Nations League Winner Odds 2026/27: Can Spain Follow World Cup Glory?

The 2026/27 Nations League is underway, just two months after a World Cup that changed the picture at the top of the international game.

World champions Spain lead the market after winning all four of their matches and securing a quarter-final place. France are close behind following an unbeaten start under Zinedine Zidane, while defending champions Portugal have also qualified with a perfect record. England are approaching the knockout rounds after three consecutive wins, but Germany still have work to do.

Using the latest football odds, we assess the favourites, examine their progress through the league phase and revisit our Nations League winner prediction. For match-by-match selections, follow our latest Nations League predictions throughout the competition.

Nations League winner odds favourites

The table below compares the leading teams in the latest 2026/27 Nations League winner odds after the opening fixtures.

Team	Fractional odds	Decimal odds	Implied probability
Spain	2/1	3.00	33.33%
France	11/4	3.75	26.67%
England	9/2	5.50	18.18%
Portugal	5/1	6.00	16.67%
Germany	10/1	11.00	9.09%

Nations League winner odds provided by bet365, accurate as of 7 October 2026.

UEFA Nations League winner odds analysis

Below, we assess the leading contenders in the latest Nations League winner odds following the extended international break.

The crossed-out prices in the headings show the odds available at our previous update, highlighting how the Nations League winner odds have changed since then.

Spain qualify after extending unbeaten run (11/4 🔻 2/1)

Spain arrived as world champions after beating Argentina in the 2026 final and have carried that form into another strong Nations League campaign. They have also reached each of the previous three finals, winning the competition in 2023.

A 3-1 victory over Czechia was followed by a 2-1 comeback win in Croatia, where Mikel Merino scored twice after Ivan Perisic had given the hosts the lead. Spain have now won all four group matches and extended their unbeaten run to 42 games.

Qualification for the quarter-finals is already secure, with victories over England and Croatia giving Luis de la Fuente’s side complete control of Group A3. Their consistency, depth and recent tournament record make them worthy favourites to regain the trophy.

France finish Zidane’s first window unbeaten (3/1 🔻 11/4)

France have taken ten points from Zinedine Zidane’s first four matches after following victories over Türkiye and Belgium with a 1-1 draw against Italy and a 4-1 home win over Belgium.

The Belgium victory demonstrated the attacking depth available to Zidane. France trailed before scoring four times late on, with substitutes helping transform a difficult match into their most convincing performance of the campaign.

France lead Group A1 by three points and remain unbeaten under their new manager. There are still areas to improve, but producing such a convincing win after the frustrating Italy draw strengthened their position among the leading contenders.

England respond emphatically to opening defeat (11/2 🔻 9/2)

England’s opening 3-2 defeat to Spain exposed defensive weaknesses, but Thomas Tuchel’s side have responded with three consecutive victories and clean sheets.

A remarkable 7-0 win in Croatia was followed by a 3-0 victory over Czechia at Wembley. Harry Kane scored twice in both matches, while England have now found the net 14 times across their opening four fixtures.

Nine points leave England second in Group A3 and close to securing a quarter-final place. Spain remain in control of the group, but England’s improvement at both ends of the pitch suggests they can make a serious run in the knockout rounds.

Portugal book quarter-final place with perfect record (11/2 🔻 5/1)

Portugal are the only country to have won the Nations League twice, lifting the inaugural trophy in 2019 before beating Spain on penalties in the 2025 final.

They followed a 4-2 victory in Denmark with a 2-1 home win over Norway. Joao Cancelo cancelled out Norway’s opener before Goncalo Ramos scored the winner, securing Portugal’s fourth victory from four matches.

Qualification for the quarter-finals is already confirmed despite Cristiano Ronaldo’s absence from the latest fixtures. Portugal’s record in this competition and the range of attacking contributors available make them serious challengers to retain the trophy.

