longshot, but a few more strong performances and the narrative of leading America’s Team back to the playoffs could strengthen his MVP candidacy.

📖 How to read NFL MVP odds

Reading NFL MVP odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet. For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600.

🤔 Who decides who wins the NFL MVP Award?

For the NFL MVP Award, there is a panel of 50 AP sportswriters who regularly cover the NFL that ultimately decide which of the NFL MVP candidates win the award. The award is then announced in the week leading up to the Super Bowl at the annual NFL Honors event.

The votes by the sportswriters and media members are cast at the end of the regular season and before the playoffs begin.

💰 How to bet on the NFL MVP odds

Placing a futures bet on the NFL MVP odds is a five-step process that focuses on finding the best value.

1. Choose a Bookmaker and Compare Odds

Start by comparing MVP odds across multiple legal sportsbooks (e.g., bet365, Stake). Odds for longshot candidates can vary significantly (+2000 vs. +2500), directly impacting your potential return. Selecting the best price ensures maximum value for your bet.

2. Sign Up and Deposit Funds

Complete the online registration with the chosen bookmaker, providing necessary personal details for identity verification. When depositing funds, consider any available welcome bonuses, as these offers can effectively reduce the risk on your initial portfolio investment.

3. Locate the Futures Market

Once logged in, navigate the bookmaker’s menu to find the market. The path is typically: NFL → Futures → Awards → MVP.

4. Select Your Bets and Enter Stakes

Identify your 3-4 preferred longshot players and click on their odds to add them to your bet slip. For each selection, enter the same wagering amount (stake) to create your diversified portfolio. It is crucial to place these as individual straight bets, not a parlay.

5. Review and Place the Bet

Before finalizing, review the bet slip to confirm the players, the locked-in odds, and the total amount risked. Once satisfied, submit the bets to secure your longshot odds for the entire NFL season.

💸 Key Betting Strategies for NFL MVP Odds

The following three strategies focus on maximizing value, managing risk and exploiting market inefficiencies across the NFL Season.

1. The Preseason Portfolio (Maximizing Odds)

The core of this strategy is maximizing initial value by placing multiple, small, diversified bets immediately after the odds are released. Your focus should be on 3 to 4 longshot players who are in situations offering high-volume opportunities (e.g., a lock as a starting quarterback heading into training camp). By selecting odds of +2000 or higher, you are constructing a portfolio that diversifies risk. If any one of your selections breaks out, the return on the small, pooled stake is massive.

• Example: Placing $10 on four different players —Player A (+2500), B (+4000), C (+2000), and D (+3000) results in a total risk of $40.

2. Dynamic In-Season Monitoring and Adjustment (Identifying Breakouts)

The second stage involves rigorous monitoring of your longshots during the first half of the season (Weeks 1-8) to identify an odds-shortening breakout. You are tracking a sustained run of excellent production (e.g., a QB consistently throwing two or more touchdowns or an RB/WR averaging over 100 scrimmage yards per game). This breakout performance will dramatically shift the market and prepare you for the third strategic step. Volume and consistency are the only metrics that matter here, as they validate the initial preseason bet.

• Example: Your $10 bet on Player B at +4000 sees their odds plummet to +300 after a dominant stretch where they lead all players in offensive metrics, confirming their status as an award contender.

3. The Calculated Mid-Season Hedge (Guaranteeing Profit)

This final, crucial strategy is pure risk management designed to lock in a guaranteed net profit. If your initial longshot has become a top favorite, you identify their closest rival and calculate the precise stake needed to place a bet on that rival. This is the “hedge bet.” The goal is to ensure that regardless of which of the two top candidates ultimately wins the award, you walk away with a guaranteed, significant return on your small initial investment, effectively taking risk off the table late in the season.

• Example: With Player B at +300, and their rival, Player E, at +500, you calculate an $80 stake on Player E. This maneuver guarantees a net profit of at least $320 (if B wins) or $390 (if E wins), securing a massive return on your initial $40 risk.

📈 NFL MVP betting trends

When wagering on the NFL MVP odds or any other NFL player award futures, it is always wise to research betting trends that have been established over the years. Here is a look at some key trends to consider before placing this season’s bets.

• Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford are the only NFC QBs to win NFL MVP since 2016.
• The last four of six NFL MVP winners have been repeat winners.
• 18 of the last 19 NFL MVP winners — including the last 13 in a row — have been quarterbacks.
• A defensive player hasn’t won NFL MVP since 1986.
• Aaron Rodgers is the only player since 2010 to win back-to-back MVPs.

🏆 Previous NFL MVP winners by position

Our best NFL betting sites

To make sure you get the most value on your NFL odds, go to the best NFL betting sites prior to placing your wagers throughout the season.

Want more insights on NFL betting markets?

Take a look at other Oddspedia Insights articles that give you everything you need in order to become a more informed bettor.

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• NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
• NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
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🏆 Previous NFL MVP winners

❓ NFL MVP Odds FAQs

Who won NFL MVP in 2025?

Matt Stafford won the NFL MVP in 2025 after an impressive season with the Los Angeles Rams. Despite that, Stafford begins the 2026 NFL season with just the eighth-shortest NFL MVP odds.

When will the NFL MVP award be decided?

The winner of the NFL MVP award will be selected at the end of the NFL regular season. The winner is announced at the NFL Honors event, which takes place each year during Super Bowl week. All other individual awards are also presented at NFL Honors.

How is the NFL MVP decided?

The NFL MVP award is decided by a panel of 50 AP sportswriters who regularly cover the NFL that vote on the award. The award is then announced in the week leading up to the Super Bowl at the annual NFL Honors event. The votes by the sportswriters and media members are cast at the end of the regular season and before the playoffs begin.