World Cup Top Scorer Odds 2026: Mbappe and Messi Level

The World Cup 2026 Golden Boot odds are heating up ahead of the final weekend, with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe locked together at the top of the scoring charts.

Messi still has the final to come for Argentina, while Mbappe can add to his total in the third-place play-off for France. With that match counting towards the Golden Boot race, there is still room for another twist before the tournament ends.

When comparing the latest World Cup odds, current goal tally is only one part of the picture. A player’s remaining fixture, penalty duties, expected minutes and team motivation all matter when assessing their Golden Boot price.

Below, we’ve listed the latest World Cup 2026 top scorer odds and analysed how the race could develop across the final and third-place play-off.

2026 World Cup top scorer odds as Messi and Mbappe lead

Here are the latest World Cup 2026 Golden Boot odds, with the market now reflecting the final weekend schedule and the fact that both the final and third-place play-off count towards the top scorer race.

Odds courtesy of bet365 – accurate as of 16th July.

World Cup 2026 top scorer odds favourites

Mbappe still the player to beat (13/2 🔻 10/11)

Kylian Mbappe is still the narrow favourite in the World Cup top scorer odds, sitting level with Lionel Messi on eight goals heading into the final weekend.

France are out of the World Cup after losing to Spain in the semi-finals, but Mbappe still has one more chance to add to his tally in the third-place play-off against England.

The 2022 Golden Boot winner remains France’s most reliable source of goals, and his price has shortened from 13/2 before the tournament to 10/11. With penalty duties, elite finishing and one match left, he is still the player Messi has to catch.

Can Messi win first Golden Boot? (18/1 🔻 1/1)

Lionel Messi is level at the top of the scoring charts on eight goals despite not scoring as Argentina beat England 2-1 to reach the World Cup final.

Messi is still Argentina’s creative hub, penalty taker and most influential attacking player, making him a constant threat whenever the reigning champions attack. With Spain waiting in the final, he has one more match to move clear in the Golden Boot race.

The bookmakers have responded to his performances, cutting his World Cup top scorer odds from 18/1 before the tournament to 1/1. Mbappe remains just ahead in the betting, but Messi has the final stage to himself while his main rival plays in the third-place play-off.

Will Kane respond in the third-place play-off? (7/1 ▲ 33/1)

The England captain won this award in 2018 and is still technically in the Golden Boot race after moving through the tournament on six goals.

Kane now sits two behind Mbappe and Messi, with England facing France in the third-place play-off after their 2-1 semi-final defeat to Argentina. As England’s penalty taker and focal point in attack, he is still the most likely Three Lions player to add to his total.

At 33/1, his World Cup Golden Boot odds reflect how much needs to happen from here. Kane needs a multi-goal performance against France, while also relying on Messi and Mbappe failing to move further clear.

Bellingham needs a huge final-game swing (80/1 🔻 66/1)

Jude Bellingham is still listed in the World Cup top scorer odds after moving onto six goals during England’s knockout run.

Bellingham’s role gives him a different route into the market. He is not England’s main striker, but his timing into the box, set-piece threat and ability to arrive in big moments have made him one of Tuchel’s most important attacking players.

His price is now 66/1, with England facing France in the third-place play-off. He still needs to make up serious ground quickly, but with one match left and the third-place play-off counting towards the Golden Boot race, he remains on the board.

Spain’s Golden Boot hope needs a final flourish (66/1 ▲ 100/1)

Mikel Oyarzabal is still in the Golden Boot conversation after taking his tally to five goals during Spain’s run to the final.

Spain’s attacking structure does not always revolve around one out-and-out scorer, but Oyarzabal has been their most reliable finisher at this tournament. His semi-final goal against France kept him on the edge of the Golden Boot picture, even if the gap to the leaders remains difficult to close.

The challenge is whether he can produce something dramatic against Argentina. Mbappe and Messi are three goals ahead, while Kane and Bellingham are also above him, so Oyarzabal’s World Cup top scorer odds are still 100/1 ahead of the final.

Dembele running out of time (33/1 ▲ 150/1)

Ousmane Dembele is still listed in the Golden Boot market on five goals, but his price has drifted after France’s semi-final defeat to Spain.

Dembele forced his way into the Golden Boot conversation during the group stage, including a hat-trick against Norway, but Mbappe has remained France’s main goal threat throughout the tournament.

At 150/1, Dembele now needs a major swing in the third-place play-off against England. He has one more match to add to his total, but with Messi and Mbappe on eight, his Golden Boot chances are extremely slim.

World Cup 2026 top scorer predictions

The Golden Boot favourite I trust most: Kylian Mbappe (13/2 🔻 10/11)

Kylian Mbappe was my standout pre-tournament prediction for the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot at 13/2, and the France forward is now 10/11 after moving onto eight goals during the tournament.

