Carabao Cup Winner Odds 2026/27: Man City Favourites After Arsenal Exit

Manchester City have emerged as clear favourites in the Carabao Cup winner odds after a dramatic fourth round saw both Arsenal and Chelsea eliminated. The holders survived a penalty shootout against Brighton, while Liverpool knocked out Chelsea at Anfield to establish themselves as City’s closest challengers.

Everton and Bournemouth have also reached the quarter-finals after impressive victories over Newcastle United and Aston Villa respectively. Meanwhile, League Two Fleetwood Town’s stunning elimination of Arsenal and Bradford City’s progress have kept the prospect of a lower-league cup run alive. Could either side make it all the way to Wembley?

We compare the latest EFL Cup winner odds, assess the leading contenders and revisit our original prediction for Wembley. You can also explore a variety of football odds across domestic and European competitions at Oddspedia.

Carabao Cup winner odds 2026/27

The table below compares all eight remaining contenders in the latest EFL Cup winner odds following the conclusion of the fourth round.

Team	Fractional odds	Decimal odds	Implied probability
Manchester City	6/4	2.50	40.00%
Liverpool	2/1	3.00	33.33%
Everton	5/1	6.00	16.67%
Bournemouth	10/1	11.00	9.09%
Sunderland	14/1	15.00	6.67%
Crystal Palace	14/1	15.00	6.67%
Bradford City	40/1	41.00	2.44%
Fleetwood Town	100/1	101.00	0.99%

Odds provided by bet365, accurate as of 30 October 2026.

Latest Carabao Cup winner odds update

30 October 2026: The Carabao Cup quarter-final line-up is complete, with Liverpool knocking out Chelsea at Anfield and Manchester City progressing to the last eight. City have shortened from 9/4 to 6/4 following the elimination of two major contenders in Arsenal and Chelsea, while Liverpool are now their closest challengers. League One Bradford City and League Two Fleetwood Town are also through, setting up the possibility of another major cup upset.

28 October 2026: Arsenal suffered a shock fourth-round exit against League Two Fleetwood Town, losing 5-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw. Manchester City are now the Carabao Cup favourites at 9/4, with Liverpool shortening from 6/1 to 3/1 and Chelsea moving into 5/1. Bradford City also reached the quarter-finals after beating Peterborough 2-0, while several leading contenders are still awaiting their fourth-round ties.

Carabao Cup contenders analysed

Manchester City and Liverpool lead the Carabao Cup winner odds after surviving difficult fourth-round ties, while Everton and Bournemouth have emerged as their closest challengers. The crossed-out odds show prices from the previous bet365 update on 28 October 2026.

Manchester City survive Brighton scare to reach quarter-finals (9/4 🔻 6/4)

Manchester City are favourites to retain the Carabao Cup after surviving a penalty shootout against Brighton in the fourth round. Enzo Maresca’s side drew 2-2 at the Etihad Stadium before winning 4-3 on penalties, with goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli making two crucial saves. City are looking to retain the trophy after Nico O’Reilly scored twice in their 2-0 victory over Arsenal at Wembley last season, securing the club’s ninth League Cup title.

City began their defence with a convincing 5-0 victory over Norwich City in the third round. They also won their opening seven Premier League matches before suffering a 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa last weekend, where Nicolas Jackson scored twice. Their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed again by Brighton, although the holders showed enough composure to survive another difficult encounter.

Maresca’s side now face League One Bradford City at home in the quarter-finals, offering a favourable opportunity to reach the last four. City have considerable squad depth and recent experience of winning this competition, but their last two performances suggest they are not quite as convincing as their early-season results indicated.

Liverpool edge past Chelsea on penalties (3/1 🔻 2/1)

Liverpool are second favourites after eliminating Chelsea in a dramatic penalty shootout at Anfield. Cody Gakpo’s first-half penalty cancelled out Morgan Rogers’ opener before Andoni Iraola’s side prevailed 6-5 on spot-kicks. Liverpool previously reached the fourth round with a 3-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur and are pursuing a record-extending 11th League Cup triumph.

