With the winner due to be announced on Friday 9 October, the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize odds have entered their final week. Humanitarian organisations, political figures, activists and international institutions all feature prominently in the betting.
The 2025 prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was not among the shortest-priced names in many markets. Her victory was another reminder of how difficult the Nobel Peace Prize can be to predict.
Humanitarian organisations lead the market ahead of the political contenders...
The Norwegian Nobel Committee keeps nominations confidential for 50 years. Bettors and analysts must therefore rely on publicly announced nomination claims, geopolitical developments, diplomatic efforts and humanitarian work when assessing the contenders.
Below, we compare the latest Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds, analyse several prominent contenders and revisit our prediction ahead of the announcement.
The latest Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds include humanitarian organisations, political figures and international institutions among the leading contenders. The table below shows the favourites ahead of the winner’s announcement on 9 October.
| Contender | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 3/1 (4.00) | 25.00% |
| Doctors Without Borders | 4/1 (5.00) | 20.00% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 6/1 (7.00) | 14.29% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7/1 (8.00) | 12.50% |
| UNRWA | 8/1 (9.00) | 11.11% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 8/1 (9.00) | 11.11% |
| Save the Children | 9/1 (10.00) | 10.00% |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 12/1 (13.00) | 7.69% |
| Francesca Albanese | 12/1 (13.00) | 7.69% |
| Donald Trump | 12/1 (13.00) | 7.69% |
Odds provided by the Oddspedia odds comparison tool, accurate as of 8 October 2026.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 odds analysisThe crossed-out prices in the headings show the odds available at our previous update, highlighting how the market has changed since then.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are the 3/1 favourites in the latest Nobel Peace Prize odds following growing international recognition of their humanitarian work during Sudan’s ongoing conflict.
These locally organised volunteer networks deliver food, medical assistance and other essential support, often while operating in dangerous and difficult-to-reach areas. Their work has become an important part of the locally led response to the humanitarian crisis.
The ERRs received the 2025 Chatham House Prize at a ceremony in March 2026. That recognition, combined with their continued work on the ground in Sudan, helps explain their position at the head of the market.
Doctors Without Borders, also known as Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), is second favourite at 4/1 as it seeks to receive the award for a second time.
The organisation won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1999 for its pioneering humanitarian work across several continents. It continues to provide emergency medical assistance in conflict zones and humanitarian crises around the world.
MSF remains active in Sudan, where its teams carried out nearly 850,000 outpatient consultations during 2025. A second Nobel Peace Prize would be unusual, but the scale and continuity of its humanitarian work keep the organisation among the leading contenders.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shortened to 6/1 in the Nobel Peace Prize odds as Ukraine prepares for another possible round of negotiations aimed at ending the war with Russia.
The Ukrainian president has continued to call for a settlement that protects his country’s sovereignty and includes meaningful security guarantees. Ukraine has also confirmed its willingness to participate in proposed trilateral talks involving Russia and the United States, potentially beginning later in October.
Zelenskyy’s position as the leader of a country at war makes his candidacy more complicated than those of the humanitarian organisations above him. A diplomatic breakthrough would strengthen his case considerably, but without one, the Norwegian Nobel Committee may prefer a contender more directly associated with humanitarian work, international law or conflict mediation.
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Pope Leo XIV’s repeated calls for dialogue across several major conflicts underpin his position among the favourites at 8/1.
The Pope has appealed for peace in Ukraine and the Middle East, while also urging the parties in Sudan’s conflict to lay down their arms and begin talks without preconditions. Those interventions have kept peace and the protection of civilians central to his public role.
Calls for dialogue alone may not be enough to win the prize, but a significant diplomatic breakthrough involving the Vatican could bring further attention to Pope Leo’s chances ahead of the announcement on 9 October.
Child protection is central to the case for Save the Children, which remains among the leading contenders at 9/1.
The organisation works to protect children affected by war, displacement and humanitarian emergencies. Its programmes include direct support for children and families, alongside advocacy aimed at preventing serious violations against children during armed conflicts.
Save the Children was highlighted alongside Mykola Kuleba in the PRIO director’s list of possible laureates. A joint or child-focused award would fit the work of both contenders, although the list does not reflect the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s deliberations.