France missed out on the final after losing to Spain, but Mbappe still has one more match to come in the third-place play-off against England.

Messi is level with Mbappe on eight goals and will play for Argentina in the final against Spain, so the race is still finely balanced. Kane and Bellingham are both on six and would need a huge swing, while Oyarzabal and Dembele are further back on five.

The 13/2 selection is in a strong position heading into the final weekend, but the job is not done yet. Mbappe has delivered the goals France needed throughout the tournament, and one more scoring contribution against England could be enough to secure another Golden Boot.

World Cup Golden Boot betting trends

Historical World Cup data shows that Golden Boot winners almost always come from teams that reach the semi-finals or final. Players who advance deep into the tournament simply have more matches to accumulate goals, which is why attackers from the strongest nations usually dominate the betting market.

Penalty takers also play a major role in the Golden Boot race, as spot kicks often provide additional scoring chances during knockout matches. Now the tournament is moving deeper, team progression matters even more than it did during the group stage, with every extra fixture giving the leading contenders another chance to add to their tally.

Monitoring team news, form and using World Cup predictions from trusted sources can help identify value selections as the tournament unfolds.

World Cup Golden Boot previous winners

History shows that Golden Boot winners almost always come from teams that reach the latter stages of the competition, reinforcing the importance of balancing goalscoring ability with tournament progression when assessing the latest World Cup top scorer odds.

World Cup Golden Boot betting strategy

Picking the Golden Boot winner isn’t just about backing the biggest name. Looking at the draw, likely team progression and keeping up with the latest World Cup news can make a big difference.

Analyse the groups

The group stage is where Golden Boot contenders can quickly build momentum. If a striker faces weaker defensive sides early on, there’s a good chance they could rack up goals before the knockout rounds begin. When assessing the World Cup top goalscorer odds, it’s worth looking at which teams have favourable groups and attacking players likely to start every game.

Teams likely to go the distance

Golden Boot winners usually come from teams that reach the semi-finals or final. The further a team goes in the tournament, the more matches their striker gets to play. That’s why players from nations such as France, England, Spain and Argentina often dominate the World Cup Golden Boot betting market.

Penalty and free-kick takers

Set pieces can be crucial in top scorer markets. Players who take penalties, and sometimes direct free kicks, naturally have more opportunities to add to their goal tally. Before placing a bet, it’s always worth checking which attackers are on spot-kick duty for their national team.

To see the exact list for every squad, check out our simple World Cup penalty takers tracker to help you make smarter bets.

Take advantage of odds boosts and betting promos

Bookmakers usually run plenty of promotions during the World Cup. Keeping an eye out for best betting offers or welcome offers can add extra value to a Golden Boot bet. You’ll often find these deals promoted across a variety of bookmakers during major tournaments, helping you secure the best football odds available.

Use the best football betting sites

Anyone planning to bet on the tournament should compare prices across the best football betting sites to find the most competitive World Cup Golden Boot odds. Different bookmakers often offer slightly different prices, so shopping around can make a meaningful difference over the course of the tournament.

The best betting apps also make it easy to track markets during the tournament and take advantage of special promotions. Many sites run enhanced odds, free bets and other incentives during major competitions, which can add extra value when placing World Cup bets.

World Cup Golden Boot odds FAQs

Who is favourite in the World Cup top scorer odds?

Kylian Mbappe is the narrow favourite in the World Cup top scorer odds after moving onto eight goals during France’s run to the final weekend. Lionel Messi is level with him on eight goals and still has the final to come for Argentina, while Mbappe can add to his total in the third-place play-off against England.

Who was the World Cup top scorer in 2022?

Kylian Mbappe finished as the World Cup top scorer in Qatar 2022 with eight goals. The France forward produced a remarkable tournament that included a hat-trick in the final against Argentina, becoming only the second player in history to score three times in a World Cup final. His performances secured the Golden Boot despite France finishing as runners-up.

Has anyone won the World Cup Golden Boot twice?

No player has ever won the World Cup Golden Boot on more than one occasion. Several legendary goalscorers, including Ronaldo Nazario, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe, have claimed the award during their careers, but nobody has successfully defended the prize. That underlines how difficult it is to finish as the tournament’s leading scorer across multiple World Cups.

Can Harry Kane still win the Golden Boot?

Yes, Harry Kane can still win the Golden Boot, but he needs a major swing from here. He sits on six goals, two behind Mbappe and Messi, with England facing France in the third-place play-off. As England’s captain, penalty taker and focal point in attack, he still has a route into the race, but he needs a multi-goal performance and help from the players above him.