Liverpool have improved after an inconsistent start to the Premier League campaign. Sunday’s 2-0 victory over Brighton moved them into fourth place with 15 points from eight games, with Alexander Isak scoring for the third consecutive league match. Their recent performances suggest Iraola is beginning to establish greater consistency, although Chelsea caused plenty of problems during their cup encounter.

The Reds now host Bournemouth in the quarter-finals, presenting another demanding assignment against Premier League opposition. Liverpool have considerable experience in this competition, winning their tenth trophy in 2024 before losing the following season’s final to Newcastle United. Their improving league form and ability to negotiate difficult knockout ties make them serious challengers to Manchester City.

Everton impress against Newcastle to reach last eight (16/1 🔻 5/1)

Everton produced an impressive fourth-round performance to beat Newcastle United 3-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Thursday night. James Garner opened the scoring before Hayden Hackney doubled the lead just before half-time, with Thierno Barry adding a third after the break. Dan Burn’s late consolation did little to threaten Everton’s progress, giving David Moyes’ side a place in the quarter-finals.

The victory was a welcome response to consecutive Premier League defeats, including last weekend’s 2-0 loss to Arsenal. Everton had previously beaten Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 in the third round, but their performance against Newcastle was considerably more convincing. Hackney’s contribution from midfield and Barry’s attacking movement offered encouragement after a difficult spell in the league.

Everton now travel to League Two Fleetwood Town, who eliminated Arsenal in one of the biggest shocks of the competition. It is an excellent opportunity for the Toffees to reach their first League Cup semi-final since 2016, although Fleetwood have already demonstrated the danger of underestimating lower-league opposition.

Bournemouth continue impressive run with Villa victory (25/1 🔻 10/1)

Bournemouth have emerged as dangerous outsiders in the Carabao Cup winner odds after an emphatic 3-0 fourth-round victory over Aston Villa. Amine Adli opened the scoring after just seven minutes before Lewis Cook and Alvaro Rodriguez completed a convincing win. The Cherries had previously beaten Lincoln City 4-0 in the third round and have now scored seven goals without reply across their last two cup fixtures.

Their latest success followed an equally impressive 3-0 Premier League victory at Manchester United, underlining Bournemouth’s growing confidence. Beating Villa was particularly encouraging given that Unai Emery’s side had defeated Manchester City just days earlier. Bournemouth’s attacking performances have made them difficult opponents, with their ability to create chances and punish defensive mistakes proving particularly effective.

The challenge becomes considerably tougher in the quarter-finals, where Bournemouth travel to Liverpool. Anfield represents a difficult assignment, especially against opponents beginning to find consistency under Andoni Iraola. However, Bournemouth’s recent victories over Manchester United and Aston Villa suggest they are capable of troubling another leading contender.

Who else could challenge in the EFL Cup winner odds?

Sunderland and Crystal Palace are both available at 14/1 and will face each other in the quarter-finals. Sunderland recovered from their difficult Premier League start to beat Brentford 3-2, scoring three first-half goals through Chemsdine Talbi, Timur Tutierov and Malick Fofana. Palace secured a narrower 1-0 victory at Fulham, with Eddie Nketiah scoring the winner. Their meeting at Selhurst Park guarantees that one of these clubs will reach the semi-finals.

Bradford City have also secured their place in the last eight following a 2-0 victory over Peterborough United. Goals from Macaulay Gillesphey and Adam Phillips sent the League One club into the quarter-finals for the first time since 2013. Bradford are available at 40/1 in the League Cup winner odds, although a trip to holders Manchester City represents an enormous challenge.

Fleetwood Town are the biggest outsiders at 100/1 after producing the competition’s standout result against Arsenal. The League Two side eliminated the Premier League champions 5-3 on penalties following a 1-1 draw, having already beaten Sheffield United in the previous round. They now host Everton with another opportunity to upset top-flight opposition, although David Moyes’ side will be determined to avoid a similar fate.

With Liverpool facing Bournemouth and Crystal Palace meeting Sunderland, at least two more Premier League clubs will be eliminated in the quarter-finals. Manchester City have the most favourable draw on paper against Bradford, while Everton will be confident of progressing past Fleetwood. Both lower-league clubs have already exceeded expectations, but reaching Wembley would require an extraordinary run.

