2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: Miami QB Overtakes Smith as New Favorite

The Heisman Trophy odds market gives fans and bettors an early look at which college football stars are generating the most buzz heading into – and throughout – the NCAA football season. From elite quarterbacks also competing in the Davey O’Brien Award odds to breakout skill players, the race shifts weekly based on performance, hype, and NCAAF schedule strength, making it one of the most dynamic betting storylines in sports.

This year’s Heisman Trophy odds are as competitive as ever, with quarterbacks CJ Carr and Arch Manning as the preseason favorites. Check back each week to see how the race plays out and our updated NCAAF picks.

🏈 Heisman Trophy odds contenders

Player	Odds	Implied Probability
Darian Mensah	+160	38.46%
Jeremiah Smith	+300	25.00%
Malachi Toney	+340	22.73%
CJ Carr	+1100	8.33%
Trinidad Chambliss	+1200	7.69%
Jesse Legree	+2000	4.76%
Drew Mestemaker	+4000	2.44%
Gunner Stockton	+4500	2.17%
Sam Leavitt	+4500	2.17%
Gio Lopez	+7500	1.32%

Heisman Trophy odds provided by bet365 – accurate as of Nov. 2

Heisman Trophy 2026 favorites

Darian Mensah odds to win the Heisman Trophy | +160

Darian Mensah has taken over as the new Heisman Trophy favorite after another impressive performance in Week 9. He completed 22 of 29 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in Miami’s hard-fought 38-35 win over North Carolina on October 31. Mensah delivered when it mattered most, connecting with Malachi Toney for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Hurricanes improved to 8-0 and remained unbeaten.

Mensah has now thrown for 2,425 yards and 25 touchdowns against just one interception this season, completing 80.7% of his passes. His efficiency and consistency have helped Miami maintain its unbeaten record and propelled him to the top of the Heisman Trophy odds. With the Hurricanes still in control of their ACC campaign and a near lock in our CFP printable bracket, Mensah is now the player the rest of the field must chase.

Wide receiver Malachi Toney has been instrumental in Mensah’s success. Toney followed his breakout performance against Pittsburgh with another strong outing in Week 9, recording seven catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns against North Carolina. His continued production makes him a contender to watch in the Biletnikoff Award odds and the Heisman race.

Jeremiah Smith odds to win the Heisman Trophy | +300

Jeremiah Smith had a productive outing against USC on October 31, but it wasn’t enough to prevent Ohio State from suffering a 30-18 loss. The Buckeyes star caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown, giving him 62 receptions for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games. Despite the strong target volume, Ohio State’s defeat and the uncertainty surrounding its quarterback situation have affected Smith’s Heisman Trophy chances.

Smith’s Heisman Trophy odds have drifted from +110 to +300, leaving him behind Mensah, who has taken over as the new favorite. Julian Sayin’s throwing-arm injury remains a significant concern, with the quarterback expected to miss several weeks. Smith can still make a push for the award, but he’ll need to maintain his production with backup options under center.

The Buckeyes remain firmly in the CFP projections conversation, but their ability to maintain their offensive rhythm without Sayin will be crucial. Smith remains my pick in the Heisman Trophy odds, although his margin for error is shrinking.

Heisman Trophy sleeper pick

Trinidad Chambliss odds to win the Heisman Trophy | +1200

Trinidad Chambliss has regained ground in the Heisman Trophy race, with his odds shortening from +2500 to +1200 following Week 9. The improved price reflects renewed confidence in the Ole Miss quarterback after his strong response to the previous week’s loss to Texas.

Trinidad Chambliss is an increasingly attractive sleeper in the Heisman Trophy odds after rebounding from Ole Miss’ Week 8 loss to Texas. His price has shortened from +2500 to +1200 following the Rebels’ 45-15 win over Auburn on October 31. Chambliss threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 65 rushing yards and another score to deliver an impressive all-around performance.

Through eight games, Chambliss has totaled 2,189 passing yards and 18 touchdown passes, with eight interceptions. He has also contributed 199 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. His dual-threat ability gives him a path back into the Heisman conversation, but Ole Miss will need more statement wins down the stretch, starting with a major Week 10 matchup against Georgia.