Germany remain inconsistent under Klopp (7/1 ▲ 10/1)

Germany are rebuilding under Jurgen Klopp following their early World Cup exit. A 2-0 victory over Serbia delivered Klopp’s first win, with Tom Bischof and Florian Wirtz providing greater attacking purpose than Germany had shown in their opening matches.

They were unable to build on that performance in Greece, where a goalless draw left them with just five points from four fixtures. Germany controlled periods of the match but again struggled to turn possession into enough clear opportunities.

Klopp’s side remain in contention for the quarter-finals, although they sit three points behind both Greece and the Netherlands. Their defensive improvement offers a foundation, but greater consistency in attack is required during the final two group matches.

Nations League winner prediction

Spain (3/1 🔻 2/1)

Spain were my pre-tournament Nations League winner prediction at 3/1. Four consecutive victories have secured their quarter-final place with two group matches remaining, and their current price has shortened to 2/1.

The selection was based on Spain’s settled system, squad depth and recent knockout experience. Those qualities have been evident throughout the group stage, with Luis de la Fuente able to rotate his team without disrupting its control or attacking threat.

Spain have already demonstrated that they can win both open contests and tighter matches requiring patience. Their balance and tournament pedigree give them the tools to challenge for another international trophy once the knockout rounds begin.

For more selections across the international schedule, our football accumulator tips cover the latest matches.

Live Nations League winner odds

How to bet on the Nations League winner

Nations League outright betting can move quickly because the six group matches are condensed into two international windows. Form, squad withdrawals and qualification scenarios can therefore have a bigger short-term effect on prices than in a club competition spread across an entire season.

It is worth comparing prices rather than taking the first odds available. Our guide to the best football betting sites covers bookmakers offering international football markets, while you can check the latest best betting offers separately.

You can also find available free bets before placing a wager. Always check the terms attached to any promotion and remember that outright prices can change significantly as the competition progresses.

How does the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League work?

League A contains 16 countries split across four groups of four. Each team plays the other three nations in its group home and away, giving them six league-phase matches.

The group winners and runners-up progress to the Nations League quarter-finals. Those ties are played over two legs, with each group winner seeded against a runner-up from a different section.

The four quarter-final winners then advance to the Nations League finals in June 2027. The semi-finals, third-place play-off and final are all single matches.

The group stage matters beyond deciding who challenges for the trophy. Teams finishing third in League A enter promotion/relegation play-offs, while the four bottom teams are relegated to League B for the next edition.

You can follow the latest fixtures, results and standings on our UEFA Nations League page throughout the 2026/27 competition.

Nations League 2026/27 groups

Nations League 2026/27 key dates

Next Fixtures

Nations League winner odds FAQs

Who are the favourites to win the Nations League?

Spain are favourites in the latest 2026/27 Nations League winner odds after winning their opening four matches and securing a quarter-final place. France follow after collecting ten points under Zinedine Zidane, with England and defending champions Portugal next in the betting. Germany complete the five leading contenders despite taking only five points from their first four fixtures.

Who won the last UEFA Nations League?

Portugal won the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League after drawing 2-2 with Spain in the final and winning the penalty shootout 5-3. They had previously beaten Germany in the semi-finals after overcoming Denmark across two quarter-final legs. The victory made Portugal the first country to win the competition twice, following their inaugural triumph in 2019.

How do teams qualify for the Nations League quarter-finals?

The top two countries in each of the four League A groups qualify for the Nations League quarter-finals. Group winners are seeded against runners-up from another section, with each tie played over two legs and the seeded team hosting the return fixture. The four winners progress to the Nations League finals, where the semi-finals and final are single matches.

When did the 2026/27 Nations League start?

The 2026/27 Nations League began on 24 September 2026, with six league-phase matchdays scheduled through to 17 November. The League A quarter-finals will be played over two legs in March 2027 after the top two teams qualify from each group. The four-team Nations League finals will then take place from 9 to 13 June 2027.