Defensor - Penarol Predictions
Defensor Sporting
5 days
15th Nov 26, 6:00 PM
18°
CA Penarol
Winner probabilities
1x2: Away
-161
picks
Powered by
Double Chance: Defensor Sporting or Draw
Confidence Rating
Best odds
+120
Given the current form of both teams, a Double Chance bet on Defensor Sporting (1X) appears to be a smart choice. Defensor Sporting, despite a rocky start with three losses in their last five matches, managed a draw and a win, suggesting they are inching toward regaining their competitive edge. Meanwhile, CA Penarol has struggled, with a string of draws and losses not indicating any clear momentum. Historical head-to-head records also show that both teams tend to score, enhancing the prospects of a favorable outcome for Defensor. With a positive expected value backing this bet, it's a compelling opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on these trends.
Oddspedia Model Probability
55.3%
Betting Odds Probability @+125
44.44% 24.44% Bet value
Given the current form of both teams, a Double Chance bet on Defensor Sporting (1X) appears to be a smart choice. Defensor Sporting, despite a rocky start with three losses in their last five matches, managed a draw and a win, suggesting they are inching toward regaining their competitive edge. Meanwhile, CA Penarol has struggled, with a string of draws and losses not indicating any clear momentum. Historical head-to-head records also show that both teams tend to score, enhancing the prospects of a favorable outcome for Defensor. With a positive expected value backing this bet, it's a compelling opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on these trends.
Oddspedia Model Probability
55.3%
Betting Odds Probability @+125
44.44%
24.44%
Bet value
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Total Goals: Under 2.5
Confidence Rating
Best odds
-111
With both Defensor Sporting and CA Penarol struggling to find the back of the net recently, predicting under 2.5 total goals seems like a solid wager. In their last five outings, both teams have displayed a concerning trend of low-scoring matches, with no standout offensive performances. Additionally, their head-to-head record further supports this forecast; both sides have consistently faced challenges in scoring over 2.5 goals when they meet. Given the current form and historical data, the likelihood of a tight contest is high. Placing a bet on under 2.5 goals could yield positive returns, making it a smart choice for bettors looking to capitalize on these trends.
Oddspedia Model Probability
59.12%
Betting Odds Probability @-111
52.63% 12.33% Bet value
With both Defensor Sporting and CA Penarol struggling to find the back of the net recently, predicting under 2.5 total goals seems like a solid wager. In their last five outings, both teams have displayed a concerning trend of low-scoring matches, with no standout offensive performances. Additionally, their head-to-head record further supports this forecast; both sides have consistently faced challenges in scoring over 2.5 goals when they meet. Given the current form and historical data, the likelihood of a tight contest is high. Placing a bet on under 2.5 goals could yield positive returns, making it a smart choice for bettors looking to capitalize on these trends.
Oddspedia Model Probability
59.12%
Betting Odds Probability @-111
52.63%
12.33%
Bet value
Total Goals: Under 3.5
Confidence Rating
Best odds
-300
The matchup between Defensor Sporting and CA Penarol strongly suggests that the total goals will remain under 3.5. Both teams have struggled offensively in their recent matches, with Defensor Sporting posting just one win in their last five and only managing to find the net sporadically. Similarly, CA Penarol's record shows a lack of scoring, pushing their last five games into draws and losses. Historically, their head-to-head encounters reflect a trend towards fewer goals, with only 22% of their meetings exceeding 3.5 goals. Given the current forms and H2H stats, the under 3.5 goals prediction carries strong potential for success.
Oddspedia Model Probability
79.14%
Betting Odds Probability @-303
75.02% 5.49% Bet value
The matchup between Defensor Sporting and CA Penarol strongly suggests that the total goals will remain under 3.5. Both teams have struggled offensively in their recent matches, with Defensor Sporting posting just one win in their last five and only managing to find the net sporadically. Similarly, CA Penarol's record shows a lack of scoring, pushing their last five games into draws and losses. Historically, their head-to-head encounters reflect a trend towards fewer goals, with only 22% of their meetings exceeding 3.5 goals. Given the current forms and H2H stats, the under 3.5 goals prediction carries strong potential for success.
