The 2026 US Open begins Aug. 30 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York, with the singles finals scheduled for Sept. 12 and 13. With Jannik Sinner withdrawing because of a knee injury and Carlos Alcaraz returning from a four-month wrist layoff, the men’s field is more open than usual. That creates opportunities beyond the favorites when examining the latest tennis odds.
US Open Sleeper Picks: Men’s and Women’s Dark Horses for 2026
- Updated US Open odds for the favorites
- Can Tiafoe win with +2200 odds win the US Open?
- The best picks in the women's US Open draw
Reuters/Geoff Burke
Longshot players can offer major value at the US Open, especially when proven Grand Slam performers enter with favorable draws, strong hard-court form and odds that underestimate their chances...
Here are some of the best value men’s and women’s US Open sleeper picks ahead of the fourth and final major on the tennis schedule.
🎾 US Open Odds 2026
The current men’s market has Carlos Alcaraz as the favorite, followed by Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka leads Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff, while several accomplished players offer considerably longer prices.
Men’s US Open Odds
| Rank | Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | -165 | 62.26% |
| 2 | Alexander Zverev | +330 | 23.26% |
| 3 | Ben Shelton | +750 | 11.76% |
| 4 | Frances Tiafoe | +2000 | 4.76% |
| 5 | Learner Tien | +2000 | 4.76% |
| 6 | Alex Michelsen | +4000 | 2.44% |
| 7 | Alexander Blockx | +6000 | 1.64% |
| 8 | Karen Khachanov | +8000 | 1.23% |
| 9 | Francisco Cerundolo | +10000 | 0.99% |
| 10 | Botic van de Zandschulp | +15000 | 0.66% |
Women’s US Open Odds
| Rank | Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | +230 | 30.30% |
| 2 | Coco Gauff | +425 | 19.05% |
| 3 | Iga Swiatek | +500 | 16.67% |
| 4 | Jessica Pegula | +750 | 11.76% |
| 5 | Mirra Andreeva | +1000 | 9.09% |
| 6 | Elena Rybakina | +1100 | 8.33% |
| 7 | Linda Noskova | +1500 | 6.25% |
| 8 | Naomi Osaka | +1800 | 5.26% |
| 9 | Iva Jovic | +2800 | 3.45% |
| 10 | Emma Navarro | +4000 | 2.44% |
US Open odds provided by DraftKings, accurate as of September 7
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US Open Sleeper Picks (Men)
The best US Open sleeper picks aren’t necessarily players sitting outside the Top 20. Instead, look for proven Grand Slam performers whose current prices don’t fully reflect their ability to make a deep run on hard courts.
Frances Tiafoe odds to win US Open | +2200 at FanDuel
Reuters/Geoff Burke
Frances Tiafoe is one of the strongest US Open sleeper picks despite entering the tournament with longer odds than the elite favorites. The American has once again shown why his game can be especially dangerous in New York, reaching the quarterfinals after defeating former champion Daniil Medvedev in straight sets.
Tiafoe has been particularly comfortable at Louis Armstrong Stadium, where he remains unbeaten in 10 appearances. His athleticism, explosive forehand and ability to feed off the home crowd make him a difficult opponent over a best-of-five match. With Tiafoe already knocking out Medvedev, he has demonstrated that he can beat top-level competition when his game clicks. Bettors looking for value should have Tiafoe high on their list of US Open sleeper picks and tennis predictions.
Alexander Blockx odds to win US Open | +6000 at DraftKings
Alexander Blockx has quickly gone from intriguing long shot to legitimate contender, making him one of the most interesting US Open sleeper picks remaining in the draw. The 21-year-old Belgian delivered the biggest win of his career when he upset No. 6 seed Flavio Cobolli in four sets, winning 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3. That victory sent Blockx into the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time and showcased his ability to raise his level against a top opponent.
His confidence should be extremely high heading into the second week, and the draw gives him another opportunity to make noise. Blockx remains a true underdog, but his combination of momentum, confidence and fearless tennis makes him a compelling option among US Open sleeper picks.
Blockx plays Francisco Cerundolo in the Round of 16 on Monday.
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US Open Sleeper Picks (Women)
The women’s draw offers even more potential value because the field has repeatedly produced unexpected champions and finalists. These three veterans combine Grand Slam experience with prices that sit well outside the leading favorites.
Elena Rybakina odds to win US Open | +1100 at bet365
Reuters/Jerry Lai
Elena Rybakina may not be the traditional definition of a sleeper pick, but her price compared with the other leading contenders makes her an appealing value option. The No. 2 seed enters the fourth round after beating Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6, 6-3, following a similarly convincing opening-round victory over Thea Frodin.
