TIME Person of the Year Odds 2026: Mamdani Leads Carney

After TIME named the Architects of AI its 2025 Person of the Year, attention has turned to who could define 2026. The award is not decided by a public vote, but by TIME’s editors, who select the person, group or idea judged to have had the greatest influence on the year’s events, for better or worse.

Zohran Mamdani now leads the latest TIME Person of the Year odds, with Mark Carney, Pope Leo XIV and Donald Trump among his closest challengers. With the winner not announced until December, the betting could still change considerably as political, technological, scientific and cultural stories develop.

TIME Person of the Year odds

The table below lists the latest TIME Person of the Year odds for the leading contenders.

Odds provided by the Oddspedia odds comparison tool, accurate as of November 13, 2026.

2026 TIME Person of the Year odds favourites

Zohran Mamdani expands his national profile (+275 🔻 +175)

Zohran Mamdani leads the latest TIME Person of the Year odds after developing a national profile well beyond New York City. As mayor, his policy agenda and public interventions have made him one of the most closely watched political figures in the United States.

TIME’s Person of the Year recognises influence on the events of the year rather than popularity. Mamdani’s case depends on how far his political influence extends beyond New York and shapes the wider national debate.

Mark Carney’s response to US tensions draws attention (+2000 🔻 +350)

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged as one of the leading contenders following a year of significant economic and diplomatic activity.

Carney has sought to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States while strengthening economic and political ties with Europe. His response to changing trade relationships and efforts to reposition Canada internationally give him a credible case for recognition.

Pope Leo XIV continues to call for peace (+200 ▲ +700)

Three previous popes have received the award: Pope John XXIII in 1962, Pope John Paul II in 1994 and Pope Francis in 2013.

Pope Leo XIV renewed his appeal for peace in Ukraine in October and spoke with President Volodymyr Zelensky on 19 October about humanitarian assistance and efforts towards a ceasefire. His case could strengthen if the Vatican plays a significant role in diplomatic progress before the award is announced.

Donald Trump remains a central figure in world events (+250 ▲ +700)

Donald Trump has already received the award in 2016 and 2024. A third selection would put him alongside Franklin D. Roosevelt as a three-time winner.

Trump’s second presidency continues to generate major political and international news, from domestic policy to foreign affairs. His decisions also drive interest in other political markets, including our Trump exit date odds, and he remains one of the most influential figures in US politics.

Artificial intelligence remains a defining force (+800)

AI’s rapid development has kept the technology at the centre of debates about business, jobs, safety and regulation. Naming AI as a contender reflects the collective influence of the technology and the people and companies shaping its direction.

Benjamin Netanyahu remains at the centre of Israel’s political story (+1200)

Benjamin Netanyahu remains a prominent figure in Middle Eastern politics following Israel’s October 27 general election, which left his bloc with 53 seats, short of the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. On November 8, President Isaac Herzog tasked opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot with forming a new government.

Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while Eisenkot attempts to assemble a governing coalition. The negotiations could determine whether Netanyahu continues in office or moves into opposition, with the outcome adding another dimension to his influence on events in 2026.

Dario Amodei remains prominent in the AI debate (+800 ▲ +1400)

Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei has become a central figure in the debate over the development and regulation of artificial intelligence.

Amodei has argued for stronger safeguards and independent scrutiny as AI systems become more capable. With Anthropic competing at the forefront of the sector, his influence extends across technology, business and the wider discussion about how advanced AI should be governed.

2026 TIME Person of the Year odds sleeper

Christina Koch | +2400 ▲ +2500

Christina Koch has a compelling case for TIME recognition following her achievements in space exploration. Her record-setting time aboard the International Space Station established her as one of NASA’s most accomplished astronauts, while her role in the Artemis II mission connected her to one of the biggest scientific stories of 2026.

In April, Koch completed a 10-day flight around the Moon as part of the Artemis II crew, which travelled farther from Earth than any humans before them. The historic mission gives her a significant achievement to support her candidacy, although her odds have drifted slightly to +2500 as other contenders continue to attract attention.

TIME Person of the Year odds in full

Odds provided by William Hill, accurate as of November 13, 2026.

TIME Person of the Year FAQs

What are TIME Person of the Year odds?

TIME Person of the Year odds show which person, group or idea bookmakers consider most likely to be selected by TIME’s editors. Prices reflect market expectations about influence, media attention and impact on major events of the year. Since the choice is editorial, the odds can move as political, cultural, scientific and technological stories develop.

How are TIME Person of the Year odds priced?

Bookmakers set prices by assessing each contender’s perceived chances of selection and adjusting them as news and betting activity change. Shorter odds indicate a higher implied probability, but they do not guarantee that a contender will be chosen. TIME’s editors make the final decision.

Are sleeper picks worth considering in TIME Person of the Year odds?

Longer-priced contenders can be worth considering when there is a clear reason their influence could grow before TIME makes its decision. A major scientific achievement, political development or cultural event can change how a contender is viewed and move their odds. But a bigger price does not automatically represent better value, especially when the outcome depends on editorial judgement.