Oddspedia Model Probability
79.14%
Betting Odds Probability @-303
75.02%
5.49%
Bet value
Game Probabilities
Winner probabilities
DEF
PEN
26%
Home
30%
Draw
45%
Away
Correct Score probabilities
>3
3
2
1
0
1.5%
0.3%
1.4%
2.0%
1.3%
0.8%
4.4%
6.1%
4.8%
1.8%
8.9%
13.3%
8.5%
3.8%
10.6%
12.9%
9.1%
4.0%
4.6%
0
1
2
3
>3
Correct Score:
1-1
+650
Betting Trends
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Betting stats
DEF
Played 39
PEN
Played 47
36%
ATS %
40%
31%
Totals Covered %
40%
90%
Games over 0.5 goals
94%
62%
Games over 1.5 goals
72%
31%
Games over 2.5 goals
38%
15%
Games over 3.5 goals
17%
10%
Games over 4.5 goals
4%
31%
Over HT1.5 goals at half time %
23%
18%
Scored in both halves
19%
15%
Conceded in both halves
9%
Last Matches
L
L
L
D
W
?
D
L
D
L
D
?
Head to Head
4
Wins
3
Draws
16
Wins
23 played
24 May 2026
Final
0
2
04 May 2026
Final
1
1
02 Nov 2025
Final
2
1
Standings
Primera Division , Apertura
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
| 
Racing Club Montevideo
|
15
|
9
|
4
|
2
|
23:14
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
31
| |
2
| 
Deportivo Maldonado
|
15
|
9
|
2
|
4
|
24:16
|
W
D
L
W
W
?
|
29
| |
3
| 
Albion FC
|
15
|
8
|
4
|
3
|
26:16
|
W
W
W
W
W
?
|
28
| |
4
|
CA Penarol
|
15
|
8
|
3
|
4
|
23:16
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
27
| |
5
| 
Central Espanol
|
15
|
7
|
3
|
5
|
23:22
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
24
| |
6
| 
Torque
|
15
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
22:16
|
L
D
W
D
W
?
|
23
| |
7
| 
Nacional De Football
|
15
|
7
|
1
|
7
|
26:21
|
L
W
L
L
W
?
|
22
| |
8
|
Defensor Sporting
|
15
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
13:11
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
21
| |
9
| 
Liverpool Montevideo
|
15
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
20:18
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
20
| |
10
| 
Montevideo Wanderers
|
15
|
6
|
2
|
7
|
16:21
|
L
L
W
L
W
?
|
20
| |
11
| 
Danubio
|
15
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
17:21
|
D
D
W
L
L
?
|
18
| |
12
| 
Cerro Largo
|
15
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
16:19
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
17
| |
13
| 
Boston River
|
15
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
14:20
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
17
| |
14
| 
CA Juventud
|
15
|
4
|
3
|
8
|
17:22
|
W
D
D
W
W
?
|
15
| |
15
| 
Club Atletico Progreso
|
15
|
2
|
4
|
9
|
12:23
|
L
W
L
L
L
?
|
10
| |
16
| 
CA Cerro
|
15
|
2
|
4
|
9
|
8:24
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
10
| |
Primera Division , Clausura
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Liverpool Montevideo
|
13
|
9
|
3
|
1
|
22:8
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
30
| |
2
|
Torque
|
13
|
9
|
1
|
3
|
26:14
|
L
D
W
D
W
?
|
28
| |
3
|
Nacional De Football
|
13
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
19:13
|
L
W
L
L
W
?
|
26
| |
4
|
Deportivo Maldonado
|
13
|
6
|
4
|
3
|
18:10
|
W
D
L
W
W
?
|
22
| |
5
|
CA Penarol
|
13
|
6
|
5
|
2
|
17:9
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
22
| |
6
|
Racing Club Montevideo
|
13
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
18:14
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
19
| |
7
|
Club Atletico Progreso
|
13
|
6
|
1
|
6
|
13:15
|
L
W
L
L
L
?
|
19
| |
8
|
CA Juventud
|
13
|
4
|
6
|
3
|
12:10
|
W
D
D
W
W
?
|
18
| |
9
|
CA Cerro
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
15:19
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
18
| |
10
|
Montevideo Wanderers
|
13
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
14:19
|
L
L
W
L
W
?