Donald Trump is 12/1 to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, placing him behind the humanitarian organisations and political figures at the head of the market.
Leaders from Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan have said they submitted nominations supporting Trump. Because the Norwegian Nobel Committee does not confirm individual nominees, those claims cannot be independently verified and do not represent an endorsement from the committee.
Pakistan cited Trump’s diplomatic involvement in ending its four-day conflict with India, although India maintained that the ceasefire was agreed directly between the two militaries. The disagreement shows why his role in recent peace efforts remains open to different interpretations.
My prediction is Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 3/1, and I think they are worthy favourites because their case combines direct humanitarian impact with a grassroots model built and run by Sudanese civilians.
Unlike several political contenders, their claim does not depend on how the committee interprets a disputed diplomatic intervention. An award would recognise sustained civilian protection throughout an ongoing conflict, which gives the ERRs the strongest case in this field for me.
The Nobel Peace Prize is one of the annual Nobel Prizes and recognises efforts to advance peace, international cooperation and conflict resolution.
The Peace Prize was established under the terms of Swedish inventor and industrialist Alfred Nobel’s will and is awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
According to Nobel’s will, the prize should honour the person or organisation that has “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”
The Norwegian Nobel Committee consists of five members appointed by the Norwegian Parliament. Nominations can be submitted by qualified individuals, including members of national assemblies and governments, professors in relevant academic fields, members of international courts and previous laureates.
One reason the Nobel Peace Prize is so difficult to predict is that the names of nominees and nominators remain confidential for 50 years. Bettors and analysts must instead rely on publicly announced nomination claims, geopolitical developments and the latest Nobel Peace Prize odds. A public claim does not confirm that the committee has accepted a valid nomination.
Following the nomination deadline on 31 January, the committee reviews the candidates and commissions independent assessments before reaching its decision. The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on 9 October and formally presented at Oslo City Hall on 10 December.
The prize can also go unawarded if the committee determines that none of the candidates under consideration meets the required criteria.
Looking at previous winners can provide useful context when assessing the latest Nobel Peace Prize odds, although the committee has rewarded a varied mix of politicians, activists, humanitarian organisations and campaigners over the years.
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Maria Corina Machado |
| 2024 | Nihon Hidankyo |
| 2023 | Narges Mohammadi |
| 2022 | Ales Bialiatski, Memorial and Center for Civil Liberties |
| 2021 | Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov |
| 2020 | World Food Programme |
| 2019 | Abiy Ahmed Ali |
| 2018 | Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad |
| 2017 | International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) |
| 2016 | Juan Manuel Santos |
| 2015 | Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet |
| 2014 | Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai |
| 2013 | Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) |
| 2012 | European Union |
| 2011 | Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee and Tawakkol Karman |
| 2010 | Liu Xiaobo |
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms are the favourites in the latest 2026 Nobel Peace Prize odds. Their volunteer-led humanitarian work during Sudan’s conflict places them ahead of Doctors Without Borders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Yulia Navalnaya, UNRWA, Pope Leo XIV and Save the Children are also among the leading contenders before the winner is announced on 9 October.
There are 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organisations. The Norwegian Nobel Committee does not publish their names, and nomination records remain confidential for 50 years. Individual nominators may disclose whom they nominated, but the committee will neither confirm nor deny whether any person or organisation appears on the official list.
The winner is selected by the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee, whose members are appointed by the Norwegian Parliament. The committee reviews valid nominations, draws up a shortlist and commissions reports from permanent advisers and other Norwegian or international experts. It usually seeks consensus, although a simple majority vote is sufficient when the five members cannot reach agreement.
The committee assesses candidates against Alfred Nobel’s will, which refers to fraternity between nations, reducing standing armies and promoting peace congresses. After checking the nominations for validity, it creates a shortlist and gathers independent assessments of the candidates under consideration. The members meet regularly from February through September before making their final decision ahead of the October announcement.
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday 9 October at 11:00 CEST by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo. Nominations closed on 31 January, after which the committee began reviewing candidates, preparing a shortlist and commissioning further assessments. The laureate or laureates will receive the prize at the annual ceremony in Oslo City Hall on 10 December.
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