The US shutdown has now ended after 43 days, bringing the country’s longest ever shutdown to a close. Below are the odds and popularity predictions published in the days before the shutdown ended.
The US shutdown became the longest in its history when it entered its 36th day on 5 November.
Democrats and Republicans have been pointing the finger of blame at each other since 1 October, but with no agreement in sight until very recently, the US was left staring into the face of its second lengthy shutdown in recent years.
Initially, the President warned the situation would result in “irreversible” mass firings. And now Americans are beginning to feel the effects of the shutdown, with hundreds of flights cancelled after airlines were told to cut air traffic.
The shutdown broke a record set in 2018, when the government took 35 days to reach an agreement. But now we’ve moved past that, the question is: how long can this continue… and what could it mean for Trump’s popularity?
“...almost 40% of Americans put the shutdown on Republicans, largely because of the party’s position of control over the White House and both chambers of Congress.”
We spoke to Jeff Le, California’s negotiator with the first Trump administration, to get the lowdown on what’s likely to happen next. Then, we put our analysts to work, diving into the data to bring you the odds on every possible outcome.
US Shutdown length odds
| Days (More than) |
US Odds |
Implied Probability |
| 41 days |
-9900 |
99% |
| 42 days |
-4900 |
98% |
| 43 days |
+194 |
34% |
| 44 days |
+525 |
16% |
| 45 days |
+900 |
10% |
| 46 days |
+1567 |
6% |
| 47 days |
+1900 |
5% |
| 48 days |
+2400 |
4% |
| 49 days |
+9900 |
1% |
| 50 days |
+9900 |
1% |
Probabilities provided by Kalshi – accurate as of November 11
US Shutdown odds: How long will it last?
It’s not just approval ratings we’re keeping an eye on as we monitor the situation. We’ve also been diving into the data to find out exactly how long it’s going to last, as this too will have a significant impact on what it means for the president’s ratings.
As the deadlock continues, the prospect of a shutdown lasting 43 days or more has a 34% probability. The chance of it lasting much longer appears slimmer at the moment, however, with markets showing a 1% chance of it lasting more than 50 days.
US Shutdown to last more than 44 days | 16% probability
In its first few days, few expected the shutdown to become the longest in history. But this year’s shutdown has already surpassed the 35-day mark, so now officially facing a shutdown longer than that of 2018.
Odds are now lengthening on the current shutdown surpassing the 2018 stalemate by over 10 days, however. The US Senate has now advanced a funding bill that would end the shutdown, so the end could well be in sight.
The chance of the current stalemate going on longer than 44 days now stands at 16%.
US Shutdown odds: Trump had been underwater, but is he turning things around?
Initially, the US shutdown appeared unlikely to improve Trump’s popularity ratings, which had erred more towards disapproval than approval until very recently.
However, if we consider recent changes to his ratings, and take into account how Americans generally felt about the last shutdown, it looks more promising for the President.
In 2018, while two-thirds of adults agreed that the shutdown was “a major problem for the country,” polling found that Democrats were far more likely to see it as a large issue than Republicans.
Jeff Le, California’s former negotiator, told us that Trump had been “negatively favored on every issue – from the handling of the economy to overseas conflicts and his signature legislation – the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – is still seen as more unfavorable than favorable to voters.”
Until recently Trump’s ratings looked unlikely to improve, with Le commenting: “President Trump’s approval numbers have largely been steady this year; however, he continues to be underwater with 55% disapproval to 40% approval.” But this has started to change, and the President’s popularity ratings are now on the rise.
US Shutdown odds: Will Trump’s popularity rise or fall?
Let’s take a look at the odds on what the US showdown means for Trump’s popularity. As the second shutdown of his presidency continues past the 35-day mark, we’re looking at approval ratings start to rise for the man who famously described himself as “a very stable genius.”
President Trump popularity down | 83% probability
Trump’s popularity didn’t look likely to take nosedive as a result of the shutdown initially, but as the situation continues the chances of the President’s popularity continuing to fall are increasing. Currently, we’d give the odds of Trump’s popularity falling (-448).
Democrats and Republicans are both playing the blame game at the moment. Although Trump doesn’t really hold all the cards on this one, people are looking to him to provide the stability the country needs. If he isn’t able to do so, his popularity will be impacted.
President Trump popularity up | 25% probability
The President is well-known for his refusal to compromise on the issues that matter most to him and his voters. So it’s not entirely surprising that he was president for the longest shutdown in the country’s history, and he’s now overseeing another similar situation.
His supporters are likely to back him all the way, but as the likelihood of this shutdown lasting even longer than the previous one rises, Trump’s popularity looks increasingly unlikely to come out of this unscathed.
Will President Trump’s popularity be unaffected?
The impact of this situation will be far-reaching, so people all over the country are likely to reassess their support of the president in one way or another.
While Trump’s popularity remained largely in tact for the first few weeks, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more Americans will start to feel the effects of it. And that’s where we’ll really begin to see whether sentiment amongst the president’s supporters will be swayed by his handling of this.
As Jeff Le explains, “major cuts to services in healthcare, agriculture, and parks may have broad impacts. These impacts could grow in concern heading back two weeks of a shutdown with both parties vying to message the blame game.”
US Shutdown: Jeff Le provides insight into Trump’s options
Former California state politics senior official Jeff Le, who is also Managing partner at tech policy consultancy 100 Mile Strategies, gave us a glimpse into what might be happening behind the scenes and how much the President can really do to keep his voters happy.
Le explained, “Political brinksmanship has been a regular theme in 2025. Already narrowly avoiding a shutdown in March, the shutdown on October 1 represents the prospects of a longer drawnout process with little off-ramps or political incentives to compromise for both parties.”
“The administration has latitude to designate what services and staff are essential and will largely attempt to keep the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and its programs open.”
It’s possible that the impact of the shutdown could thereby be limited, if the president chooses to go down that road. But that’s not really his style, is it?
In the hours after news of the failed deal broke, Trump was quick to threaten mass layoffs. Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt went a step further, confirming cuts would be “imminent, very soon,” stating “sometimes you have to do things that you don’t want to do.”
We’ll be keeping an eye on those approval markets if these much talked about layoffs do go ahead. The reaction may be stronger than the president had anticipated.