Heisman Trophy – how the award is decided

The Heisman Trophy is awarded annually to the most outstanding player in college football and is decided by a voting panel of more than 900 media members from across the United States, along with all living former Heisman winners and one fan vote. Also, for the first time in 2026 fans will have a say in the Heisman Trophy odds. Fans can vote daily in the “Heisman Hopefuls” category and the top three vote getters are placed on the official ballot for the Heisman Trophy.

Once the final ballot is confirmed, Heisman voters rank their top three candidates, with points awarded on a 3-2-1 basis. The finalists are typically announced in early December, and the winner is crowned during the annual Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York City before the start of the College Football Playoff and bowl season.

How to read Heisman Trophy odds

Betting on the Heisman Trophy odds is quite simple. You are wagering on which player will win the Heisman Trophy, awarded annually to the most impactful player in all of college football.

For example, suppose you bet $10 on Notre Dame’s CJ Carr to win the Heisman at +750 odds, and he wins the award. In that case, you will take home $75 and receive your original wager of $10 back ($85 total payout).

If a more significant underdog wins the Heisman Trophy, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith at +1300 odds, you will win $130 if Smith gets the job done. The higher the odds, the bigger the payout and vice versa.

Heisman Trophy betting trends

• Quarterbacks dominate Heisman Trophy voting, winning the vast majority of awards in the modern era.
• Team success plays a major role, with winners typically coming from College Football Playoff contenders or top-10 ranked programs.
• Early-season breakout performances often drive sharp movement in Heisman Trophy odds before conference play begins.
• Efficiency metrics matter more than raw volume, with voters valuing touchdowns-to-turnover ratios and completion percentage.
• Signature “Heisman moments” in nationally televised games can swing momentum in the race quickly.
• Schools from the SEC and Big Ten have historically produced the most Heisman winners, reflecting consistent exposure in high-stakes, nationally televised games

Past Heisman Trophy winners

Heisman Trophy 2026 opening odds

The Heisman Trophy odds change with each drive, big play, and game, making it a fun season-long endeavor to track the top players in college football. It’s quite rare that a preseason favorite remains in that position all year and goes on to win the award. For reference, here’s how the Heisman Trophy odds looked when the opened in June.

Player	Odds	Implied Probability
CJ Carr	+750	11.76%
Arch Manning	+800	11.11%
Darian Mensah	+1100	8.33%
Trinidad Chambliss	+1100	8.33%
Jeremiah Smith	+1300	7.14%
Julian Sayin	+1300	7.14%
Dante Moore	+1300	7.14%
Josh Hoover	+1500	6.25%
Gunner Stockton	+1600	5.88%
Keelon Russell	+2200	4.35%

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❓ Heisman Trophy odds FAQs

How is the Heisman Trophy winner decided?

The Heisman Trophy is determined through a nationwide voting system that includes more than 900 media members, all living former winners, and one fan vote. Each voter submits a ranked ballot of three players, with points awarded on a 3-2-1 basis for first, second, and third place selections. The totals are then tabulated, and the player with the highest point total is named the winner during the December ceremony in New York City.

Which school has produced the most Heisman Trophy winners?

Historically, schools like Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama, and USC have produced the most Heisman winners, reflecting consistent elite recruiting and national exposure. These programs regularly compete in high-profile games that shape Heisman Trophy odds throughout the season. Their offensive systems also tend to generate the statistical production and highlight moments that voters heavily reward.

What factors influence Heisman Trophy betting odds?

Heisman Trophy betting odds are heavily influenced by quarterback play, team success, and early-season momentum. Players from College Football Playoff contenders tend to see their odds shorten quickly as national exposure increases. Voter perception, signature performances in marquee games, and narrative-driven storylines also play a major role in shaping weekly odds movement.

Can non-quarterbacks realistically win the Heisman?

While quarterbacks dominate modern Heisman voting, non-quarterbacks can still break through under the right circumstances. Only a small handful of non-QBs have won in the 21st century, but elite wide receivers and two-way stars have recently proven it is possible. These players typically need historic production, highlight-reel moments, and a top-ranked team to seriously compete in the Heisman Trophy odds race.