Carabao Cup winner prediction

Manchester City (6/1 🔻 6/4)

Manchester City were my original selection at 6/1 and are now clear favourites at 6/4 following the elimination of Arsenal and Chelsea. I still favour the holders because of their squad depth, experience and ability to compete across multiple competitions. Their route to Wembley also looks more favourable, with a home quarter-final against League One Bradford City offering an excellent opportunity to reach the last four.

There are reasons for caution, particularly after City needed penalties to overcome Brighton and recently suffered their first Premier League defeat at Aston Villa. However, Enzo Maresca has enough quality throughout his squad to negotiate difficult knockout fixtures, and several potential rivals face tougher quarter-final assignments. The current 6/4 offers considerably less value than my original 6/1, but City’s position in the competition gives me no compelling reason to change the prediction.

Full Carabao Cup winner odds

What matters when betting on the Carabao Cup winner?

The League Cup winner odds can behave differently from other outright markets because squad rotation has a particularly big influence. Early-round ties are played alongside Premier League and European fixtures, so the strength of a club’s second-choice players can matter almost as much as its strongest starting XI.

The draw also carries plenty of weight. Unlike a league season, one difficult away tie can end a campaign immediately, while clubs handed successive home games against lower-division opposition can quickly move towards the latter stages.

It is therefore worth comparing prices as the draw develops. Our guide to the best football betting sites covers bookmakers offering domestic cup markets, while you can also check the latest best betting offers and available free bets.

How does the Carabao Cup work?

The Carabao Cup is open to all 92 clubs from the Premier League and EFL. Teams enter at different stages, with the competition narrowing through a series of knockout rounds before the final at Wembley.

Rounds one to five are decided over a single match. If the scores are level after 90 minutes, there is no extra time and the tie goes directly to penalties.

The semi-finals are different, with the final four playing over two legs. If the aggregate score is level after the second leg, extra time and penalties can be used to determine who reaches Wembley.

The winners also earn a place in the UEFA Conference League play-off round unless they qualify for European competition through another route.

Carabao Cup 2026/27 key dates

The 2026/27 Carabao Cup final will take place at Wembley Stadium on Sunday 21 March 2027.

Upcoming Fixtures

Carabao Cup winner odds FAQs

Who are the favourites to win the Carabao Cup?

Manchester City lead the 2026/27 Carabao Cup winner odds after progressing past Brighton on penalties, with Arsenal and Chelsea both eliminated in the fourth round. Liverpool are their closest challengers after knocking out Chelsea, while Everton and Bournemouth have moved into the next two places in the betting. All four are through to the quarter-finals, alongside Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Bradford City and Fleetwood Town.

Who won the Carabao Cup last season?

Manchester City won the 2025/26 Carabao Cup by beating Arsenal 2-0 in the final at Wembley. Nico O’Reilly scored both goals in the second half as Pep Guardiola’s side lifted the trophy for the ninth time in the club’s history, adding another title to an impressive record in the competition. The victory left City one behind Liverpool, who hold the competition record with ten League Cup wins.

When is the 2026/27 Carabao Cup final?

The 2026/27 Carabao Cup final will be played at Wembley Stadium on Sunday 21 March 2027. The quarter-finals are scheduled for December 2026, followed by two-legged semi-finals in January and February 2027 to decide which clubs reach Wembley. The final is traditionally one of the first major domestic trophies awarded during the English football season, with Manchester City entering this edition as defending champions.

How are draws decided in the Carabao Cup?

Carabao Cup ties from rounds one to five are decided in a single match, with penalties used if the score is level after 90 minutes rather than playing extra time. The semi-finals take place over two legs, with extra time and penalties available after the second leg if the aggregate score is level. The final also goes to extra time and then penalties if necessary, with no replay.

Are the Carabao Cup, EFL Cup and League Cup the same competition?

Yes, the Carabao Cup, EFL Cup and League Cup are different names used for the same English knockout competition involving clubs from the Premier League and English Football League. League Cup is its traditional generic name, while EFL Cup reflects the competition’s organiser and Carabao Cup comes from the current title sponsor. All three terms appear regularly in coverage of the tournament, including historical records and betting markets.