Oscars 2027: Best Picture Odds for the Biggest Films

The race for the 2027 Academy Award for Best Picture is beginning to take shape, with Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey establishing itself as the early favorite. The highly anticipated film is attracting considerable Best Picture betting lines attention, although several challengers are building momentum ahead of the 99th Academy Awards.

The Black Ball and You Can See Everything are among the strongest alternatives, while Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three has the potential to enter the conversation following its theatrical release.

Here are the estimated 2027 Best Picture odds for eight leading contenders.

 🏆 2027 Oscars Best Picture Odds

Best Picture Oscar odds accurate as of Nov. 2 

Who Is the Favorite to Win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars?

Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is the early favorite in the Best Picture odds, with an estimated 59% chance of winning the Academy Award. The filmmaker’s latest epic has received an overwhelmingly positive response from critics and moviegoers, giving it a strong early position in the awards race.

Starring Best Actor odds candidate Matt Damon as Odysseus, alongside Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson and Lupita Nyong’o, the film adapts Homer’s ancient Greek epic into a large-scale theatrical production. Nolan’s previous success with the Academy is an important factor. His 2023 film Oppenheimer won seven Oscars, including Best Picture and Best Director, demonstrating his ability to deliver the kind of ambitious filmmaking that resonates with Academy voters.

The Odyssey has also received impressive reviews, earning a 94% critics’ score and 96% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes as of November 2. Its combination of critical acclaim, commercial appeal, technical achievement and Nolan’s established reputation makes it a deserving frontrunner.

The current Best Picture odds reflect that advantage, although the awards season is still developing. Guild awards, critics’ groups and Oscar nominations could change the competitive landscape considerably before the March ceremony.

Best Picture Predictions 2027 – Three Leading Challengers

The Black Ball

The Black Ball is one of the most interesting challengers in the 2027 Best Picture race. Directed by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, the Spanish drama earned significant recognition at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival, where its directors received the Best Director award.

The film weaves together three stories set in 1932, 1937, and 2017, exploring homosexuality, political persecution, family history and generational trauma in Spain. Its ambitious storytelling and historical themes have attracted critical attention, while its cast includes Penélope Cruz, Glenn Close and Julio Torres.

The Cannes recognition gives The Black Ball an important early awards credential. International films have increasingly demonstrated their ability to compete for the Academy’s top prize, and its artistic ambition could appeal to voters looking for something different from Hollywood’s major studio productions. At an estimated +567, it remains a considerable underdog to The Odyssey, but its festival success makes it one of the more credible alternatives.

You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything is arguably the most unconventional contender in the Best Picture race. Directed by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, the A24 documentary follows disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes, beginning with a film crew’s access to her life in the weeks before she enters prison.

The documentary takes an unconventional approach to its subject, blending observational filmmaking, dark comedy and questions about the relationship between reality and performance. Its unusual style has generated significant discussion since its festival debut. Critically, the film has been a major success. It currently holds a 96% Rotten Tomatoes critics’ score and a 96% audience score, putting it among the best-reviewed films of the year.

Its awards potential is particularly interesting because no documentary has ever won the Academy Award for Best Picture. While You Can See Everything could be a serious contender in the Best Documentary Feature category, a Best Picture victory would require a historic breakthrough. Nevertheless, its critical reception and audience response have made it a notable presence in the 2027 Best Picture predictions. At approximately +426, it is one of the leading alternatives to Nolan’s blockbuster.

Dune: Part Three

Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three is another major contender to watch, although audiences will have to wait until December 18, 2026, for its theatrical release. The third installment concludes Villeneuve’s adaptation of Frank Herbert’s science-fiction universe, with Timothée Chalamet returning as Paul Atreides. Zendaya, Florence Pugh, Jason Momoa, Rebecca Ferguson and Robert Pattinson are also part of the star-studded cast.

The previous two films established Dune as one of the most ambitious science-fiction franchises in modern cinema. The original won six Academy Awards, while Dune: Part Two received multiple nominations, including recognition for Best Picture.

That history gives the third installment a strong foundation heading into awards season. Villeneuve’s filmmaking credentials, the franchise’s technical achievements and the anticipation surrounding its conclusion could help it attract attention across several Oscar categories.

However, its December release means critics and Academy voters have yet to assess the finished film. Its position in the Best Picture odds could change substantially once reviews arrive.

🎥 Previous Best Picture Winners

Looking at previous Best Picture winners provides useful context for the 2027 Oscars. Recent winners have included major studio productions, independent films and internationally acclaimed dramas.

When Are the 2027 Oscars?

The 99th Academy Awards are scheduled for March 14, 2027. The ceremony will recognize films released in 2026, with Oscar nominations expected to be announced on January 21, 2027.

The nominations will be an important milestone for the Best Picture race, as the Academy’s shortlist will establish which films remain eligible for the industry’s top honor.

How Do Best Picture Odds Work?

Best Picture odds represent the perceived chances of a film winning the Academy Award. American odds indicate how much a bettor would need to stake to win $100 on a negative-priced selection or how much a $100 wager would return in profit on a positive-priced selection.

For example, a film priced at -144 would require a $144 wager to generate $100 in profit. A selection at +567 would return $567 in profit on a successful $100 wager. You can wager on the Best Picture odds at some of the top sportsbooks and, in some cases, use sportsbook promos to give yourself a profit or odds boost.

The implied probability offers another way to compare contenders. Shorter odds indicate a higher perceived chance of winning, while longer prices suggest a less likely outcome.

Best Picture odds can change throughout awards season as films receive critical recognition, secure guild nominations and build momentum with Academy voters. Best Picture is one of many available markets in the Oscars odds, while the Academy Awards generate a significant amount of betting activity in the special bets category.

❓ 2027 Best Picture Odds FAQs

Who is the favorite to win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars?

Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is the early favorite to win Best Picture at the 2027 Academy Awards. The film has generated significant awards buzz thanks to its star-studded cast, impressive critical reception and Nolan’s previous Oscar success with Oppenheimer.

When are the 2027 Oscars?

The 99th Academy Awards will take place on March 14, 2027. The ceremony will recognize the best films released in 2026, with Oscar nominations scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027.

How many movies are nominated for Best Picture?

Between five and 10 films can receive Best Picture nominations at the Academy Awards. The Academy typically selects 10 nominees, giving a wider range of productions an opportunity to compete for its biggest honor.

How do Best Picture odds work?

Best Picture odds indicate the perceived likelihood of a movie winning the Academy Award. Shorter odds represent stronger favorites, while longer prices indicate underdogs. American odds also show potential returns, with negative prices requiring a stake to win $100 and positive prices showing profit on a $100 wager.

Has a documentary ever won the Best Picture Oscar?

No documentary has ever won the Academy Award for Best Picture. Documentaries compete in the separate Best Documentary Feature category, making You Can See Everything an especially interesting contender if it can challenge traditional narrative films in 2027.