The 2025/26 NHL season got underway on Tuesday night, which means it’s ridiculously early to start thinking about teams clinching playoff berths in the spring. That doesn’t mean we won’t do it, however.
The Washington Capitals were the first team to clinch an NHL playoff berth last season, on March 20, with the Winnipeg Jets punching their ticket to the postseason on March 25. The other 14 playoff-bound teams then followed along by clinching over the next few weeks, including on the final day of the regular season.
With that in mind, which team will be the first to clinch an NHL postseason berth in 2025/26?
Below we’ll take a look at that question and discuss the theoretical odds for the first NHL team to clinch a playoff spot.
“That stability puts the Bolts in good position to outpace those rivals in the standings during the regular season."
To come up with these theoretical odds for this season’s first NHL team to lock up a postseason berth we’ve analyzed last season’s order of clinching for the 16 teams that made the playoffs, looked at the improvements that the NHL’s top teams have made and weighed the relative strength of each conference.
The odds displayed are purely speculative and intended for entertainment purposes only.
First NHL Team to Clinch Playoff Spot Odds
| First NHL Team to Clinch Playoff Spot |
Odds |
Implied Probability |
 Tampa Bay Lightning |
+400 |
20.00% |
 Carolina Hurricanes |
+500 |
16.67% |
 Winnipeg Jets |
+800 |
11.11% |
 Edmonton Oilers |
+1000 |
9.09% |
 Vegas Golden Knights |
+1000 |
9.09% |
 Dallas Stars |
+1200 |
7.69% |
 Colorado Avalanche |
+1200 |
7.69% |
 Florida Panthers |
+1500 |
6.25% |
RELATED: Check all the latest NHL odds here
First NHL Team to Clinch Playoff Spot Odds Analysis
Tampa Bay Lightning | +400 | Implied Probability: 20.00%
Why are the Lightning set as the early-season favorites on these theoretical odds?
While the Lightning look to be just as good this year as they were last year (they finished with 102 points), their main Atlantic Division rivals have lost key players to either free agency (Toronto / Mitch Marner) or serious injury (Florida / Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk).
That stability puts the Bolts in good position to outpace those rivals in the standings during the regular season and wrap up a postseason berth before any other team.
Carolina Hurricanes | 5/1 | Implied Probability: 16.67%
Carolina makes it two Eastern Conference clubs atop this board. That’s no accident, as the best team in the East that missed the playoffs last year (Columbus) had 89 points, while the best team in the West that missed the playoffs last year (Calgary) had 96 points.
Why the Hurricanes here and not the Capitals? Washington’s 111-point season in 2025/26 could have been an outlier, they weren’t expected to get anywhere close to that total. Carolina improved in the offseason, and should have an early playoff clinch.
Winnipeg Jets | 8/1 | Implied Probability: 11.11%%
Winnipeg had the best record in the entire NHL last season at 56-22-4 for 116 points, riding the goaltending of Connor Hellebuyck and a balanced offensive attack to that mark.
If someone from the Western Conference is going to be the first team to clinch a playoff spot in the season ahead, it’s likely going to be them. After faltering in the playoffs last year, though, they might try to pace themselves better this year.
First NHL Team to Clinch Playoff Spot Odds Sleeper
Dallas Stars | 12/1 | Implied Probability: 7.69%
It was actually Dallas that knocked Winnipeg out of the postseason last year, topping them in six games in their second-round series.
The Stars stumbled late last season, entering the playoffs on a seven-game skid, but still put up 106 points and clinched a postseason berth on March 29.
With Mikko Rantanen on board for the entire season, and Wyatt Johnston still improving, Dallas could be in line for a dominant season.
First NHL Team to Clinch Playoff Spot Odds Commentary
Edmonton, Vegas, and Colorado are other Western Conference clubs expected to cruise to playoff berths in the season ahead and would also be contenders on these theoretical odds, while defending-champ Florida might just have enough depth to surprise in the standings despite key injuries to those forwards.
Still, we like Tampa Bay and Carolina in this spot, with a slight edge to the Lightning and their veteran core. The likes of Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy, assuming they remain healthy, should be enough for the Lightning to strike first to clinch a playoff berth.
Disclaimer: The odds displayed for entertainment, political, and other non-sporting events on this page are purely speculative and intended for entertainment purposes only. These are not real betting markets offered by licensed operators. Please note that the odds above have been generated by Oddspedia for this article only. They are not necessarily reflective of the actual probability of the event occurring and it is not possible to place a wager on this event through Oddspedia. Any implied probabilities derived from these odds are not based on professional bookmaking standards and should not be used for actual wagering decisions. Please gamble responsibly with licensed providers.
