The next installment of Wicked is out now, so it’s time to dust off those ruby slippers and head back to the Emerald City for another cinematic feast.
Already talk has turned to the impact that this film could have. It’s one of the most anticipated releases of 2025, and it’s already got a huge following thanks to its critically acclaimed predecessor and that star-studded cast.
"This is a film that has transcended cinema to become a cultural phenomenon"
Inspired by one of the most successful Broadway musicals of all time (Wicked has grossed over $5 billion worldwide), the film brings some of the stage show’s best-loved ballads to the big screen, with Wicked: For Good set to include a few original tracks too.
There’s no denying that this is a movie that will defy gravity for a long time to come. But will it defy the odds too?
We spoke to PR and Entertainment Industry expert, Lynn Carratt to get her thoughts and predictions for the cultural event of 2025.
Our analysts then calculated everything from what we can expect to happen, to the film’s chances of Oscar success. And we can now bring you our full predictions for Wicked: For Good. Get ready, this one’s about to put a spell on us all.
The odds displayed are purely speculative and intended for entertainment purposes only.
Note: Wicked: For Good is now out in cinemas, so some of the below markets have been resolved. If you haven’t seen it yet, skip our spoiler alerts below!
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 👍 Yes | +230 | 30.3% |
| 👎 No | -300 | 75% |
Wicked fans cannot wait to see whether Glinda and Fiyero will tie the knot in the final instalment of this story. While the couple are engaged in the Broadway show, there’s never been a wedding scene depicted on stage.
Director Jon M. Chu has confirmed that Wicked: For Good does include such a scene, and trailers have given us glimpses of it. But will the couple’s big day go without a hitch, or is this a scene that’s just ready and waiting for a dramatic interruption, as the sneak peek suggests?
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 👍 Yes | +186 | 35% |
| 👎 No | -186 | 65% |
As Lynn Carratt says, “The social media chatter is already massive, fuelled by speculation and anticipation,” and one of the biggest questions fans are asking is… “Will Glinda and Elphaba’s story end the same way as on stage?”
Wicked takes its inspiration from the Broadway show more than the novels that the show is based on, so it’s more likely that Wicked: For Good will end with a scene reminiscent of the musical’s ending than that of the novels.
However, while we’re fully expecting similarities between the ending of the musical and Wicked: For Good, a straight-match seems unlikely considering the many ways in which the two-part film adaptation has veered away from the show so far.
The musical ends with Elphaba faking her death and escaping Oz with Fiyero, who is transformed into the scarecrow. In the novel, she’s allergic to water and dies at the hands of Dorothy (Fiyero is long dead by this point too). With so many options available, the likelihood is that the film will go in its own, slightly different direction.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| ⬆️ Over | -150 | 60% |
| ⬇️ Under | -100 | 50% |
Wicked: For Good was never going to be a damp squib of a movie. But this film looks likely to surpass expectations in every way; it could well be one of this year’s top-grossing titles.
The movie opens at the perfect time, just ahead of the holiday season, and it comes complete with all the feel-good, family-friendly charm we need to start the festivities in the best way.
As Lynn Carratt explains, “Timing has been key. Dropping a major musical at a moment when audiences crave escapism shows strategic genius.”
“The narrative layers are clever: nostalgia for fans, novelty for new audiences, combined with original design and tracks that keep the story fresh.”
Cinemas have already started to sell out opening weekend showings, so expect huge demand for these two-hour trips to Oz.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| ⬆️ Over | -185 | 64.9% |
| ⬇️ Under | +120 | 45.5% |
The first part of this Emerald City spectacular achieved a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 88%, but has the finale got what it takes to surpass this and top 90% on the ratings?
Ariana and Cynthia both have hugely loyal fanbases, as does the movie itself and the Broadway show it’s inspired by. Added to this is the fact that this film includes a few new songs Wicked fans will never have heard before.
This film’s production will be nothing short of magical, either, with many already tipping it for Oscar wins in costume and production design. While it’s rare for musicals to reach rating scores over 90%, Wicked: For Good just might do it.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| ⬆️ Over 2.5 | -400 | 80% |
| ⬇️ Under 2.5 | +230 | 30.3% |
We’re fully expecting the Wicked: For Good soundtrack to dominate the Billboard Hot 100 soon after release.
Several well-loved musicals have seen numerous original tracks enter the list recently, so it’s well within reach for this movie.
In July, seven tracks from the Netflix film KPop Demon Hunters appeared in the Billboard Hot 100 at once. If HUNTR/X can do it, we’re prepared to bet that Oz’s golden (and green) girls can too.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| ⬆️ Over 8 | +110 | 47.6% |
| ⬇️ Under 8 | -130 | 56.5% |
Wicked: For Good has already been tipped for several Oscar nominations, but will it be in with a chance of taking over eight statues next year?
The chances are we’ll see Elphaba and Glinda’s exploits nominated for plenty of technical awards, the likes of costume, production, sounds and visual effects for example.
Erivo and Grande could well be in with a shot at some of those big acting awards, too. Currently, Erivo is amongst the favourites for Best Actress ahead of the film’s release.