Rybakina’s powerful serve and aggressive baseline game make her particularly dangerous on hard courts, while she already owns a Grand Slam title after winning the 2026 Australian Open. There were injury concerns heading into New York after she withdrew from Cincinnati, but she has looked healthy through her first three matches. With her ceiling among the highest in the draw, Rybakina deserves consideration among US Open sleeper picks.
She plays Naomi Osaka in the Round of 16 on Monday.
Emma Navarro odds to win US Open | +4000 at DraftKings
Emma Navarro has emerged as one of the most intriguing US Open sleeper picks after reaching the quarterfinals in New York. The 26th seed earned her spot in the final eight with a convincing 6-4, 6-2 victory over Anna Kalinskaya, returning to the US Open quarterfinals for the first time since her semifinal run in 2024.
Navarro now faces a major test against fellow American and No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. Pegula will be favored, but Navarro has already shown she can handle quality opposition and has the baseline consistency to make this an extremely competitive matchup. For bettors searching for value, Navarro deserves consideration among the best US Open sleeper picks.
Why There’s Value in US Open Tennis Sleepers
History shows why looking beyond the favorites can be worthwhile when considering US Open tennis odds. Flavia Pennetta entered the 2015 tournament at 200-1 (+20000) and won the title, while Sloane Stephens was priced around +4000 before her 2017 championship run. Naomi Osaka entered 2018 at approximately +6600, and Emma Raducanu produced an even bigger shock in 2021 at roughly +15000.
The men’s side has produced longshot champions as well. Marin Cilic was listed around +10000 before winning the 2014 tournament, while Juan Martin del Potro was roughly +1000 before his 2009 breakthrough.
That history doesn’t mean a +2500 player is automatically a good wager. It does demonstrate that a long price can become valuable when a player has the right combination of surface form, draw position, physical health and previous Grand Slam success. That’s why players such as Auger-Aliassime and Keys deserve consideration alongside the favorites.
How to Bet on US Open Sleeper Picks
Start by studying the tennis schedule and projected draws before betting. A sleeper with a favorable first three rounds can have substantially more value than a similarly priced player facing multiple seeds immediately. Compare the top sportsbooks for outright prices, match markets and player props, and check the available best sportsbook promotions before placing a wager.
Don’t limit yourself to US Open outright bets; match-by-match markets can provide additional opportunities once the tournament starts. Track injuries and results throughout the event because US Open odds can move dramatically after every round.
2026 US Open Schedule
Keep these dates handy when evaluating US Open sleeper picks. The 2026 US Open main draw begins Aug. 30, with the tournament continuing through the men’s final on Sept. 13. The official schedule notes that session times and match order can change.
- First Round (128 players): Aug. 30 – Sept. 1
- Second Round (64): Sept. 2 – Sept. 3
- Third Round (32): Sept. 4 – Sept. 5
- Fourth Round / Round of 16: Sept. 6 – Sept. 7
- Quarterfinals (8): Sept. 8 – Sept. 9
- Women’s Semifinals (4): Sept. 10
- Men’s Semifinals (4): Sept. 11
- Women’s Final: Sept. 12
- Men’s Final: Sept. 13
The USTA lists the 2026 event dates as Aug. 23-Sept. 13, with singles main-draw play beginning Aug. 30.
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❓ US Open Sleeper Picks FAQs
What are US Open sleeper picks?
US Open sleeper picks are players priced outside the primary favorites who have a realistic chance to make a deep run or win the tournament. Good sleepers typically combine strong hard-court form, Grand Slam experience, favorable draws and attractive outright odds.
Who is the best men’s US Open sleeper?
Frances Tiafoe stands out among the US Open men’s sleeper picks after eliminating Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. The American now faces Alex Michelsen in the quarterfinals, giving him another opportunity to reach the final four. His powerful serve, athleticism and New York experience make Tiafoe a dangerous option for bettors seeking value.
Who is the best women’s US Open sleeper?
Emma Navarro is one of the most attractive US Open women’s sleeper picks after reaching the quarterfinals with a straight-sets win over Anna Kalinskaya. She now faces fellow American Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. Navarro’s consistency, hard-court ability and previous deep US Open run make her an intriguing underdog in the matchup.
Can a longshot really win the US Open?
Absolutely. Recent examples include Flavia Pennetta at +15000 in 2015, Emma Raducanu at +15000 in 2021 and Sloane Stephens at +4000 in 2017. Those results demonstrate why bettors should not automatically dismiss players with longer US Open tennis odds.
What should I look for in US Open sleeper picks?
Look for players with strong hard-court records, previous success at Flushing Meadows and recent form heading into the tournament. Injury status and draw position are equally important because a longshot can lose much of its value if it faces multiple top seeds in the opening rounds.
Are US Open outright bets better than match bets?
Outright bets offer the biggest potential payout but require a player to survive seven matches. Match bets can provide more flexibility because you can reassess a player’s form and draw after each round. For that reason, comparing both markets can be useful when making US Open best bets.
Chris Roberts