|
16
| |
11
|
Boston River
|
13
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
15:17
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
15
| |
12
|
Albion FC
|
13
|
4
|
1
|
8
|
15:20
|
W
W
W
W
W
?
|
13
| |
13
|
Defensor Sporting
|
13
|
3
|
3
|
7
|
16:23
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
12
| |
14
|
Danubio
|
13
|
2
|
4
|
7
|
7:15
|
D
D
W
L
L
?
|
10
| |
15
|
Cerro Largo
|
13
|
1
|
6
|
6
|
10:17
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
9
| |
16
|
Central Espanol
|
13
|
2
|
2
|
9
|
8:22
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
8
| |
Primera Division , Overall
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
CA Penarol
|
35
|
19
|
9
|
7
|
52:28
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
65
| |
2
|
Deportivo Maldonado
|
35
|
18
|
9
|
8
|
54:32
|
W
D
L
W
W
?
|
63
| |
3
|
Torque
|
35
|
19
|
6
|
10
|
59:41
|
L
D
W
D
W
?
|
63
| |
4
|
Nacional De Football
|
35
|
19
|
4
|
12
|
53:42
|
L
W
L
L
W
?
|
61
| |
5
|
Racing Club Montevideo
|
35
|
16
|
12
|
7
|
45:31
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
60
| |
6
|
Liverpool Montevideo
|
35
|
16
|
11
|
8
|
47:31
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
59
| |
7
|
Montevideo Wanderers
|
35
|
14
|
9
|
12
|
42:44
|
L
L
W
L
W
?
|
51
| |
8
|
Albion FC
|
35
|
13
|
8
|
14
|
47:44
|
W
W
W
W
W
?
|
47
| |
9
|
CA Juventud
|
35
|
10
|
11
|
14
|
37:43
|
W
D
D
W
W
?
|
41
| |
10
|
Central Espanol
|
35
|
11
|
8
|
16
|
35:48
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
41
| |
11
|
Defensor Sporting
|
35
|
9
|
12
|
14
|
35:43
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
39
| |
12
|
Cerro Largo
|
35
|
9
|
10
|
16
|
33:41
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
37
| |
13
|
Boston River
|
35
|
10
|
7
|
18
|
34:47
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
37
| |
14
|
CA Cerro
|
35
|
10
|
7
|
18
|
29:53
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
37
| |
15
|
Club Atletico Progreso
|
35
|
10
|
5
|
20
|
31:49
|
L
W
L
L
L
?
|
35
| |
16
|
Danubio
|
35
|
6
|
14
|
15
|
29:45
|
D
D
W
L
L
?
|
32
| |
Primera Division , Torneo Intermedio, Group A
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
CA Penarol
|
7
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
12:3
|
L
D
L
D
W
?
|
16
| |
2
|
Cerro Largo
|
7
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
7:5
|
D
L
L
W
L
?
|
11
| |
3
|
Racing Club Montevideo
|
7
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
4:3
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
10
| |
4
|
Liverpool Montevideo
|
7
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
5:5
|
W
L
D
W
L
?
|
9
| |
5
|
Central Espanol
|
7
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
4:4
|
D
L
W
L
W
?
|
9
| |
6
|
CA Cerro
|
7
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
6:10
|
D
D
L
L
L
?
|
9
| |
7
|
Defensor Sporting
|
7
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
6:9
|
W
D
W
D
L
?
|
6
| |
8
|
Boston River
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
5:10
|
L
W
L
W
L
?
|
5
| |
Possible Lineups
Confirmed 1h before kick-off
Defensor Sporting
Kevin Dawson
Goalkeeper
Guillermo De los Santos
Defender
Axel Frugone
Defender
Francisco Sorondo
Defender
Nicolas Wunsch
Midfielder
German Barrios
Midfielder
Lucas Agazzi
Midfielder
Geanfranco Rodriguez
Midfielder
Lorenzo Cafaro
Midfielder
Lautaro Navarro
Forward
Alan Torterolo
Forward
Defensor Sporting
No missing players for Defensor Sporting
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Match Details
Referee
-
Stadium
Estadio Luis Franzini
Location
Montevideo, Uruguay
Weather Forecast
18°.
