AFC Championship Odds 2025: Chiefs vs Bills … Who Ya Got?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have been among the top three favorites in AFC championship odds almost all season.

Now the much-anticipated matchup is a reality, as the AFC’s top two seeds will collide Sunday night in Kansas City for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl 59. It will be the ninth Chiefs-Bills meeting since the 2020-21 season, including the fourth playoff battle.

Buffalo has dominated the regular-season rivalry, winning the last four contests after dropping the first in October 2020. That includes a home victory in Week 11 this season. However, Kansas City has owned the Bills – and NFL MVP odds-on favorite Josh Allen – in January, winning three playoff games in the last four years (including a Divisional Round road upset last season).

Will the Chiefs’ playoff dominance of Buffalo continue Sunday? Oddsmakers believe so — but they’re hardly brimming with confidence, as is revealed in our latest AFC championship odds update.

Remember, all of the best sportsbooks will show different odds for your favorite teams, so consider line shopping prior to placing your futures wagers. Whether it’s AFC Championship odds or NFC Championship odds, or more, we have you covered. 

AFC Championship odds 2025

Odds provided by FanDuel – accurate as of January 21

AFC Championship odds: Best bet

Kansas City Chiefs (-125 at bet365 & DraftKings)

On paper and on the field, the Bills are every bit Kansas City’s equal. Even though the Chiefs are the second favorite on the Super Bowl odds board (next to Philly).

The fact the teams have split their last eight meetings by a differential of two points bears that out. But time and again, the Chiefs have proven to be the superior squad when it matters most. And that’s why they’re favored on the AFC championship odds board.

Yes, the last two playoff clashes could’ve gone the other way, as Kansas City prevailed 42-36 in overtime in 2021-22 in one of the most exciting games in playoff history, and also eked out a 27-24 win in Buffalo last year.

The bottom line, though, is the Chiefs have ended the Bills’ season three times in as many tries. That includes a 38-24 rout as a 3-point home favorite in the 2020-21 AFC championship game.

Then there’s that 16-2 playoff record that Kansas City has amassed the last six years, which includes a 4-1 mark in AFC title tilts.

At the same time, Buffalo has appeared in just one AFC championship game since 1993 (and it ended with that 14-point loss at Kansas City four years ago). The franchise also hasn’t won three games in a single postseason since 1992.

Does this mean the Bills don’t have a path to victory Sunday? Not at all. Nobody should be shocked if they keep the Chiefs from playing for an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl ring.

In the end, though, this is a “show me” situation. It’s also a “Who has the guts to bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs in January?” situation. 

Not us, hence the recommendation to lay the short price with Kansas City in what should be a tense, down-to-the-wire barnburner. 

You know, the kind Mahomes and the Chiefs usually win this time of year — and the kind Josh Allen and the Bills tend to lose.

Super Bowl odds comparison

AFC Championship odds 2025: Sportsbooks give Chiefs a slight edge over Buffalo

The Chiefs had a relatively easy go of it in their first contest of the postseason, taking out the overmatched Houston Texans 23-14 in the Divisional Round.

With that, Kansas City improved to 21-1 in its last 22 games that quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the starters suited up. The Chiefs also are now 16-2 in their last 18 playoff games, winning the last eight in a row. And they are in the AFC championship game for the seventh consecutive season, with six of those being played in Kansas City.

So why do oddsmakers view Sunday’s Chiefs-Bills clash as a virtual pick-em? Especially considering Buffalo nearly squandered multiple double-digit leads against Baltimore in their AFC Divisional contest, barely escaping with a 27-25 victory? And considering the Bills are 0-for-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs in the past four years?

Answer: Because every time the Chiefs and Bills hook up, it’s a virtual pick-em.

Each of the last seven meetings have featured a closing point spread of 3 points or less, with the last six being 2.5 points or less. As previously noted, the teams have split eight head-to-head battles in the last five years, with the Chiefs going 2-1 in Buffalo and the Bills going 3-2 in Kansas City.

Four games were blowouts (decided by nine points or more). And four were competitive (three decided by a total of 10 points, and another ended in overtime).

Now get this: The Chiefs have put up 211 points across these eight head-to-head battles. The Bills? 213 points. All of this explains why Kansas City is a miniscule 1.5- to 2-point home favorite Sunday. And why the moneyline is super tight.

The Chiefs stretch from -125 (bet365 and DraftKings) to -134 (BetRivers) to win their fifth AFC title in the last six years. Slotted between those extremes are bet365 and DraftKings (both -125), and FanDuel (-126).

The buy back on Buffalo’s side is +104 at BetRivers; +105 at bet365 and DraftKings; +108 at FanDuel; and +110 at BetMGM and Caesars. Think the latest Bills-Chiefs clash will end up as lopsided as the Week 11 meeting in Buffalo? Alternative point spreads are available on each squad at every major sportsbook.

For instance, Chiefs -8.5 is +265 at FanDuel, while Bills -8.5 is +390 at FanDuel.

AFC Championship betting action

When an NFL franchise has appeared in six consecutive conference title games (and won four of them), it is bound to draw a ton of futures action.

Sure enough, BetMGM reported Monday that more AFC championship bets have been placed on the Chiefs than any other team — almost one out of every five tickets (19.5%).

Also not surprising is the fact that Baltimore (15.2%) and Buffalo (14.1%) rank second and third, respectively in ticket count.

When it comes to Super Bowl betting handle at BetMGM, though, Baltimore still paces the field. Nearly 36% of all dollars are on the now-eliminated Ravens.

Kansas City accounts for the second-most cash in BetMGM’s AFC championship market at 27.3%. The Bills (9.0%) are a distant third in AFC futures handle.

AFC Championship betting trends

Since the turn of the century, six franchises have owned the AFC.

Four of those franchises won two AFC championships (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Denver); one has taken home four Lamar Hunt Trophies (Kansas City, all in the last five years); and one has represented the AFC in the Super Bowl nine times (New England).

The only other AFC champions during the past quarter century: the then-Oakland Raiders (2002) and the Bengals (2021).

To repeat, the Chiefs are in the midst of an incredible five-year run that has produced four AFC titles. However, no team — not the Patriots during their dynasty this century, not the Steelers during their 1970s heyday — has ever reached the Super Bowl five times in six years.

While that bit of history is working against Kansas City, one AFC championship odds trend supports the two-time defending champs in 2024: Since the 2011-12 campaign, only three teams reached the Super Bowl after starting a season with AFC title odds longer than +350 — and K.C. was one of the three.

The Chiefs entered the 2022-23 season at +500 to take the AFC. The other two outliers: the Ravens (+700 preseason AFC championship odds in 2012-2013) and Bengals (+8000 in 2021).

Speaking of the 2021 Bengals, they’re joined by the 2001-02 Patriots (+2000) and 2010-11 Steelers (+1000) as the only AFC champs that had preseason conference title odds greater than +900.

Lastly, placing an AFC championship futures wager on the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, or Jacksonville Jaguars takes a huge leap of faith. Because none of those franchises has ever won an AFC title (although the Jets won the 1968 AFL championship — and subsequently, Super Bowl III — prior to the AFL-NFL merger).

Additionally, the Jets, Chargers, and Tennessee Titans each have played in the Super Bowl just once.

Our best NFL betting sites

To make sure you get the most value on your NFL odds, go to the best NFL betting sites prior to placing your wagers throughout the season.

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