As the regular season unfolds, the MLB home run leader odds will once again be one of baseball’s most captivating betting markets.
Power hitters across the league, such as Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani, are chasing not just personal milestones, but a statistical crown that proves they are the best slugger in the world.
Eight of the last 12 MLB home run leaders have come from the American League...
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh led the MLB in regular season home runs with 60 last season. Will it take another herculean effort to dethrone Judge?
Here’s an updated look at the 2026 MLB home run leader odds.
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| Player | Current Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Schwarber |
-190 | 65.52% |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+450 | 18.18% |
 Matt Olson |
+550 | 15.38% |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+600 | 14.29% |
 Junior Caminero |
+800 | 11.11% |
 Hunter Goodman |
+1600 | 5.88% |
 Ben Rice |
+4000 | 2.44% |
 Pete Alonso |
+15000 | 0.66% |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+20000 | 0.50% |
Home run leader odds courtesy of bet365 – accurate as of September 1
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Kyle Schwarber | -190 odds to lead MLB in HRsSchwarber surpassed Munetaka Murakami, a favorite in the NL Rookie of the Year odds, in late May and enjoyed several months as the betting favorite in the MLB home run odds market. The Phillies slugger was passed by Yordan Alvarez in early August, but has since reclaimed the favorite position after a resurgence that has included four home runs in his last 10 games.
Schwarber now has a league-leading 40 home runs and 82 RBI. The 33-year-old slugger has twice led the NL in home runs, including a career-best 56 last season. He’ll be tough for other contenders in the MLB most home runs market to catch if he stays healthy.
Yordan Alvarez | +450 odds to lead MLB in HRsThe current betting favorite in the Comeback Player of the Year odds, Alvarez is surging up the MLB home run odds leaderboard. The Houston Astros slugger has been a consistent force all season and is even a strong contender in the AL MVP odds, with an outside shot at becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. He has 37 home runs, but has only hit one since August 15.
Alvarez isn’t a flash in the pan. He has hit more than 30 home runs four seasons in a row from 2021-2024 before an injury-plagued season in 2025. In addition to his power numbers, he leads the AL in RBI (94), on-base percentage (.432), and slugging (.605).
Pete Crow-Armstrong | +600 odds to lead MLB in HRsPete Crow-Armstrong is surging up the MLB most home run odds board after an impressive power stretch. The Cubs star has a career-best 38 home runs on the season and has gone deep 12 times since August 16, putting him firmly in the conversation to lead MLB in homers. His recent power surge has also fueled a dramatic rise in the MLB MVP odds, where Crow-Armstrong has overtaken Shohei Ohtani as the favorite in the NL.
PCA’s combination of power, speed and elite defense has made him one of baseball’s biggest breakout stars in 2026. With his home run pace accelerating at the perfect time, Crow-Armstrong could be an intriguing long-shot target to finish atop the MLB home run leaderboard.
Reading MLB Home Run Leader odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet. For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600.
The MLB Home Run Leader is the player who finishes the regular season with the most home runs.
Contrary to other MLB individual award futures, there is no voting system to determine the winner.
Placing a futures bet on the MLB Home Run Leader odds is a five-step process that focuses on finding the best value.
Start by comparing Home Run Leader odds across multiple legal sportsbooks (e.g., bet365, Stake). Odds for longshot candidates can vary significantly (+2000 vs. +2500), directly impacting your potential return. Selecting the best price ensures maximum value for your bet.
Complete the online registration with the chosen bookmaker, providing necessary personal details for identity verification. When depositing funds, consider any available welcome bonuses, as these offers can effectively reduce the risk on your initial portfolio investment.
Once logged in, navigate the bookmaker’s menu to find the market. The path is typically: MLB → Futures → Regular Season Stat Leaders → Home Run Leader.
Identify your 3-4 preferred longshot players and click on their odds to add them to your bet slip. For each selection, enter the same wagering amount (stake) to create your diversified portfolio. It is crucial to place these as individual straight bets, not a parlay.
Before finalizing, review the bet slip to confirm the players, the locked-in odds, and the total amount risked. Once satisfied, submit the bets to secure your longshot odds for the entire MLB season.
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The following three strategies focus on maximizing value, managing risk and exploiting market inefficiencies across the MLB Season.
The core of this strategy is maximizing initial value by placing multiple, small, diversified bets immediately after the odds are released. Your focus should be on 3 to 4 longshot players who are in situations offering high-volume opportunities (e.g., a lock as a 3 or 4 hitter heading into Spring Training). By selecting odds of +2000 or higher, you are constructing a portfolio that diversifies risk. If any one of your selections breaks out, the return on the small, pooled stake is massive.
The second stage involves rigorous monitoring of your longshots during the first half of the season (April-June) to identify an odds-shortening breakout. You are tracking a sustained run of excellent production (e.g., a slugger hitting 30+ home runs in the first half of the season). This breakout performance will dramatically shift the market and prepare you for the third strategic step. Volume and consistency are the only metrics that matter here, as they validate the initial preseason bet.
This final, crucial strategy is pure risk management designed to lock in a guaranteed net profit. If your initial longshot has become a top favorite, you identify their closest rival and calculate the precise stake needed to place a bet on that rival. This is the “hedge bet.” The goal is to ensure that regardless of which of the two top candidates ultimately wins the award, you walk away with a guaranteed, significant return on your small initial investment, effectively taking risk off the table late in the season.
When wagering on the MLB Home Run Leader odds or any other MLB individual award futures, it is always wise to research betting trends that have been established over the years. Here is a look at some key trends to consider before placing this season’s bets.
To make sure you get the most value on your MLB odds, go to the best MLB betting sites prior to placing your wagers throughout the regular season.
| Sportsbook bonus | Sportsbook promo code | Sportsbook review |
|---|---|---|
| Stake Promo Code | ODDSMAX | Stake Review |
| bet365 Bonus Code | ODDSPEDIA | bet365 Review |
| Betway Promo Code | N/A | Betway Review |
If you’re looking for expert insight on the MLB, take a look at some of our other articles:
| Year | HR Leader |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Cal Raleigh |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Matt Olson |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 |  Salvador Perez  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| 2020 | Luke Voit |
| 2019 |  Pete Alonso |
| 2018 |  Khris Davis |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 | Mark Trumbo |
The 2025 MLB home run leader was Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. He hit 60 homers in 159 games, leading baseball in the category for the first time in his career.
The 2026 MLB home run leader won’t be decided until the end of the regular season. After every team plays 162 games, the player with the most home runs will be crowned the home run leader. In recent seasons, the home run race has been quite close in the final few weeks of the year.
After the regular season concludes, the player with the most home runs is crowned the MLB home run leader. Contrary to other MLB individual award futures, there is no voting system to determine the winner.
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