Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction: Can Liverpool make home advantage count?
Liverpool’s recent form and home advantage support the case for them to score first. They have been finding the net regularly and have often started matches strongly, particularly at Anfield.
Their home record against Chelsea also gives weight to the Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction, while Chelsea have shown some defensive vulnerability away from home.
With the SmartBet model also identifying positive expected value, Liverpool to score first stands out as the recommended angle.
Liverpool’s recent form and home advantage support the case for them to score first. They have been finding the net regularly and have often started matches strongly, particularly at Anfield.
Their home record against Chelsea also gives weight to the Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction, while Chelsea have shown some defensive vulnerability away from home.
With the SmartBet model also identifying positive expected value, Liverpool to score first stands out as the recommended angle.
What is SmartBet?
Developed by a team of professional bettors, the SmartBet model is powered by an AI engine to analyse over 1,000 data points for Liverpool vs Chelsea. We continuously monitor the thousands of daily odds changes to update our predictions, ensuring you get the best value. Learn more about SmartBet.
Liverpool vs Chelsea is part of the League Cup fourth round on 28 October 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC. Oddspedia’s SmartBet model makes Liverpool to score first the leading Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction, with a five-star confidence rating.
The model gives Liverpool a 59.62% probability of scoring first, compared with 50% implied by the odds, resulting in +19.24% expected value. Home advantage at Anfield adds further support to the selection.
Our Expert's Prediction - Liverpool vs Chelsea Full Time Result
Liverpool to win is my pick for this one. The Reds arrive in stronger form after four consecutive victories, while Chelsea come into the match on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham.
Liverpool have also scored 14 goals across their last four matches, and home advantage at Anfield gives them another edge.
Prematch Probabilities
What does the Oddspedia community think?
The Oddspedia community is leaning towards Liverpool in the result market, with six of nine users backing the home win at 3/2.
Liverpool come into the tie on a LWWWW run and also have a strong home record in this fixture. Chelsea’s recent form reads DLWWL, while they have not won away at Liverpool since 2021.
That gives the community some reason to favour the hosts, although the possibility of another tight contest remains.
Consensus
4
Community Tips
72
Liverpool form analysis: Can the winning run continue?
Liverpool come into this one in strong form at LWWWW and are on a three-match winning streak overall. They are also unbeaten in their last five home meetings with Chelsea, which gives them a solid record to lean on in this cup tie.
Their matches have been open too, with 67% going over 2.5 goals and 42% over 3.5. Cody Gakpo, Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai have all made early contributions this season.
If Liverpool can start on the front foot, Chelsea could have a difficult evening at Anfield.
Chelsea form analysis: Can they cope at Anfield?
Chelsea come into this one on a DLWWL run, so their recent form has been inconsistent. The cup setting may suit them, but their record at Anfield is less encouraging, with no away win there since 2021.
Their matches have tended to produce goals, with 70% going over 2.5, 50% over 3.5 and 40% over 4.5. Valentin Barco has made a promising start with one goal and one assist in two appearances, while Cole Palmer has two goals.
The big question is whether Chelsea can keep things controlled early or get drawn into a more open game.
Liverpool vs Chelsea odds: Liverpool slight favourites at Anfield
Liverpool are slight favourites in the result market at 3/2, with Chelsea at 13/6 and the draw priced at 3/1. The Asian handicap also leans towards the hosts, with Liverpool -0.25 available at 1/1.
The goals line is set at 3.25, with over priced at 19/20 and under at 7/8. That suggests the market is expecting a relatively high-scoring game, with little separating the two sides of the line.
Liverpool vs Chelsea predicted line-ups: Attacking shapes on show
Liverpool are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 under Andoni Iraola, with Alisson in goal. Virgil van Dijk should lead the defence alongside Ronald Araujo and Jeremy Jacquet, with Milos Kerkez at left-back. Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister are set to operate in midfield, while Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola and Cody Gakpo support Alexander Isak.
Chelsea are forecast to use a 3-4-2-1, with Mike Penders in goal and Levi Colwill in the back three. Moises Caicedo and Jordan Henderson should feature centrally, with Cole Palmer and Geovany Quenda playing behind Morgan Rogers.
Both sides are set up with plenty of attacking quality, making the midfield battle an important part of the contest.
Last Matches
Head-2-Head
Oddspedia Tipster Competitions
Monthly Tipster Competition
Yearly Tipster Competition
Bundesliga Competition
La Liga Competition
EPL Competition
Get a free bet for Liverpool vs Chelsea
FAQ Liverpool vs Chelsea
Who will win between Liverpool and Chelsea?
Bookmakers slightly favour Liverpool at 3/2, and the Reds also come into the tie in better recent form at LWWWW compared with Chelsea’s DLWWL.
The long-term head-to-head record is much closer, however, and 1-1 has been a common scoreline in this fixture. Liverpool have the edge, but this is far from a certainty.
What is the best bet for Liverpool and Chelsea?
The leading Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction from Oddspedia’s SmartBet model is Liverpool to score first. The model gives that outcome a 59.62% probability, compared with 50% implied by the odds, resulting in +19.24% expected value.
The Oddspedia community is also leaning towards Liverpool in the result market.
What is Oddspedia SmartBet?
Oddspedia SmartBet is a computer-model prediction. It simulates match outcomes and turns that into probabilities for betting markets. Here, it suggests Liverpool to score first, with a top confidence rating of 5 stars.
Where and when is the match played?
Liverpool vs Chelsea is part of the League Cup fourth round on 28 October 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC (20:00 GMT).
Where to watch Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Liverpool vs Chelsea will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports Main Event and ITV1, with streaming available on ITVX and NOW. Official club channels also provide match updates, while bet365 may offer live streaming where available.
Sign up for the all new Oddspedia newsletter and the latest USA betting offers.
By submitting your email, you give us consent to contact you for marketing purposes.