But we mustn’t forget that this is a two-part film, and that may detract from its chances of award success. Musicals typically don’t sweep the award ceremonies either.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 👍 Yes | -255 | 71.8% |
| 👎 No | +165 | 37.7% |
Musicals aren’t often big winners at the Oscars, but there are a few categories in which this film has a high chance of Academy Award success.
Wicked: For Good is highly likely to outshine the competition in categories like production and costume design. It could well win awards for sound and makeup too.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 👍 Yes | +185 | 35.1% |
| 👎 No | -300 | 75% |
The first part of Wicked wasn’t eligible for a Best Original Song Oscar, because of course none of its songs were original.
The second part does include two original tunes, though: “No Place Like Home,” by Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba, and “The Girl in the Bubble,” by Ariana Grande as Glinda.
Both have a chance of winning an Oscar, but they face stiff competition in the form of “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters and “I Lied to You” from Sinners.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 👍 Yes | -140 | 58.3% |
| 👎 No | -100 | 50% |
If there’s one area in which Wicked is certain to pull out all the stops, it’s production and costume design.
The Emerald City aesthetic that burst onto the big screens last year was like nothing we’ve ever seen before, and set design for the second part could well be even better.
When it comes to cinematic spectacle, Wicked is the one to beat.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 👍 Yes | +235 | 29.9% |
| 👎 No | -235 | 70.1% |
Defying Gravity is the big hit of the stage show and the first movie, so many have (hopefully) questioned whether the song could be back in Wicked: For Good.
Of course, if Defying Gravity does make an appearance it’s unlikely to be in its original form, but could a remix be used to close the show as the end credits play?
The likelihood of this looks slim, considering the fact that Director Jon M. Chu has already revealed that the song was cut from the opening scenes of part two.
Defying Gravity is absolutely iconic and Wicked through and through, but Wicked: For Good has its own big ballad, “For Good,” which we’re now expecting to run during the credits instead.
PR and Entertainment Industry expert Lynn Carratt told us that Universal has pulled off “a full-blown cultural moment,” with the release of Wicked: For Good.
“From trailers to red carpets, from merchandise to collaborations, Universal has positioned this as the box-office phenomenon of the year and the must-see spectacle that bridges generations,” Carratt said.
“The branding is everywhere. Puma has launched Wicked-themed trainers, REM Beauty has Glinda and Elphaba makeup sets, and Abercrombie & Fitch has created an exclusive line of Wicked apparel. And that’s just scratching the surface — this is a film that has transcended cinema to become a cultural phenomenon.”
“The film itself is a masterclass in event filmmaking — a perfect blend of nostalgia and reinvention.”
“Long-time fans are treated to a spectacle that honors the original Broadway magic, while new audiences are introduced to the world of Oz in a bold, modern way. Universal has leveraged fan bases from different spheres—pop culture meets musical theatre credibility — ensuring the film resonates far and wide.”
Speculation on what could happen in the final part of this much-loved story is massive, with fans picking apart every clue as they attempt to work out what awaits when the film finally hits cinemas on 21 November.
Universal is using social chatter to its full advantage, though. As Carratt told us, the production company “has turned every question into engagement, proving that PR is about more than just selling a film — it’s about creating conversation.”
“Wicked: For Good isn’t just about green witches and flying monkeys — it’s about tapping into a moment in time, turning speculation into social media frenzy, and proving that Universal knows exactly how to turn a film release into a cultural event.”
“Universal has played the long game, and it’s paying off spectacularly.”
We examine the latest Donald Trump exit date odds, whether he will complete his second term and who could eventually succeed him.
Explore the latest US next president odds, including early frontrunners, betting market shifts, and key political figures shaping the 2028 race across party and nominee futures as momentum builds early.
Check the latest 2027 Best Picture odds and Oscar predictions. Compare the favorites, including The Odyssey, The Black Ball, You Can See Everything, and Dune: Part Three.
Donald Trump features again in the 2026 TIME Person of the Year odds after winning for a second time in 2024. Explore the latest odds, favourites and our sleeper pick.
With Denis Villeneuve set to direct the next James Bond film, speculation over Daniel Craig’s replacement has intensified. Explore the latest Next James Bond odds, leading contenders and our sleeper pick.
WWE Crown Jewel 2026 features Roman Reigns vs. Sami Zayn and Liv Morgan vs. Chelsea Green. Check our estimated odds, match card and predictions, including why we're backing Zayn to finally beat Reigns.
GTA VI is the overwhelming favourite for Game of the Year 2026, but can Rockstar's November release justify the odds? We assess its biggest rivals.
Following Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street, the latest UK Next Prime Minister odds are taking shape as candidates position themselves to become Britain’s next prime minister.
After Maria Corina Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, attention has turned to 2026. Check the latest odds and analysis of this year’s leading contenders.
Get the latest Emmy Award odds and predictions for the biggest TV categories. See the favorites, sleeper picks, value bets and expert analysis ahead of television's biggest night.
Enes Kanter WNBA odds have emerged after the former NBA center declared for the 2027 WNBA Draft. We examine his chances, the controversy and prediction markets.
Despite an official November release date, GTA 6 prediction markets still show a slight chance of a 2027 slip. Here is the latest breakdown of the GTA 6 release date odds and price predictions.
